ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[WPBWeather]

From JB and RM tweets:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 30m30 minutes ago State College, PA
From Dr @RyanMaue along with Pacific SST,hugely different in Atlantic than 97 Much colder N Atlantic,warmer central

[Ntxw]

Latest WWB is progressing eastward with westerly anomalies. We're going to see more warming coming, 3C has expanded even further westward lately.





SSH is also rising towards Nino 3 and 1+2 that was centered on 3.4 a few weeks ago. Jason-2 satellite images will be stunning in about a month or so with the bright whites covering the eastern equatorial Pacific into the South American Coast.




This image leads me to believe that the far eastern regions are yet about to see the greatest impacts of the OKW

[cycloneye]

Latest PDO is at +1.56 and that is down from +1.84 that was in july.

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[Hurricaneman]

Looks as if there might end up before the El Nino starts to drop a rise of about another .1 to .3

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[xironman]

From JB and RM tweets:
From Dr @RyanMaue along with Pacific SST,hugely different in Atlantic than 97 Much colder N Atlantic,warmer central

That section of the North Atlantic is well known as the "cold spot". Not a surprise.

[Ntxw]

This does not bode well for Australia as the strengthening +IOD will likely mean drought in the coming months. At the same time it is reflective of the current El Nino episode intensifying.

[Ntxw]

Latest image from Jason-2 of SSH as expected, the whites are shifting towards the coast of SA. KW is definitely being felt. The link shows over the last 30 days the progress eastward.



http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/latestdata/

[salescall]

I was under the assumption that El Nino would bring increased rains to the SE United States. I know that NC, SC, and GA (and maybe others) are under drought conditions. Is there something different about this El Nino that could be causing this, or is it too early in the event to see wetter conditions for the SE United States?

Thanks!

[Ntxw]

It depends on the Nino type sometimes the weaker modoki events favors the southeast while traditional events favor the southwest and Florida. Summer isn't really the full extent effects of the El Nino other things are at play as well such as the Atlantic hurricane season which contributes to a large amount of rainfall in the southeast...as a quiet season would mean less.

[ronjon]

I was under the assumption that El Nino would bring increased rains to the SE United States. I know that NC, SC, and GA (and maybe others) are under drought conditions. Is there something different about this El Nino that could be causing this, or is it too early in the event to see wetter conditions for the SE United States?

Thanks!

El Nino are November to March events regarding seasonal rainfall changes in the US.

[salescall]

Thanks for the quick replies. I knew in the back of my mind that it had more of an effect in the colder months. I just couldn't find anything to back up those thoughts.

[Dean_175]

Thanks for the quick replies. I knew in the back of my mind that it had more of an effect in the colder months. I just couldn't find anything to back up those thoughts.

Its because the weather in the cold season is influenced more by the pattern of upper level winds (vs the summer). Since El Nino can alter the average upper level wind pattern- its in the cold months that most of the impact is felt in the south.

[Iknownothing]

Latest image from Jason-2 of SSH as expected, the whites are shifting towards the coast of SA. KW is definitely being felt. The link shows over the last 30 days the progress eastward.



http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/latestdata/

That warm band stretching off the coast of Central America is very eye catching on the Jason2. Almost like a "Mini El Nino."

Any ideas one what this warm band of water might have on the effects of El Nino (if any) for the SW US? Or is it likely to shrink before our Winter gets going?

[Ntxw]

The EPAC has been warm for some time. Must be result of PDO?

This WWB means business, it's pushing raw westerly winds well near 120W! Similar to the event in July. The other big ones like this so far has taken the El Nino to a new level. No reason to believe this WWB won't as it is progressing eastward just fine. This pretty much locks the event to strengthen throughout October into November and hold well through the rest of the year.

[Kingarabian]

I'm reading on Weatherunderground that Easterlies will be back by October?

[Ntxw]

I'm reading on Weatherunderground that Easterlies will be back by October?

http://dreamspace.is/ExImgs/WWB_R.png

I don't see anything from the CFSv2, I'm not sure what guidance they are looking at. It looks pretty status quo with westerly anomalies along and east of the dateline. Easterlies in the far west Pacific which will only reinforce colder values in Indonesia which helps the Nino. Did they mention what source they were seeing?

[Kingarabian]

I'm reading on Weatherunderground that Easterlies will be back by October?

http://dreamspace.is/ExImgs/WWB_R.png

I don't see anything from the CFSv2, I'm not sure what guidance they are looking at. It looks pretty status quo with westerly anomalies along and east of the dateline. Easterlies in the far west Pacific which will only reinforce colder values in Indonesia which helps the Nino. Did they mention what source they were seeing?

They retweeted Michael Ventrice's tweet. Not sure how to link to Twitter posts on here properly so here is the screenshot.

Ventrice's tweet was in response to Abraham Levy's post about the WWB's being back in the EPAC.

[Ntxw]

But that graphic shows the winds switching from easterly (weakened state) in September towards October to westerly (rare occurance any time of year) east of the dateline. I'm not sure how they got more easterlies into October from that which shows the exact opposite.

Westerlies are areas of yellows, oranges, and reds. When they happen east of 180 (dateline) that's warming the Nino. The normal (neutral ENSO) winds are the darker blues (easterlies).

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: But that graphic shows the winds switching from easterly (weakened state) in September towards October to westerly (rare occurance any time of year) east of the dateline. I'm not sure how they got more easterlies into October from that.

I guess they don't know how to read the graph properly and assumed that dominating blues mean a switch to Easterlies. Thanks for clarifying.

They quoted this person:
https://twitter.com/Weather_West?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: But that graphic shows the winds switching from easterly (weakened state) in September towards October to westerly (rare occurance any time of year) east of the dateline. I'm not sure how they got more easterlies into October from that.

I guess they don't know how to read the graph properly and assumed that dominating blues mean a switch to Easterlies. Thanks for clarifying.

They quoted this person:
https://twitter.com/Weather_West?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

Ahh I just read, they are actually saying it's true switch to westerlies, reversal of the easterly trade winds to westerly . Mike Ventrice was pointing out it wasn't just anomalous weakened easterlies but true switch to westerly in the total winds

The message is, another big WWB has just happened and the winds in Nino 3.4, 3, and 1+2 is about to switch westerly and warming the Nino in time for peak climo Oct-Nov-Dec. It will be interesting if this can keep pace with 1997