"14.12" Reported in Virginia!!!!

[DCmetroraleigh]

Augusta County, VA, according to NWS. Massive flooding reported. Tragedy in process, I assume.

[montrealboy]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
VAC003-015-091-125-540-790-820-190400-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT...CORRECTED RAINFALL TOTAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
937 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2003

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR NELSON...CITY OF
CHARLOTTESVILLE...CITY OF WAYNESBORO...CITY OF STAUNTON...
ALBEMARLE...AUGUSTA AND HIGHLAND COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT...

AT 937 PM EDT...RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW AN AREA OF TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL OVER THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISABEL.

RADAR INDICATES THAT WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6 INCH OF RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE
ALREADY OCCURRED. AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGE REPORTS INDICATE THAT IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR SHERANDO...IN AUGUSTA COUNTY...RAINFALL OF
ALMOST 14.12 INCHES HAS ALREADY FALLEN. EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED
IN SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO THE EXTREMELY HIGH RAINFALL IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT...AND POSSIBLY DEADLY FLASH
FLOODING.

THE TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
HOURS...AND RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS ACTIVITY HAVE BEEN IN THE
VICINITY OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THROUGH MIDNIGHT AN ADDITIONAL 2
TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAIN
INCLUDE CHARLOTTESVILLE...CRIMORA...CROZET...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...
FREE UNION...SHERANDO...AFTON...MONTEBELLO...SCHUYLER...SHIPMAN AND
WINTERGREEN.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT
QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY
IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS
IMMINENT. MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO CROSS BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS
THE ROADWAY. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL
ONE...ON FOOT.

$$
MANNING/SFP

[Heady Guy]

Wind driven rain...could have been higher..My thoughts are for the people

[Josephine96]

I pray for all those who recieved the rain and I also pray for the water to quickly receed..

[Zanzie]

I used to live in C'ville. That area was hit hard by flooding and landslides in hurricane Camille in 1969. My heart is heavy for those lovely people and what they are facing. I can't even imagine 14 inches of rain. Devastating.

[montrealboy]

000
FXUS61 KLWX 190228
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1020 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2003

BRIEF UPDATE TO ZONES FOR SOME MINOR WORDING CHANGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. SEVERAL FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

PEAK WINDS SO FAR: DCA...58 MPH/BWI...55 MPH/IAD 45 MPH.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT):
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING/INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING/FLOOD
WATCH REMAIN UNCHANGED...

THE AFFECTS OF HURRICANE ISABEL ARE ALREADY BEGINNING...WITH A RAPID
DETERIORATION EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A BIG
KEY ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HOW THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WAS OFF THE EAST COAST
LAST EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT AS OF THIS MORNING...THE FRONT IS
BEING PUSHED ONSHORE BY THE WARM ADVECTION OF ISABEL. IF THIS FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE...THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR LONGER TERM
TORRENTIAL RAINS WEST OF THE METRO AREA.

RECENT TREND ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COOLING OF CLOUD TOPS
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE EYE. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AND
UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED BY THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.

VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KLWX RADAR AND REGIONAL PROFILERS ARE SHOWING
WINDS HAVE BACKED AND ARE INCREASING FROM 30 TO 50KTS AT 2-3KFT
SINCE NOON.

TORNADO POTENTIAL IS THE OTHER PROBLEM OF THE DAY. WITH THE INFLUX
OF HIGHER THETA-E FROM THE SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH THE AMOUNT OF
SHEAR IN THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH ESPECIALLY AS
OUTER BANDS MOVE INLAND. A TORNADO WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN POSTED
SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

NOTE: THE KLWX WSR-88D IS CURRENTLY USING THE TROPICAL Z/R RELATION
AND HAS BEEN SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...AS OF 17Z HAVE
MODIFIED SEVERAL OF THE HYDROMET AND MESO ALGORITHM ADAPTABLE
PARAMETERS PER WSR-88D TROPICAL OPS PLAN...EXCEPT MODIFIED THE TVS
VALUES USING LOCALLY-DEVELOPED VALUES TO BETTER CAPTURE SMALL
CIRCULATIONS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER FOR CURRENT TRACK
INFORMATION FOR ISABEL...AND THE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
(WBCHLSLWX)...FOR A LOCAL PERSPECTIVE.

HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV
HTTP://WEATHER.NOAA.GOV/LWX

PLAN FOR EARLY RELEASE OF ZONES BY 2:30 PM.

ROGOWSKI

[Scott_inVA]

Augusta County, VA, according to NWS. Massive flooding reported. Tragedy in process, I assume.

WREL is in Rockbridge county...the County directly below Augusta.
IMO, there is a malfunction on that gage. This is an automated river station now indicating the river is at 45.9' which is not correct.

While the County is experiencing flash flooding and some river flooding, Sterling should have deployed ground truth before just taking an IFLOWS obs.

The gage (at 11:30PM) reporting 18.09" in 24 hours, yet all other County gages are between 2.5" and 7". THE 6-7" RECORDS ARE CORRECT and moderate to major flooding is now occuring in this area.

We currently are experiencing fairly widespread flash flooding in this area. Several mudslides from the Blue Ridge Parkway down the mountain ATTM. Creeks running down the Blue Ridge are rapidly rising.

Winds currently 20-30MPH, gusting to 38MPH.

Getting nasty here.

Scott
WREL Radio
Lexington, VA

[abajan]

I can't even imagine 14 inches of rain. Devastating.

Try 96 inches over a 4 day period on for size. That's the amount of rain dumped on a place called Silver Hill on the island of Jamaica. (Sorry, I don't remember the year but think it was in the 1960's.)

However, regarding the present situation in Virginia, I hope there was no loss of life.

P.S. It was actually over 96 inches of rain that fell in Silver Hill but no one knows how much because the rain guage kept overflowing.

[HeatherAKC]

My grandmother lives in Charlottesville and we spoke to her yesterday in the evening. She reported the electricity was out and there was no flooding. Looks like we'll need to speak to her again this AM. Her basement floods and for an 86 year old woman living alone, it's quite a crisis. AND her flood pump doesn't work when the electricity is out.

[HuffWx]

I noted the stronger radar reflections all day yesterday up that way. Here an hour south we managed over 3 inches. My neighbors rain gauge was a bit off...so my first guess of 5 inches was wrong.

Huff

[beenthru6]

We had our family reunion this year at Sherando lake, and it is a gorgeous park. I hope it survives this flood intact. We also just bought property about two hours south of there this year along the Blue Ridge Parkway. We have a little trailer on the property and the beginning of the Dan River runs along the bottom of our 2.5 acres. I have no idea if we have sustained any damage there or not, as we won't be able to get up that way for another month. I hope that area was far enough south and west to have avoided the flooding, but I sure feel bad for those who were caught in it.