Texas Fall-2015

[gboudx]

I need to get some firewood soon too. Got a 1/3 cord last year and it was way too much. Think I'll get a 1/4 cord this year.

[CaptinCrunch]

I need to get some firewood soon too. Got a 1/3 cord last year and it was way too much. Think I'll get a 1/4 cord this year.

I burned a full cord last year and have another Full Cord coming this year. Since it's a mix of Oak and Mesquite I'll have plenty for the smoker and fire pit as well.

[Ntxw]

I've been thinking about the same question, how much will be needed. Kind of mixed feelings, I think the El Nino will prevent big arctic outbreaks ala 2013 and 2014 (was a Nino but a weak one). I want to the see the state of the EPO first in October to buy.

Here are some numbers for various Nino winters for DFW.

Four very cold and snowy El Nino winters, all four are top 10 coldest

1963-1964 (ONI 1.2C moderate) 15.3 inches snow; 61 freezes; lowest temperature 4F ---when combined was a doozy, very low temps (major outbreak) lots of snow and freezes
1976-1977 (ONI 0.8C weak) 10.4 inches snow; 51 freezes; lowest temperature 10F
1977-1978 (ONI 0.8C weak) 17.6 inches snow; 62 freezes; lowest temperature 9F ---Coldest and snowiest on record all years
2009-2010 (ONI 1.3C moderate) 17.1 inches snow; 45 freezes; lowest temperature 13F

The three Super El Nino's; this year's El Nino will likely fall into this category

1972-1973 (ONI 2.0C Super Strong) 3.7 inches snow; 36 freezes; lowest temperature 8F
1982-1983 (ONI 2.1C Super Strong) Trace inches snow; 27 freezes; lowest temperature 22F
1997-1998 (ONI 2.3C Super Strong) 0.5 inches snow; 25 freezes; lowest temperature 23F

And here are the strong El Nino's but not quite super

1957-1958 (ONI 1.7C Strong) 0.9 inches snow; 36 freezes; lowest temperature 18F
1965-1966 (ONI 1.8C Strong) 7.3 inches snow; 31 freezes; lowest temperature 9F
1987-1988 (ONI 1.6C Strong) 3.5 inches snow; 48 freezes; lowest temperature 16F
1991-1992 (ONI 1.6C Strong) Trace inches snow; 22 freezes; lowest temperature 17F

note* is not all El Nino's just some that standout, years left out that have little resemblance to this event...1951-52, 1952-53, 1958-59, 1968-69, 1969-70, 1986-87, 1994-95, 2002-03, 2006-07, 2014-15.

[JDawg512]

We get our wood from trimming branches in the yard and usually have enough wood to last the winter and in some cases too much. Actually gonna be out there this evening cutting branches that have died over the summer.

Today's EWX update at least has some uncertainty back in the picture instead of warm and dry. They don't have a lot of confidence in much rainfall though but at least temps should drop a few degrees.

[CaptinCrunch]

I'm a pyro, so any day in which the max high is 55 or less I'm lighting the fireplace. I either want the windows open to keep the a nice cool breeze moving through or heat the house via fireplace. Saves on the $$$$ of using the heater.

Oh, and tree limbs never make it pass the fire pit....lol

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I've been thinking about the same question, how much will be needed. Kind of mixed feelings, I think the El Nino will prevent big arctic outbreaks ala 2013 and 2014 (was a Nino but a weak one). I want to the see the state of the EPO first in October to buy.

Here are some numbers for various Nino winters for DFW.

Four very cold and snowy El Nino winters, all four are top 10 coldest

1963-1964 (ONI 1.2C moderate) 15.3 inches snow; 61 freezes; lowest temperature 4F ---when combined was a doozy, very low temps (major outbreak) lots of snow and freezes
1976-1977 (ONI 0.8C weak) 10.4 inches snow; 51 freezes; lowest temperature 10F
1977-1978 (ONI 0.8C weak) 17.6 inches snow; 62 freezes; lowest temperature 9F ---Coldest and snowiest on record all years
2009-2010 (ONI 1.3C moderate) 17.1 inches snow; 45 freezes; lowest temperature 13F

