Texas Fall-2015

[gpsnowman]

Very encouraged with the guidance still on ridging over NW NA. Fairly confident first weekish of October will bring cold air down!

500mb flow like that this time of year is what you want to see, more important than surface depictions because as you get closer the models will zone in if upper flow supports it

Yes, this is such good news. We have waited long enough. The previous maps are a beautiful thing to admire.

[Ntxw]

If only this was winter . It would mean an arctic outbreak



In general the models looks like a pretty wet October, and the OP runs (not so much the euro yet) having been good news in that department

[TarrantWx]

Does anyone use this site to monitor the EPO? Just wondering how accurate it is. Judging from those maps it's pretty obvious it's going negative but this helps reinforce that.

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/re ... 4panel.png

[aggiecutter]

I like these maps...I like it a lot







maybe we can end those 90s for good until next year

This is what the EURO operational was showing a couple days ago.

[Ntxw]

It did, the euro was the first to show it

[Brent]

6z has over 4" of rain for DFW...

Most of it is at 300+ hours out...

but certainly the cold front and end of 90s signal is getting stronger and more likely.

[Brent]

Highs next Sunday anyone? Where is wxman57 with his fancy meteogram?

Monday and Tuesday look very similar.

[aggiecutter]

Game-set-match-it begins. This is money in the bank:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 3h3 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
MAJOR SOI CRASH in progress, like cattle prod to the atmosphere. Much colder Oct against averages likely in works compared to Sept

[gpsnowman]

Well, well. This is turning out to be a glorious Saturday. The future looks good!!! This darn pattern is going to crack sooner rather than later and it finally looks like the potential is coming. Getting a little excited but I don't want to count my money while sitting at the table.

[Ntxw]

12Z Euro flattens the ridge up there, thus very little if any front into Texas

[Tireman4]

12Z Euro flattens the ridge up there, thus very little if any front into Texas

Could this be flip flopping..
Like in Winter months?

[Brent]

18z GFS... first front isn't quite as strong but is still a front but there's a much stronger front a few days later. The end is in sight guys.

[Brent]

Only 8 days out guys! Front actually comes through most areas a week from today

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The EPO really wants to poke a high pressure up there in alaska. Hopefully this look continues into the winter. This year will be very interesting, so many different features want to dominate the winter. Which one will play out is the question.

[JDawg512]

What is everyone's take on this low along the upper Texas coast? I've seen one or two models that want to move it west just far enough to give the 35 corridor some rain this evening and tonight however, I think chances of this happening are rather low.

[Brent]

Times are changing:

It appears on the 12z after the big cold front next weekend an EPAC storm recurves around 200 hrs

[weatherdude1108]

What is everyone's take on this low along the upper Texas coast? I've seen one or two models that want to move it west just far enough to give the 35 corridor some rain this evening and tonight however, I think chances of this happening are rather low.

I notice the clouds seem a little more ominous today than yesterday. Also more hazy high clouds. I am always hoping water will come from them.

[Ptarmigan]

Times are changing:

It appears on the 12z after the big cold front next weekend an EPAC storm recurves around 200 hrs

Sometimes EPAC storms over Texas can lead to floods like in 1981, 1994, and 1998. They all occurred in October.

[Ptarmigan]

I prefer the 12Z GFS - no cold fronts through Texas until beyond Oct. 10.

Interesting that the 12Z EC meteogram for DFW on WeatherBell has no cold front through day 10. Lows in the 70s and highs near 90 through 240hrs.

It is Fall. Summer is over.

[JDawg512]

This afternoons EWX discussion is just depressing. Here comes the high again... (singing in place of here comes the rain again by the Eurythmics) lol