Expect fewer major landfalling hurricanes in the future

[JetMaxx]

Not because there will be fewer hurricanes or intense hurricanes; but instead because of new technology that can tell forecasters and researchers much more accurately what's going on inside a hurricane as it makes landfall.

There is no doubt in my mind that if hurricane Isabel had struck North Carolina before 1960, it would have been classified a category 3 hurricane at landfall......because hurricanes Connie and Ione were neither as intense as hurricane Isabel...yet both are listed by the National Hurricane Center as major landfalling U.S. hurricanes.

Here are a few other recent strong hurricanes that struck the U.S. that were rated cat-2...but would also likely have been rated cat-3 hurricanes at landfall before 1990:

1991 Bob (962 mb)
1998 Bonnie (963 mb)
1998 Georges (964 mb)
1999 Floyd (955 mb)

In 1985, hurricane Gloria was rated a major hurricane at landfall in North Carolina (942 mb) and Long Island, New York (961 mb)...based on hurricane hunter central pressures and flight level winds. In reality, hurricane Gloria was a 100 mph cat-2 in North Carolina and a 80-85 mph cat-1 on Long Island...

On the other hand, here's a listing of hurricanes betwen 1911 and 1990 that likely weren't major hurricanes at U.S. landfall--based on observed surface winds and tides....and some of these may surprise you.

Sept 1917 Florida panhandle (958 mb) peak wind gusts in the Pensacola and Fort Walton areas were less than 120 mph.

Oct 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane (952 mb) winds and tides don't justify the cat-3 rating assigned by NHC. In reality, the last major hurricane to strike Tampa directly occurred in Sept 1848....155 years ago. :o

June 1934 Louisiana (949 mb) hit sparsely populated area near Morgan City. Winds and tides don't justify NHC cat-3 rating.

July 1936 Florida panhandle (964 mb) no gusts in excess of 110 mph reported.

Oct 1944 SW Florida (962 mb) borderline cat 2/3...tides were high enough (11-12') near Venice and Fort Myers to justify cat-3 status...but wind gusts were generally less than 115 mph.

1955 Connie (962 mb) and Ione (960 mb)....neither was any stronger (based on observed wind gusts and tides) in North Carolina than Isabel.

1974 Carmen (952 mb) similar to Lili last year, a 150 mph monster in the Gulf of Mexico, but dry air took it's toll as Carmen neared Louisiana south of Houma and Morgan City. Highest landfall wind gusts were less than 115 mph (max sustained wind of 86 mph recorded in Morgan City justifies cat-1 rating).

1985 Gloria...which I've already discussed above.

And there are probably others I've missed since 1910. The NOAA HURDAT project is planning to re-evaluate hurricanes of the 1911 to 1950 era....and just as they downgraded the Sept 1909 Louisiana cat-4 to a cat-3, don't be surprised to see some changes...

PW

[Toni - 574]

Hey JettMaxx, your info is always interesting to read, especially about the major in the Tampa area. 155 years is a very long time!

[Anonymous]

Agree JetMaxx. Major hurricanes may be even more uncommon than we thought if you go back and recalculate some of the older storm taking the exact wind speed at landfall into account.

[wxman57]

Concerning Tampa, what about:

1950 - Hurricane Easy -- 105kts 958mb. Went right into the mouth of Tampa Bay.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

[vbhoutex]

Very interesting Perry and it makes all the sense in the world!!! So that begs the question of whether they should go back and reassess???

[JetMaxx]

Hurricane Easy was a very small cat-3....and was far enough north of Tampa Bay, at least to satisfy NHC, to not call it a direct hit. Easy did have the distinction of causing the highest tide levels (10') in Tampa/ St Pete since the 1921 hurricane.

Easy is considered a direct hit in Pasco county northward to Cedar Key....where it caused the greatest damage.

FYI - hurricane Easy is another one that needs to be re-evaluated. The peak wind gust reported during the hurricane was 125 mph gust at Cedar Key (central pressure was 958 mb at landfall).

[GalvestonDuck]

Dude...do you have an almanac or searchable database or something where you keep all this info or what?

I'd be half-blind looking at every past hurricane's tracking info and so forth just to find the ones that match the certain criteria that I'm trying to research.

How do you do it? Regardless, thank you for doing it. Always interesting.

[JetMaxx]

They need to do something David....if nothing else, the for the statistical record.

Either raise hurricanes Floyd and Isabel to cat-3...or lower Connie and Ione to cat-2....because they were no more intense than Floyd and Isabel at landfall...if as strong.

[JetMaxx]

Dude...do you have an almanac or searchable database or something where you keep all this info or what?

I'd be half-blind looking at every past hurricane's tracking info and so forth just to find the ones that match the certain criteria that I'm trying to research.

How do you do it? Regardless, thank you for doing it. Always interesting.

Thanks....I grew up in libraries and the local NWS office. From age 12 all I wanted to do was study severe storm outbreaks and hurricanes. At one time, I owned
all the Weatherwise magazines that featured hurricanes and tornadoes from 1954 to 1980. How I learned about hurricanes such as Hazel and Donna.

I have satellite photos of hurricane Allen and Frederic that NHC forecaster Robert Case mailed me....as well as the advisories on hurricane Camille. I made a habit of mailing the National Hurricane Center every winter after a major hurricane....to obtain a copy of the NHC report...from Donna to Fran. Of course now it's much easier with the internet....but I enjoyed tracking hurricanes by shortwave radio, recieving the 72 hour forecast marine advisories via USCG frequencies

I have an old worn, ragged book a NHC forecaster sent me in 1982....with the hurricane charts to every year from 1871 to 1980 (and I've added the years since...up to 2000 when I came onboard the internet). That's how I learned....and did the same thing about tornadoes; sending regular requests for information to the National Severe Storms Forecast Center.

I also drove all over the southeast, visiting libraries to read books about past hurricanes and tornadoes....visiting different NWS offices to read through their archived weather information (how I learned the April 6th, 1936 killer tornado in Gainesville, Georgia occurred with a temp/ dewpoint of only 65°/62°).

I didn't learn it in a short time....but over the years, I've learned about all the monster storms of the past; and the atmospheric conditions that spawned them....why I was so concerned about Isabel -- North Carolina and Virginia were fortunate....the pattern was very reminiscent of October 1954...and the atmospheric setup that spawned hurricane Hazel.

Everyone today can learn what I have about past hurricanes without driving all over the country visiting NWS offices and libraries or writing to recieve every NHC preliminary hurricane report. It's all online...at the Unisys hurricane website and the National Hurricane Center archives.

[AussieMark]

Also if you have the time to download you can the NHC preliminary reports on Hurricanes from 1958 - 1994 in scanned report format.

I used it to find info about Hurricane Gilbert and Joan - 1988.

Do you know where I can acquire some satellite images of Hurricane Joan 1988 or Hurricane Kate 1985.

[AussieMark]

Was Hurricane Donna a major hurricane when she struck The midAtlantic - New England or do you feel the same way as I do and consider the strike or the Mid Atlantic northward as a Category 2 Strike.