The three Super El Nino's; this year's El Nino will likely fall into this category

1972-1973 (ONI 2.0C Super Strong) 3.7 inches snow; 36 freezes; lowest temperature 8F
1982-1983 (ONI 2.1C Super Strong) Trace inches snow; 27 freezes; lowest temperature 22F
1997-1998 (ONI 2.3C Super Strong) 0.5 inches snow; 25 freezes; lowest temperature 23F

And here are the strong El Nino's but not quite super

1957-1958 (ONI 1.7C Strong) 0.9 inches snow; 36 freezes; lowest temperature 18F
1965-1966 (ONI 1.8C Strong) 7.3 inches snow; 31 freezes; lowest temperature 9F
1987-1988 (ONI 1.6C Strong) 3.5 inches snow; 48 freezes; lowest temperature 16F
1991-1992 (ONI 1.6C Strong) Trace inches snow; 22 freezes; lowest temperature 17F

note* is not all El Nino's just some that standout, years left out that have little resemblance to this event...1951-52, 1952-53, 1958-59, 1968-69, 1969-70, 1986-87, 1994-95, 2002-03, 2006-07, 2014-15.

Great analysis Ntx. I thought '13-'14 was full of Arctic Outbreaks? This was the year of the blob which brought many solid arctic outbreaks but there was no moisture to be found.

This Nino is considered a super nino but some things to note. How will it peaking in as early as October effect the DJF time? What if it is a modiki-nino around the DJF time frame? The warm water in the eastern pacific, will this bring around any arctic air with moisture undercutting the high off the west coast? Or how often will be have the huge 'bowling ball' type of systems coming for the Southern Plains.

Ive done some of my own little research by comparing SST's and i think '72-'73 is the best analog we will have to this year. One thing about '72-'73 is that there was a large area of colder than normal water just south of Greenland like we do now. It also had a blob of warm water in the NE Pacific. Take it for what its worth but man i am pumped for this winter.

[Ntxw]

Great analysis Ntx. I thought '13-'14 was full of Arctic Outbreaks? This was the year of the blob which brought many solid arctic outbreaks but there was no moisture to be found.

This Nino is considered a super nino but some things to note. How will it peaking in as early as October effect the DJF time? What if it is a modiki-nino around the DJF time frame? The warm water in the eastern pacific, will this bring around any arctic air with moisture undercutting the high off the west coast? Or how often will be have the huge 'bowling ball' type of systems coming for the Southern Plains.

Ive done some of my own little research by comparing SST's and i think '72-'73 is the best analog we will have to this year. One thing about '72-'73 is that there was a large area of colder than normal water just south of Greenland like we do now. It also had a blob of warm water in the NE Pacific. Take it for what its worth but man i am pumped for this winter.

I meant not the same as 2013-2014 which featured many arctic outbreaks. Peak is a relative term, it's greatest weekly readings will be in October or November. But ONI is calculated by three months with lag as it is a seasonal phenomenon so Nov-Jan peak is likely regarding to official count. Modoki by definition is different, this is not a modoki. You can have different regions be warmer than other regions at various times during a Nino event. To qualify the majority of the event must be La Nina like (near 0C) for most of the ENSO event to qualify. What we would like to see is tropical forcing (thunderstorms) to focus in Nino 4 and 3.4 during the winter which means weakening or quick retreating of the El Nino. As it does so, cooling happens quickest in Nino 1+2 thus resembles modoki. This is why Feb/March in Nino's are often the coldest months when it rapidly cools.

But of course, El Nino is not the only game in town other things are at play as well. I only reference it the most because it's the most glaring signal. Mother nature sometimes will throw a wrench and do what she wants

You know, Houston's 30+ inches of snow happened during an El Nino in 1896!

[wxman57]

I am not seeing anything colder than we've already had until beyond 10 days. I have Oct. 18th as my pick for the first 49F temp at IAH in our office cold front pool. I'm beginning to wonder if my pick is too early.

[Ntxw]

This September is going to end up one of the warmest (top 10) for DFW. I don't know the records for IAH and Austin but I think it's up there too. The nearest warm September year similar is 2013 and the warmest is 2005.

