ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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gatorcane
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#141 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:51 pm

RAMMB has moved it's floater over TD #11:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
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Re:

#142 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:52 pm

gatorcane wrote:I am really looking forward to the NHC discussion at 5pm EST with this SW movement which is completely off the NHC track and also the new model guidance which is significantly westward and much more bullish.

Yeah it should be a very interesting discussion!
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#143 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:52 pm

Since there may not be much left of it by tomorrow, they should've at least kept going SE a bit more to see if this managed to make TS or not.
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#144 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:53 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 281848
AF307 0111A CYCLONE HDOB 28 20150928
183800 2623N 06846W 8270 01734 0099 +156 +149 224020 021 023 000 00
183830 2622N 06845W 8274 01728 0099 +160 +142 217020 021 022 001 00
183900 2620N 06844W 8273 01733 0100 +163 +134 220019 020 026 000 00
183930 2619N 06842W 8275 01731 0099 +164 +136 217021 022 025 000 00
184000 2618N 06841W 8276 01735 0107 +155 +148 216021 022 027 001 00
184030 2617N 06840W 8273 01736 0107 +153 +145 214024 025 028 000 00
184100 2616N 06839W 8270 01736 0105 +155 +139 211023 023 028 002 00
184130 2615N 06837W 8275 01731 0106 +153 +149 209023 024 029 001 01
184200 2614N 06836W 8274 01734 //// +152 //// 208025 025 030 001 01
184230 2612N 06835W 8274 01734 //// +152 //// 208026 028 029 003 01
184300 2611N 06834W 8272 01738 //// +155 //// 206030 031 031 003 05
184330 2611N 06832W 8267 01742 //// +155 //// 199030 031 /// /// 05
184400 2612N 06831W 8273 01735 //// +149 //// 195028 030 029 004 05
184430 2614N 06831W 8274 01735 //// +150 //// 197028 032 031 003 01
184500 2616N 06832W 8269 01740 //// +149 //// 196026 027 032 002 01
184530 2618N 06832W 8274 01734 //// +150 //// 195023 026 033 002 01
184600 2620N 06832W 8273 01734 //// +151 //// 198022 022 033 002 01
184630 2622N 06832W 8275 01733 0104 +155 +149 197022 023 033 002 00
184700 2623N 06832W 8274 01733 0102 +160 +144 197022 023 031 001 00
184730 2625N 06832W 8274 01733 0101 +159 +145 192023 023 032 001 00
$$
;
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#145 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:58 pm

Latest Shear Analysis. :darrow:

Image

Image
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#146 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:59 pm

The HWRF has a 937MB major hurricane hitting New Jersey by hour 117.
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#147 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:00 pm

Don't follow that little vortex, it's rotating around a broader low pressure area. Look for the redevelopment of an LLC near the convection. Follow the movement of the convective complex.
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#148 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:01 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 281857
AF307 0111A CYCLONE HDOB 29 20150928
184800 2627N 06832W 8273 01733 0101 +159 +148 192023 024 032 001 00
184830 2629N 06832W 8273 01733 0102 +156 +143 194023 024 033 000 00
184900 2631N 06832W 8275 01730 0101 +160 +137 192026 027 032 001 00
184930 2633N 06832W 8274 01730 0101 +158 +141 190026 027 032 002 00
185000 2635N 06832W 8273 01731 0100 +158 +142 188025 027 029 002 00
185030 2636N 06833W 8273 01729 0099 +157 +147 185025 025 032 001 00
185100 2638N 06834W 8274 01729 0098 +155 +150 183025 026 033 001 00
185130 2640N 06834W 8272 01730 0098 +155 +152 180024 025 034 001 00
185200 2642N 06835W 8273 01728 0095 +156 +149 177023 024 035 001 00
185230 2643N 06836W 8272 01729 0096 +154 +149 182024 024 033 001 00
185300 2645N 06836W 8274 01725 0095 +155 +150 186022 023 033 001 00
185330 2647N 06837W 8276 01723 0095 +156 +149 184019 022 034 001 03
185400 2649N 06837W 8272 01725 0090 +160 +148 176015 015 032 002 00
185430 2650N 06837W 8274 01725 0093 +160 +147 171018 021 027 001 00
185500 2652N 06837W 8273 01727 0094 +160 +149 165021 022 026 000 00
185530 2654N 06837W 8275 01724 0093 +160 +147 157021 022 027 000 00
185600 2656N 06837W 8271 01728 0092 +160 +147 161022 024 027 000 00
185630 2658N 06837W 8273 01727 0092 +158 +149 162022 023 026 001 00
185700 2700N 06837W 8274 01727 0096 +158 +142 164020 022 026 000 00
185730 2701N 06837W 8274 01725 0094 +156 +144 162020 021 027 000 00
$$
;

