ozonepete wrote:It is sitting in a very small area of light shear but, if the CIMSS analysis is correct, it is surrounded by increasing shear on all quadrants. Can't see how it can survive now unless it drifts southward or southeastward. BUT, it sure is a tropical depression right now. If half of this season's depressions are any example, then this surely is one right now.
I was thinking similarly. As long as this doesn't start drifting south with the 500 mb and higher level winds, there shouldn't be much to worry about. If it were to somehow do that (I have seen ZERO model runs to that), it would become an entirely different ballgame in terms of its future. It moving south would be quite odd, however, being that it is weak, meaning lower steering levels which don't have northerly winds to push it southward. The satellite animation shows a lot of high clouds being blown to the south all around this and to the west toward FL. One might think the LLC may also do that but not if one would assume that 98L's mean steering level is too low to move with those higher level northerly winds. Instead, that should act as northerly shear and not northerly steering. The overwhelming model consensus has it moving slowly WNW.
This was near 27N, 69W a few hours ago. Let's see where is the next position to get an idea of its movement.