Average for September is 78F. We haven't had a cooler Sept than average since 2009.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

That houston snow event was in 1895, didnt know it was an el nino but with that much moisture for a snow even it likely had to be! Dont get my hopes up!

[Brent]

18z GFS canceled the cold front next week... shocker... I swear, is it just me or are summers getting longer?

Can't believe this actually happened

.CLIMATE...
THIS DAY IN HISTORY - SEPTEMBER 22, 1983

FOR THOSE OF US LONGING FOR THE ARRIVAL OF MORE AUTUMNLIKE
WEATHER...CONSIDER THE STRONG COLD FRONT OF SEPTEMBER 1983. ON THE
MORNING OF SEPTEMBER 22...TEMPERATURES DROPPED BELOW 40 DEGREES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE COLDEST OBSERVED TEMPERATURE
WAS 35 DEGREES AT BOTH BRIDGEPORT AND LAMPASAS. THE MERCURY ALSO
DIPPED INTO THE 30S AT ATHENS...EMORY...EASTLAND...EVANT...
GAINESVILLE...GLEN ROSE...GRAHAM...HICO...LAKE WHITNEY DAM...
MCKINNEY...AND WEATHERFORD. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT THE EARLIEST IN
THE SEASON FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S IN NORTH TEXAS...IT IS
CERTAINLY THE MOST WIDESPREAD EARLY SEASON FROST.

&&

[Ntxw]

That houston snow event was in 1895, didnt know it was an el nino but with that much moisture for a snow even it likely had to be! Dont get my hopes up!

Stand corrected! It was Feb 1895. I remember last winter doing a re-analysis of that event and the 500mb pattern was very similar to 2009-10 and 1976-1977, 1977-1978. Houston and the gulf coast cashed in with a monster gulf storm probably and probably was like a sub 999 system deepening in the gulf of Mexico. Supercharged version of Christmas 2004?

18z GFS canceled the cold front next week... shocker... I swear, is it just me or are summers getting longer?

Can't believe this actually happened

A few months later December 1983 happened!

[Brent]

On the bright side... maybe we're getting the above normal temps out of the way before winter.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looking at analogs, 76-77 looks similar to this year except the equatorial pacific is a bit warmer. The cold pool of water south of Greenland will be key. This will promote blocking in Greenland. Great now i will be looking at analogs all night!

[JDawg512]

I'm a pyro, so any day in which the max high is 55 or less I'm lighting the fireplace. I either want the windows open to keep the a nice cool breeze moving through or heat the house via fireplace. Saves on the $$$$ of using the heater.

Oh, and tree limbs never make it pass the fire pit....lol

Yea most of the tree branches we chop is burned in one or the other of our outdoor fire pits. If it's hard wood and larger logs then I'll use in the fireplace.

At this point I don't care as much about the temps as I am about the rain. We need wide spread rain to return and we need it asap.

[weatherdude1108]

I'm a pyro, so any day in which the max high is 55 or less I'm lighting the fireplace. I either want the windows open to keep the a nice cool breeze moving through or heat the house via fireplace. Saves on the $$$$ of using the heater.

Oh, and tree limbs never make it pass the fire pit....lol

Yea most of the tree branches we chop is burned in one or the other of our outdoor fire pits. If it's hard wood and larger logs then I'll use in the fireplace.

At this point I don't care as much about the temps as I am about the rain. We need wide spread rain to return and we need it asap.

AGREED! We are getting desperate for rain down here.
The trees and bushes that were lush in May and June look stressed with the flash drought and have already been turning brown and dropping leaves. We need steady rain followed by a flash flood.

[Brent]

Looking at analogs, 76-77 looks similar to this year except the equatorial pacific is a bit warmer. The cold pool of water south of Greenland will be key. This will promote blocking in Greenland. Great now i will be looking at analogs all night!

Mmmmm I like that analog.

[ravyrn]

Old Man Summer's days are numbered! Fall will soon be upon us!

[weatherdude1108]

Old Man Summer's days are numbered! Fall will soon be upon us!

NICE!

[Ntxw]

Happy astronomical fall! Our days now become shorter than nights!