Some 35 kt SFMR readings...VERY marginal on whether or not we have Joaquin.
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#149 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:04 pm

VDM at 1003mb.
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Re:

#150 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:08 pm

Hammy wrote:VDM at 1003mb.


That's the southward-moving vortex. It's weakening now.
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#151 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:11 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 281907
AF307 0111A CYCLONE HDOB 30 20150928
185800 2703N 06837W 8272 01728 0093 +158 +154 156021 022 028 000 00
185830 2705N 06837W 8272 01727 0093 +157 +150 155020 021 030 000 00
185900 2707N 06837W 8275 01724 //// +155 //// 156022 023 030 000 01
185930 2709N 06837W 8271 01728 //// +158 //// 173025 026 029 000 01
190000 2711N 06837W 8274 01725 //// +158 //// 170026 028 027 001 01
190030 2712N 06836W 8270 01730 0105 +161 //// 167027 030 030 005 01
190100 2714N 06836W 8274 01723 //// +148 //// 160027 030 033 004 01
190130 2716N 06836W 8273 01725 0089 +155 +150 157027 029 030 000 05
190200 2718N 06836W 8275 01724 0090 +165 +140 154026 027 026 001 00
190230 2720N 06836W 8275 01724 0088 +158 +145 154028 030 026 002 01
190300 2722N 06836W 8275 01724 0095 +154 +150 156031 032 027 001 01
190330 2724N 06836W 8273 01727 0091 +164 +147 155029 030 027 001 00
190400 2726N 06836W 8275 01726 0091 +164 +145 158030 031 026 001 00
190430 2727N 06836W 8272 01730 0093 +162 +148 157031 031 026 000 00
190500 2729N 06836W 8277 01726 0094 +160 +150 157030 031 024 001 00
190530 2731N 06836W 8272 01730 0096 +159 +152 161028 029 027 000 00
190600 2733N 06836W 8272 01732 0098 +159 +153 159028 029 027 000 00
190630 2735N 06836W 8273 01730 0097 +158 +152 158027 028 027 000 00
190700 2737N 06836W 8272 01729 //// +156 //// 158031 033 025 001 01
190730 2739N 06836W 8274 01728 0095 +162 +151 153030 031 027 000 00
$$
;
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Re: Re:

#152 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:12 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Hammy wrote:VDM at 1003mb.


That's the southward-moving vortex. It's weakening now.


Would the primary center be the lighter winds to the east of the vortex?
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Re: Re:

#153 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:13 pm

Hammy wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Hammy wrote:VDM at 1003mb.


That's the southward-moving vortex. It's weakening now.


Would the primary center be the lighter winds to the east of the vortex?


It may be re-forming under the convection. Let's see what the recon finds. Might not be a surface feature yet.
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#154 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:23 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 281917
AF307 0111A CYCLONE HDOB 31 20150928
190800 2741N 06836W 8274 01730 0093 +168 +142 150029 031 027 000 00
190830 2743N 06836W 8269 01734 0093 +167 +142 152029 030 028 001 00
190900 2744N 06836W 8276 01727 0092 +164 +152 154028 028 027 001 00
190930 2746N 06836W 8273 01732 0095 +163 +150 151028 028 027 000 00
191000 2748N 06836W 8273 01730 0095 +163 +144 149029 029 027 000 00
191030 2750N 06836W 8273 01730 0093 +167 +141 150029 030 027 001 00
191100 2752N 06836W 8273 01730 0091 +168 +148 152030 031 025 001 00
191130 2754N 06836W 8265 01741 0102 +160 //// 150034 035 026 005 01
191200 2756N 06836W 8274 01730 //// +156 //// 151034 035 025 001 01
191230 2758N 06835W 8273 01732 0100 +158 +148 150031 034 024 000 00
191300 2759N 06835W 8273 01733 0098 +163 +143 151032 033 025 000 00
191330 2801N 06835W 8274 01733 0098 +166 +141 152032 033 026 000 00
191400 2803N 06835W 8272 01737 0098 +165 +142 151031 033 026 000 00
191430 2805N 06835W 8272 01735 0098 +165 +138 149031 032 024 001 00
191500 2807N 06835W 8273 01735 0098 +168 +143 149030 030 021 000 00
191530 2809N 06835W 8270 01739 //// +152 //// 146032 033 024 003 01
191600 2811N 06835W 8275 01734 //// +153 //// 150030 032 023 000 01
191630 2813N 06835W 8273 01737 //// +160 //// 151030 030 023 000 01
191700 2814N 06835W 8273 01737 0101 +165 +153 149030 031 022 000 00
191730 2816N 06835W 8272 01739 0102 +165 +136 144030 031 023 000 00
$$
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#155 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:23 pm

