ATL: IDA - Models

#21 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Sep 20, 2015 10:30 am

GFS back to a major at 948MB:

#22 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Sep 20, 2015 1:09 pm

The ECMWF continues to depict a complex interaction with Ida and a trough which results in a baroclinically-enhanced storm with strengthening though the forecast period and a 987MB system by hour 96.

Hammy · #23 Postby **Hammy** » Sun Sep 20, 2015 5:44 pm

Model runs are starting to remind me of Ophelia in 2011 where you had a highly sheared storm weaken, interact with a trough, stall out, and then strengthen fairly quickly as it moved north.

YoshiMike · #24 Postby **YoshiMike** » Sun Sep 20, 2015 6:11 pm

Think there's a chance if this turning and hitting the northeast US? I dont know how to find model sites

Hammy · #25 Postby **Hammy** » Sun Sep 20, 2015 7:20 pm

YoshiMike wrote:Think there's a chance if this turning and hitting the northeast US? I dont know how to find model sites

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
Main (non-fee) site that's posted here for the model runs.

As far as the track, every indication given by the models so far is that it will likely stall for some time and then be picked up by a trough and flung out to sea. The only place that -might- be impacted (and even then a fairly low chance at this point) is Newfoundland.

#26 Postby **Alyono** » Sun Sep 20, 2015 11:52 pm

MU has this threatening Nova Scotia and Newfoundland

Hammy · #27 Postby **Hammy** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 1:48 am

Euro not only dropped major hurricane status but also shorter-term hurricane status. I'm guessing this just stays at 45-50 intensity through the duration and dissipates in a few days once it runs into more shear.

#28 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 2:04 am

Hammy wrote:Euro not only dropped major hurricane status but also shorter-term hurricane status. I'm guessing this just stays at 45-50 intensity through the duration and dissipates in a few days once it runs into more shear.

what euro are you looking at? I'm seeing a cane or a strong TS from days 6-10

Hammy · #29 Postby **Hammy** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 2:20 am

Alyono wrote:
Hammy wrote:Euro not only dropped major hurricane status but also shorter-term hurricane status. I'm guessing this just stays at 45-50 intensity through the duration and dissipates in a few days once it runs into more shear.

what euro are you looking at? I'm seeing a cane or a strong TS from days 6-10

Cat 1 was shown within 96 hours in earlier runs, now it's showing barely TS intensity through 120 hours, and after Erika (as well as Euro's several Cat 2-3 model storms) I'm discarding anything beyond five days.

Hammy · #30 Postby **Hammy** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 11:58 pm

If I'm reading into the model run correctly the GFS appears to forecast Ida's center to redevelop to the east within 48 hours or so.

Hammy · #31 Postby **Hammy** » Tue Sep 22, 2015 1:19 am

Euro showing significant weakening beyond 72 hours.

Hammy · #32 Postby **Hammy** » Tue Sep 22, 2015 5:53 pm

I see the models today have returned to reality in showing a continually weak system through the runs.

Hammy · #33 Postby **Hammy** » Tue Sep 22, 2015 8:51 pm

spiral wrote::uarrow: Hoping to track a long lived fish here and you keep hosing it down are you a firefighter.

If GFS is right we could still get a long tracker, even if weak, and reach 30 ACE.

Edit: Interestingly the Euro from several days ago may have nailed this, at least the first part of the run, if the UK model plays out. The appearance on that model looks very much subtropical.

#34 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Sep 22, 2015 8:56 pm

Look at all the models that are showing it heading west now on the 00Z guidance, with the ECMWF first showing this in the 12Z run. Compare that to the 18Z (second graphic). Throw out the GFDI and NVGI (NAVGEM) as they are not good models and the entire suite looks nothing like the 18Z. What will the NHC track do at 11pmEST I wonder?

00Z (latest):

18Z (previous):

Hurricaneman · #35 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Tue Sep 22, 2015 10:54 pm

If the models keep shifting west maybe Bermuda may need to watch this in case it gets farther west than inticapated

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#36 Postby **Alyono** » Tue Sep 22, 2015 11:32 pm

MU now dissipates Ida in a few days. That solution may make the most sense given the very destructive mid level shear it will be encountering during the next several days

#37 Postby **tolakram** » Wed Sep 23, 2015 6:13 am

So in 24 hours the 0Z Euro shows Ida hundreds of miles east of the current position and significantly stronger.

At the end of the run it's strong and headed NW.

Every run is a little different.

#38 Postby **Alyono** » Wed Sep 23, 2015 6:36 am

the entire 0Z ECMWF run is not worth anything. Everything looks bizarre world wide in terms of the TC solutions

#39 Postby **NDG** » Wed Sep 23, 2015 7:38 am

Don't forget that the Euro last weekend was forecasting Ida to become a major Hurricane this weekend, so anything past its 5 day range forecast is up to suspicion.

Hammy · #40 Postby **Hammy** » Wed Sep 23, 2015 1:39 pm

Euro finally joined reality and shows barely a TD through 168 hours.

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