Mid-Upper Low NE of Hispanola (Is Invest 98L)

[northjaxpro]

I rarely post a new topic on mid-upper level Low Pressure features, but the large one north of the Leeward Islands have me a bit curious early this morning. There has been a significant increase and burst of convection now showing on satellite imagery. I am beginning to wonder is this feature trying to burrow its way to the surface? If this trend with the convection continues and if shear slackens just a bit, who knows?

[tropicwatch]

I noticed that this morning too.

[boca]

Which way is it moving very hard to tell?

[cycloneye]

Is forecast to begin to move slowly northward.

Excerpt from the San Juan NWS.

UPPER TROUGH IS STILL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BUT IT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH BY FRIDAY.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Isnt it true that when an upper low starts firing convection like this one it releases heat into the upper atmosphere which weakens the upper low and allows transition to warm core if the convection continues to fire?

[AJC3]

Isnt it true that when an upper low starts firing convection like this one it releases heat into the upper atmosphere which weakens the upper low and allows transition to warm core if the convection continues to fire?

Yes, but the warming aloft is, more times than not, a self-destructive process since the convection is usually more a function of the colder air aloft associated with the upper low, rather than anything that exists at the surface. Unless there is enough convection/latent heat release aloft to induce sufficient surface pressure falls, which can (in turn) form at least some semblance of a weak surface low, than these systems will generally (1) weaken/fall apart of their own doing, or (2) retain their weak status quo until eventually some other mid/upper level system comes along and begins to induce deformation upon it.

This is why these cold core upper systems, more times than not, *don't* turn into warm core systems.

[floridasun78]

Isnt it true that when an upper low starts firing convection like this one it releases heat into the upper atmosphere which weakens the upper low and allows transition to warm core if the convection continues to fire?

Yes, but the warming aloft is, more times than not, a self-destructive process since the convection is usually more a function of the colder air aloft associated with the upper low, rather than anything that exists at the surface. Unless there is enough convection/latent heat release aloft to induce sufficient surface pressure falls, which can (in turn) form at least some semblance of a weak surface low, than these systems will generally (1) weaken/fall apart of their own doing, or (2) retain their weak status quo until eventually some other mid/upper level system comes along and begins to induce deformation upon it.

This is why these cold core upper systems, more times than not, *don't* turn into warm core systems.

i only seen one or two turn into TS put very unlikely what seen past

[cycloneye]

Is Invest 98L