Posible GOM development?

[Dean4Storms]

Im not buying it ndg. Im not saying anything significant will develop but I am saying I don't believe models this year. Further, I have seen many high end ts's in the GOM with shear in place. Im in a wait and see mode.

Like I said, the facts this year have been that the upper level environment turns out as bad if not worst than forecasted by the models in our part of the Atlantic since late July. If it would had been the other way around you would have had a point.
Yes, I have seen high end TS in the GOM but with only 20-30 knot UL winds not 40-60 knot winds as forecasted as the vorticity approaches the central and northern GOM. Another bad condition will be mid level shear which has been probably even more damaging as we saw with 94L a few days ago in the SW GOM.

All true, but there is a chance although small that it is able to become tropical. Something else to consider is that the shear should become more SW or Southerly over the central Gulf with the surface reflection also moving northward. However high that forward motion can become to reduce the effect of the shear by maybe 10 kts or so could come into play. Going to be interesting to watch!

[Dean4Storms]

18z GFS just a tad stronger with the 10m wind gusts reaching now to 44kts. south of Destin @ 66 hours.

[rickybobby]

Wesh 2 did a model run and it has the low going into the panhandle. It has a very low chance of becoming a ts.

[Steve]

Radar derived product on WWL Channel 4 shows an advance system really stretched out but spinning right into the Central Texas Coast. Gotta be something associated with the front backing North in the Gulf. I'm not buying it just reporting it. It's similar to what the Nam (not hi-Res) 18z does. Just looks like rain and a spin coming in about 100 miles down the coast from Galveston.

[Ntxw]

Radar derived product on WWL Channel 4 shows an advance system really stretched out but spinning right into the Central Texas Coast. Gotta be something associated with the front backing North in the Gulf. I'm not buying it just reporting it.

There are two areas in the atmosphere that will play feature. One will be the ULL spinning near the Texas coast. This is what the western stuff is and the cause of all the shear. The other area is stuff coming from the Yucatan into the NGOM/EGOM in a moisture train. You'll have various vortexes try to spin up around that area.

[caneman]

Ndg, fact is we have.to wait and see how it plays out. As others have said, if it stays in the e.GOM and depending on forward motion shear may not be that destructive.

[Steve]

Yeah, that's kind of what I was thinking. Looks like the GFS and maybe moreso the Euro consolidates one of the last vortices just off Walton or Bay County. That's considerably East from yesterday, so I'm guessing whatever steering influence (probably associated with the upper trough and General SWly flow) was pulling it north either brings it north farther East or else it has an easterly component in the Gulf. Again, I don't know how it plays out, and it's not likely anything more than a windy and rainy day on portions of the Panhandle, but it's the only thing going on close to home and the only thing worth watching in a while.

[Ntxw]

Ndg, fact is we have.to wait and see how it plays out. As others have said, if it stays in the e.GOM and depending on forward motion shear may not be that destructive.

A well developed system (for example if you had a hurricane crossing Yucatan) could then likely have a better shot riding the shear. A monsoonal/trof gyre with no defined center often struggles to stack up and is almost always slow to develop if at all due to the shear.

[cycloneye]

A trough of low pressure located over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize
and Guatemala is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. While a weak surface low will probably form once the
disturbance reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico in a couple of days,
environmental conditions are not particularly favorable for
significant development early next week while the system moves
northward over the Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[caneman]

Ndg, fact is we have.to wait and see how it plays out. As others have said, if it stays in the e.GOM and depending on forward motion shear may not be that destructive.

A well developed system (for example if you had a hurricane crossing Yucatan) could then likely have a better shot riding the shear. A monsoonal/trof gyre with no defined center often struggles to stack up and is almost always slow to develop if at all due to the shear.

ntwx, while I repsect what you are saying, ive lived on the west coast of Florida for a long time and have seen many systems develop or hold their own in the face of shear when moving in tandem. So, ill go with the wait and see approach. We've had many impacts from such type set ups here.

[NDG]

I respect your "wait and see" attitude with the disturbance but we are within 96 hrs of whatever forms in the GOM moving inland into the northern gulf coast. Models if anything have ended up too aggressive this season, most times, since late July. There's no reason to loose sleep over the potential of something significant developing because the facts are against it. The NHC is only giving it a 20% so I am not the only one

[gatorcane]

Looks like a lot of shear over the GOM and only looks to get worse as the low enters the Gulf. I can see a sloppy system but nothing strong. Probably no named system out of this.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[NDG]

http://i58.tinypic.com/inxqxg.jpg
That's alot to happen in 72hrs.

So that's winds at h85 which means if the low pressure is not tropical the winds will be lower than that at the surface, the highest forecasted winds that I can find at the surface is in the 25-30 knots.

[HeeBGBz]

Does anyone have the link to the site that shows the wind movement all over the planet? With all the constantly moving wavy lines and real time wind currents? I had it, but I lost it.

[Extratropical94]

Does anyone have the link to the site that shows the wind movement all over the planet? With all the constantly moving wavy lines and real time wind currents? I had it, but I lost it.

http://earth.nullschool.net
Do you mean this site?

[HeeBGBz]

Yes, that's it. Thanks! It's a beautiful site. Helpful, too.

[NDG]

0z GFS weakest run so far by it of the low pressure.

[stormlover2013]

Gfs washes it out

[Steve]

Yeah it does. But the event results in 5-10" from just north of Tampa over around to Destin or so. 192 totals: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... Size=M&ps=

[stormlover2013]

We might see models flop towards la more than Florida, might be see a trend here because gfs is more west, Cmc, is more west and the jma has been west but it's hard for models right now until we have a llc formed