Texas Fall-2015

[Ntxw]

Both years murdered my yard, killed some shrubs and trees, and have cracks in the soil you can literally hurt yourself on.

I haven't seen anything quite that bad inside the metroplex proper. In fact driving to and from work there is a lot of green. There are usual dead grass and shrubs as most typical late in the summer but I've seen worse. I would really check your soil for long term damage. After over 20-25 inches of rain it should not be that bad unless there is an underlying problem with growth or longterm topsoil damage.

I mean after 40" of annual rainfall and lowered water restriction if it's still that bad it has to be another issue.

[TheProfessor]

Digging through my weather station data from 2011 for Heath, our first high temperature below 70 was October 18th. First low below 50 was October 20th. On the bright side, we did get 4.14" of rain in October 2011

That period then began what was to be the 6th wettest (consequently a very warm one) winter

I got Pneumonia because of that winter in my freshmen year of high school How could a warm winter cause Pneumonia you might ask? well here's what happened to me, the warm winter didn't kill a lot of the allergens I'm allergic too in the fall and spring and so my allergies became really bad, then in February I got a sinus infection and took some Antibiotics, the antibiotics didn't work so all of the infection went into my chest and I ended up missing 2 weeks of school because of Pneumonia. Even though 2011 was a very wet winter, it was one of my most disliked winters I've been through so far.

[Brent]

I was in Alabama in the winter of 11-12 and I always have considered it a non-winter.

[dhweather]

A little off topic - but what is the difference in the El Nino events in the early/mid 80's that absolutely drenched California and produced storms that had massive waves doing damage all along the West Coast, and today where that's not really happening. I remember national newscasts talking about these storms and the damage they were doing, and it being the first time I heard the term El Nino.

[Ntxw]

That's a good question many at the CPC who track El Nino are trying to find out. Every El Nino and La Nina is different, the wet season of California will begin in about two months and that's when big cut off lows comes into the Baja/SoCal and those images you saw of the 80s/90s happened. We'll have to see if that happens during this event but really no one knows for sure.

Here is an excerpt from an article about it of the 1997 event which had profound effects in the west.

...A few weeks later, storms started hitting Southern California. Then in December, the skies opened up in Orange County in what meteorologists described as the biggest rainstorm in a century. More than seven inches fell in parts of south Orange County in one day. Mobile home parks in Huntington Beach flooded, forcing rescuers to use inflatable boats and a catamaran to rescue residents. Mudslides destroyed hillside homes. Neighborhoods flooded. Major roads were made impassable by debris.

...And that was just the beginning. Over the next few months, a series of powerful storms caused havoc, washing away roads and railroad tracks, overflowing flood control channels, causing 17 deaths and more than half a billion dollars in damage in California. The toll was far worse in Mexico, where Tijuana and other cities faced crippling flooding.

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-huge-el-nino-could-devastate-southern-california-20150813-story.html

[wxman57]

A little off topic - but what is the difference in the El Nino events in the early/mid 80's that absolutely drenched California and produced storms that had massive waves doing damage all along the West Coast, and today where that's not really happening. I remember national newscasts talking about these storms and the damage they were doing, and it being the first time I heard the term El Nino.

El Nino effects are mostly felt during the winter months. Late fall through early spring are the months where storms would typically impact California. Not so much during the summer or early fall. Wait for it...

[dhweather]

Having watched that Arkansas weather blog link, interview with Joe Bastardi, I really hope he's right about South Texas getting snow this year, because if ONE person deserves it this year, it is our man Portastorm.

[dhweather]

A little off topic - but what is the difference in the El Nino events in the early/mid 80's that absolutely drenched California and produced storms that had massive waves doing damage all along the West Coast, and today where that's not really happening. I remember national newscasts talking about these storms and the damage they were doing, and it being the first time I heard the term El Nino.

El Nino effects are mostly felt during the winter months. Late fall through early spring are the months where storms would typically impact California. Not so much during the summer or early fall. Wait for it...

I get that - I just mean in general terms, say since 2000, any El Nino events have not had severe impacts on California like in the early 80's - I suspect NTXW is right, there's some really smart people trying to figure that out right now.

[TheProfessor]

Fairbanks Alaska has seen 7 inches of snow since 2PM there time today!

[Ntxw]

It's been very cold up in Alaska for sure! The same reason we get warm makes them cold, vice versa. When and IF the EPO flips negative at least we know there will be plenty of snow cover and cold air up there to migrate down. 2011-2012 was a putrid winter for us but for them it was one of those Great Alaskan winters where fuel ran out and towns like Nome were stranded. One of the towns reported -79F that winter with highs in the -50s!

[Brent]

I love the LR GFS sometimes...

18z:

Friday October 9th at DFW, rain and 60s for highs.

It has the first cold front around the 6th.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

I saw my first flock of geese this fall in Richardson. That's gotta mean SOMETHING.

[TarrantWx]

Both the Euro and GFS have a 1040mb High over western Canada next weekend. Granted it's pretty far out but a sign of things to come? I sure hope so...

[Ntxw]

Both the Euro and GFS have a 1040mb High over western Canada next weekend. Granted it's pretty far out but a sign of things to come? I sure hope so...

There is ensemble support for ridging into Alaska. Still a 10 day deal so we know the drill. But it's encouraging, they all show cyclogenesis lee side of the Rockies into the central and northern plains which would usher in a significant front.



That Alaskan ridge, if real, would kick the western trough out into the central conus

[Brent]

I saw my first flock of geese this fall in Richardson. That's gotta mean SOMETHING.

I also noted tonight about sunset there were birds lined up perfectly on southern edges of the roof of my work. Thought that was curious.

[weatherdude1108]

Were they Grackels?

[Brent]

:uarrow:
Were they Grackels?

Yep...

[Ntxw]

I like these maps...I like it a lot







maybe we can end those 90s for good until next year

[Brent]

Behold:

Highs



Lows:

[Ntxw]

Very encouraged with the guidance still on ridging over NW NA. Fairly confident first weekish of October will bring cold air down!

500mb flow like that this time of year is what you want to see, more important than surface depictions because as you get closer the models will zone in if upper flow supports it