Posible GOM development?

[wxman57]

Here's the worst the EC is predicting - a broad low pressure area (1007mb) with widespread 15-20kt winds. Looks reasonable.

[stormlover2013]

wx where does euro have it moving in?

[Nimbus]

There is a circulation centered over the Florida Pan handle that may account for a weak surface low in the northeastern gulf. If its a mid level circulation it will need some convection to drop the surface pressures.

NHC seems more interested in the Caribbean energy forecast to move in to the mid gulf early next week.

[NDG]

I would had thought the NHC would had been raising the percentages by now for the 5 day forecast (through Tuesday) since the GFS is showing that there could be a closed surface low pressure forming in the southern GOM as soon as Sunday. It seems like they are not that confident that a tropical and or subtropical system will form, I don't blame them, there's a lot of shear in the GOM.

[NDG]

There is a circulation centered over the Florida Pan handle that may account for a weak surface low in the northeastern gulf. If its a mid level circulation it will need some convection to drop the surface pressures.

NHC seems more interested in the Caribbean energy forecast to move in to the mid gulf early next week.

The circulation over the FL Panhandle is an upper level low, no surface low there will be developing.

[caneman]

Larrywx. King Euro? Hardly. Do you have some facts.to supoort this? One should always consider all model outputs. Especially considering the poor performances this year.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Euro and Gfs seem to have did a flip flop this year

[stormlover2013]

GFS hasn't been that impressive either my friend all the models have struggled

[rolltide]

Larrywx. King Euro? Hardly. Do you have some facts.to supoort this? One should always consider all model outputs. Especially considering the poor performances this year.

Wow, lighten up dude. It's just a common nickname due it's performance vs other models over the last few years.

[Steve]

caneman hates model wars and he hates state-caster wars. I don't blame him. I actually think people should be forced to put in their location so when you read someone you don't know, you can glance over and see if they have possibly have a vested interest in their "it's going to Texas not Florida; Florida not North Carolina or North Carolina not Texas" statements.

[Dean4Storms]

If the 12z ECM is correct it will have a hard time bundling energy with multiple Low pressure areas over the Gulf.

I'm like WXman57, a weak TS is possible but the biggest threat from this might just be rain.

[psyclone]

I tend to think of a situation like this as primarily a deep slug of moisture advecting up into gulf from the tropics with an attendant heavy rain/flood threat and a remote (probably very remote) tc genesis threat/potential. Unless we see evidence to the contrary any other speculation should be thought of no differently than the old arcade fortune tellers: for entertainment only.

[caneman]

Thanks Steve. You're right I hate the hyperbole and the modeling wars. I come on here to learn. I know the Euro has had a good year or two but I believe it doesn't serve to board well or newbies to see these types of overinflated claims. The NHC uses a blend and will sometimes bias towards one or another models performance. No offense to you LarryWx, I'm sorry if it came of that way. I really enjoy your posts.

[wxman57]

wx where does euro have it moving in?

There's no specific point where it moves inland. The EC has several vortices rotating around the large, weak low. That one near the Gulf Coast on the image above moves NNW into around the MS/AL border. But don't focus on that, as squalls will likely be displaced well east and northeast of any low center.

[davidiowx]

caneman hates model wars and he hates state-caster wars. I don't blame him. I actually think people should be forced to put in their location so when you read someone you don't know, you can glance over and see if they have possibly have a vested interest in their "it's going to Texas not Florida; Florida not North Carolina or North Carolina not Texas" statements.

I agree with this wholeheartedly.

[stormlover2013]

What are the ensembles showing ?

[Weatherwatcher98]

Thanks Steve. You're right I hate the hyperbole and the modeling wars. I come on here to learn. I know the Euro has had a good year or two but I believe it doesn't serve to board well or newbies to see these types of overinflated claims. The NHC uses a blend and will sometimes bias towards one or another models performance. No offense to you LarryWx, I'm sorry if it came of that way. I really enjoy your posts.

All the models have struggled this year with this El Nino it seems.

[N2FSU]

What are the ensembles showing ?

[N2FSU]

What are the ensembles showing ?

[Steve]

18z GFS does less with the Gulf system. I didn't look at the surface winds, but I can't imagine them being that strong in this run since it barely closes off anything. Heaviest rainfall is centered over Mobile Bay (through 8 days) in the 5-10" range. A swath of 4-5" crosses lower Plaquemines parish, the Chandeleur Islands (if they even still exist) and into Jackson County, MS.