ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Weatherwatcher98]

Looks to have found that sweet spot

[Hammy]

Both this and 99L are missing (and have been from the start) from NRL for some reason, not even on their archival/index page--is there anywhere else to check the microwave passes in decent resolution?

[emeraldislenc]

This is looking more organized!

[LarryWx]

The LLC is near 27N, 69W moving WNW. The model consensus has it continuing slowly WNW til it reaches near 74W. At that point, the consensus turns it pretty quickly to a N heading with a chance to get into the NE US after likely staying offshore the NC Outer Banks as of now.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Both this and 99L are missing (and have been from the start) from NRL for some reason, not even on their archival/index page--is there anywhere else to check the microwave passes in decent resolution?

NRL?

[Hammy]

Both this and 99L are missing (and have been from the start) from NRL for some reason, not even on their archival/index page--is there anywhere else to check the microwave passes in decent resolution?

NRL?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html
Have yet to show up here and they aren't in the index page either.

[Weatherwatcher98]

I meant NRL is down? lol sorry

[Hammy]

I meant NRL is down? lol sorry

It's up, but for some reason the two Atlantic invests are entirely missing from everywhere on the site.

[Weatherwatcher98]

and on other sites. Maybe they are watching football lol

[seahawkjd]

Is this going to help push more moisture into Eastern NC? We're already underwater as it is. 7 inches on Friday and a few more since.

[ozonepete]

So Hammy, are you still so negative on this developing?

Meanwhile, I see what has been hindering it - the ULL that basically spawned this system has survived and is located on the southwest side of this system. Thus it has been pulling down dry air from the north and causing some subsidence on the western side of 98L and that has hindered overall development. Today these affects are limited to the southwestern side as the ULL has been moving west-southwestward. As it moves further away from 98L these deleterious effects should stop and allow the low to intensify. If 98L continues to move little or very slowly it has a good chance to get pretty strong before encountering any more shear. Look at the wide water vapor loop and you can see what I'm saying.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Too early to say!!

[Hammy]

So Hammy, are you still so negative on this developing?

Meanwhile, I see what has been hindering it - the ULL that basically spawned this system has survived and is located on the southwest side of this system. Thus it has been pulling down dry air from the north and causing some subsidence on the western side of 98L and that has hindered overall development. Today these affects are limited to the southwestern side as the ULL has been moving west-southwestward. As it moves further away from 98L these deleterious effects should stop and allow the low to intensify. If 98L continues to move little or very slowly it has a good chance to get pretty strong before encountering any more shear. Look at the wide water vapor loop and you can see what I'm saying.

I'll take the middle road between both of our earlier assessments and say this probably becomes (and stays at) a TD tonight. I think it's extremely likely though that it begins encountering shear within the next 12 hours, rather than a day or two. The shear forecasts have been horrid this year.

[ozonepete]

I'll take the middle road between both of our earlier assessments and say this probably becomes (and stays at) a TD tonight. I think it's extremely likely though that it begins encountering shear within the next 12 hours, rather than a day or two. The shear forecasts have been horrid this year.

Shear forecasts have been horrid every year for all of the years they've been around, lol. And I mean both ways: forecasts of no shear often turn out to be killing shear and forecasts of killing shear often turn out to be no shear at all.

[Hammy]

Last few visible RGB frames show that whatever LLC there is starting to become exposed to the west which tells me the shear is already on the increase. Unless it's upgraded tonight I doubt it will be.

[Alyono]

this is probably a depression right now

[hurricanedude]

HAMMY standing ground to the professional MET....LOVE IT!! Though I agree this is likely going to be a named stormed and possibly a strong one and is at least a threat from NC north

[CrazyC83]

HAMMY standing ground to the professional MET....LOVE IT!! Though I agree this is likely going to be a named stormed and possibly a strong one and is at least a threat from NC north

How strong in your opinion?

[hurricanedude]

strong TS....could get to min cane status......IMO

[Hammy]

HAMMY standing ground to the professional MET....LOVE IT!! Though I agree this is likely going to be a named stormed and possibly a strong one and is at least a threat from NC north

I've been wrong before but don't forget I was called out on here for going against the models with Erika but still ended up getting it right

I just don't see this strengthening with so much shear just to the north given that it looks like it's getting closer.