ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

[NDG]

So what's wrong with showing evidence, if you two want me to stop I would be more than glad to stop posting at this site.

[Ntxw]

Lets just call it a shear victim

Swirl or no swirl it is still just a slug of mess with little chance to develop in the face of shear. Its doing pretty much what most expected and rain is the main threat. Won't be around too much longer...

[ronjon]

Looks to me that the low pressure center is around 25N-86.5W - tucking itself just underneath the western edge of the convection.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/imagery/swir_lalo-animated.gif

[Weatherwatcher98]

Looks to me that the low pressure center is around 25N-86.5W - tucking itself just underneath the western edge of the convection.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/imagery/swir_lalo-animated.gif

I have been saying that since yesterday. Glad I am not seeing things

[caneman]

Looks to me that the low pressure center is around 25N-86.5W - tucking itself just underneath the western edge of the convection.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/imagery/swir_lalo-animated.gif

it does appear to be doing that to me as well. May be too little too late but worth watching. Certainly lots of rain.

[LarryWx]

Looks to me that the low pressure center is around 25N-86.5W - tucking itself just underneath the western edge of the convection.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/imagery/swir_lalo-animated.gif

Ronjon,
Is there by chance some kind of center near 24N, 87.2W as per that loop? It looks like there is some low level spin centered near there.

[NDG]

Good call ronjon. The circulation is still weak & elongated because bouy NNE of the fixed coc has been reporting SSE winds during the past several hours.

At 1200 UTC, 28 September 2015, LOW INVEST (AL99) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 24.6°N and 86.7°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 10 kt at a bearing of 25 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks to me that the low pressure center is around 25N-86.5W - tucking itself just underneath the western edge of the convection.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/imagery/swir_lalo-animated.gif

You mean that eddy?

[Dean4Storms]

Looks to me that the low pressure center is around 25N-86.5W - tucking itself just underneath the western edge of the convection.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/imagery/swir_lalo-animated.gif

Ronjon,
Is there by chance some kind of center near 24N, 87.2W as per that loop? It looks like there is some low level spin centered near there.

Yes, that is the Low Level Circulation Caneman and I have been watching and posting about. It appears to be the Low center and is nearly under the convection!

[ronjon]

Can kind of see the low pressure wind field on this SAT view just on the western edge of the convection about 200 mi west of Key West - speed it way up.

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=TPA&isingle=multiple&itype=vis

[caneman]

Looks to me that the low pressure center is around 25N-86.5W - tucking itself just underneath the western edge of the convection.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/imagery/swir_lalo-animated.gif

I stated this last night as well. Was shocked that nhc.bumped down chances. I still say 50 50 chance but not a lot of time left

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[tolakram]

Disclaimer reminder, when you make a prediction the disclaimer IS required, no exceptions. You may put the disclaimer in your signature if desired.

[caneman]

It looks to me like the ull has lost some umph and is more north south which may make any influence on our llc more aiding than destructive as the llc moves more north. Oops not real sure how to do the disclaimer so. Don't listen to me as im,probably not right. nhc is the expert

[NDG]

Still no support for development from models.

[ronjon]

I could see this being named a tropical depression by NHC if the convection wraps around the center and buoy wind/pressure reports support it.

[caneman]

Saw a ships report earlier that said 30 kts. I know they're not overly accurate but if convection fires over the llc a td or min t.s. wouldn't be out of the question in my totally amateur opinion

[NDG]

Hopefully the Recon will go out this afternoon and confirm whether it has a defined LLC or not.
Based on , ASCAT, surface reports and visible satellite so far this morning I say that it is still a weak elongated broad "closed" circulation and will not qualify as a tropical cyclone.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Honestly I don't understand what the big deal is as far as correct terminology? It really doesnt matter as its nothing but a weak, strung out, disorganized mess, that is getting pounded and will continue to get pounded by shear. It has no chance of developing and is just going to bring a decent amount of rain to parts of Florida. Nothing more, nothing less.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Actually shear is decreasing in the SE Gulf http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

[ronjon]

It's probably an academic call on classification at this point - since the weather will be the same either way. The system has seemed to find a less hostile spot in the SE GOM at this latitude however.