2015 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Indeed. EURO for the past 4-5 runs has been showing some dateline activity as we head into October.

2300z



2312z



2400z with a SCS system



Latest 2412z run shows Mujigae and Choi-wan with the latter headed for the Marianas!

[euro6208]

GFS had been showing a monster Category 5 Super Typhoon strengthening near the dateline and recurving just in time misses the Marianas but dropped the idea. Latest run only shows 2 weak LPAs.

[euro6208]

12Z EURO dropped Choi-wan as it develops that into a CPAC system.

It still develops Mujigae near the dateline and races it westward towards the Marianas. Big shift south from the 00Z run and stronger by 2 mb. Still very long range so anything can happen.

[euro6208]

12Z GFS has twins yet again in the basin with Mujigae and developing Choi-wan to the east.



Bottoms Mujigae to 943 mb as it recurves and potent Choi-wan approaching the Marianas from the east! The last few frames has it moving to the west northwest.

[euro6208]

Now how about 3 category 5's with two of them in the WPAC?

Question now is what storm, Mujigae and Choi-wan, will make the greatest impact on the Marianas. 12Z was Choi-wan, now 18Z is Mujigae passing it north of Saipan or will both impact?

[1900hurricane]

Many who track the Western Pacific tropics have been waiting to see what this October brings, myself included. Now, as we draw to within a week of the most prolific month of the year for super typhoons climatologically, things are looking ripe. Of particular note is a westerly wind burst just now starting to winds up and set to progress east of the International Dateline. This should promote an active monsoon trough near the dateline for storms to move west and develop from. Many of the strongest and longest lasting El Nino typhoons developed from similar setups, including several from 1997. In fact, this graphic from the 1997 JTWC Report illustrates the process quite well.



If the dateline activity that most of the numerical models are picking up on comes to fruition, we could be looking at some ACE monsters.

[euro6208]

2015 is remarkably almost identical to 1997 but more active in the MT category.

Here is the stats as we head into October for both years.

1997:

24 TS
15 TY
8 MT
6 Cat 5

2015:

24 ts
15 ty
11 potential 12
5 Cat 5 potential 6

If Dujuan becomes a MT and a Cat 5, 2015 would be at 12 and 6.

I wonder if 2015 can keep on pace. This is how 1997 ended.

[1900hurricane]

The first few days of October might still be quiet, but I'm thinking stuff will start to get going near the end of the first week for sure, which is near the ending timeframe of the graphic above. On next weeks update, I'd be very surprised if I didn't see some red hatching out near the dateline.

[euro6208]

Looks like we have another threat down the road and this came out of nowhere. It's located southeast of Guam and EURO keeps this weak for the next 144 hours, makes landfall over Luzon, and strengthens it to Mujigae, Choi-wan, or Koppu in 168 hours.

It makes landfall over Hainan as a typhoon and literally stalls it over the Gulf of Tonkin...

[euro6208]

EURO no longer shows a Marianas system. It develops twins near the dateline, Mujigae, Choi-wan, or Koppu and strengthens both into typhoons. One of them moves toward the Marianas, the other moves into the CPAC.

[euro6208]

00Z GFS no longer showing the twin Cat 5's and dropped Choi-wan.

Here is Mujigae at peak recurving...

[mrbagyo]

The monsoon trough extends 170 E to as far as 165 W

Then there's a wave south east of Guam

[euro6208]

99W THREAD UP FOR DATELINE MONSTER

[1900hurricane]

I wouldn't put too much stock in modeled intensity this far out. How many model runs showed Dujuan getting as intense as it now is several days before it got named? The important thing is pretty much all numerical guidance is consistent in showing some sort of development.

That 00Z ECMWF run was weird. Two dateline tropical cyclones developing from the monsoon trough and then moving east/west away from each other? That'd be way cool to see, but I highly doubt we'll see something like that.

[dexterlabio]

Models have been not so reliable track-wise for the past few weeks. Maybe I am wrong but also I noticed the big guys (GFS, ECMWF, etc.) haven't been so good at sniffing out development either. They're either overdeveloping phantom storms (mostly Cat5's) or keeping a blind eye on a system that turned out to be a strong one later on.

[1900hurricane]

Posted by Abraham Levy on Twitter, that westerly wind burst will be coming on strong. Keep in mind this graphic is U wind magnitudes, not anomalies. Major, major signal for both WPac activity and a strengthening El Nino.

[euro6208]

The monsoon trough extends 170 E to as far as 165 W

Then there's a wave south east of Guam

Actually it's bigger than that. It extends from 140E all the way to 155W.



It already has several disturbances that models develop down the road.

[euro6208]

Looks like we have another threat down the road and this came out of nowhere. It's located southeast of Guam and EURO keeps this weak for the next 144 hours, makes landfall over Luzon, and strengthens it to Mujigae, Choi-wan, or Koppu in 168 hours.

It makes landfall over Hainan as a typhoon and literally stalls it over the Gulf of Tonkin...

12Z EURO still latching onto this feature located south of Guam. It keeps it weak all the way to Luzon and Hainan and at very long range, 240 hours, starts to develop this steadily in the Gulf of Tonkin.

[euro6208]

Posted by Abraham Levy on Twitter, that westerly wind burst will be coming on strong. Keep in mind this graphic is U wind magnitudes, not anomalies. Major, major signal for both WPac activity and a strengthening El Nino.

Guaranteed this major WWB will spark continuous cyclone activity near the dateline. It's going to be interesting just how many develops and how strong these get.

Scary to think because the Marianas has a 300% chance of getting hit from a major typhoon during major ninos.

Paka, Dec 97 Guam
Pongsona, Dec 02 Guam
Soudelor Jul 15 Saipan

[euro6208]

INVEST 99W is up

Models sensing something down the road.