35kt flight winds and some surface winds on earlier data, enough to upgrade?
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Re: Re:

#156 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:24 pm

ozonepete wrote:
gatorcane wrote:I wonder if the swirl is moving SW because another low-level center is trying to establish under the mid-level center (where the rotation is in the mass of clouds SE of the swirl)?

That's a distinct possibility we have to watch for. And if it does happen the forecast would have to be adjusted again.


Yeah does appear and somewhat anti-poleward reformation may be occurring. Does not happen often but under northerly shear like this it can. it also could be a what keeps this drifting more on a "westerly" drift motion over the next few days till the shear relaxes.
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#157 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:27 pm

Small area on the minobs from recon possibly showing another center ese under the convection. not very defined wind shift but will have to wait and see.
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Re:

#158 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:27 pm

Hammy wrote:35kt flight winds and some surface winds on earlier data, enough to upgrade?


No, nothing to indicate 34kt winds at the surface, yet. Looks like there may be the beginnings of a new LLC forming beneath the MLC, perhaps near 26.5N/68.7W.
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#159 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:29 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 281927
AF307 0111A CYCLONE HDOB 32 20150928
191800 2818N 06835W 8274 01737 0102 +165 +146 142027 028 023 000 00
191830 2820N 06835W 8270 01741 0105 +165 +147 143026 027 025 000 00
191900 2822N 06835W 8275 01738 0105 +162 +151 136026 026 028 000 00
191930 2824N 06835W 8271 01743 0108 +160 +151 137024 026 026 000 00
192000 2825N 06835W 8273 01739 0107 +161 +141 132025 026 024 000 03
192030 2827N 06835W 8273 01739 0105 +163 +148 132027 028 024 000 00
192100 2829N 06835W 8272 01741 0105 +162 +155 134030 031 025 000 00
192130 2831N 06835W 8273 01739 0105 +160 +158 137028 030 024 000 00
192200 2833N 06835W 8274 01741 0107 +163 +149 135028 029 023 001 00
192230 2834N 06835W 8274 01741 0106 +165 +140 134027 028 025 000 00
192300 2836N 06835W 8273 01741 0108 +164 +141 132026 028 026 001 00
192330 2838N 06835W 8275 01739 0109 +165 +143 131026 026 024 000 00
192400 2840N 06835W 8271 01744 0108 +164 +146 131026 026 024 000 00
192430 2842N 06835W 8275 01739 0108 +161 +153 133025 026 024 000 00
192500 2843N 06834W 8272 01744 0109 +161 +147 139024 025 025 000 00
192530 2845N 06834W 8273 01742 0107 +164 +149 137025 025 023 000 00
192600 2847N 06834W 8274 01742 0110 +160 +149 137025 026 022 001 00
192630 2849N 06835W 8271 01744 0110 +160 +149 135024 025 019 001 03
192700 2849N 06837W 8274 01743 0110 +161 +148 138022 023 020 000 03
192730 2848N 06838W 8276 01739 0109 +161 +150 138021 022 022 000 03
$$
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#160 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:40 pm

IF there turns out to be some sort of consolidation (which I am highly skeptical of after Erika) I think it might be in the form of the vortex getting sucked under the convection rather than reformation, it almost seems like it's being steered by the MLC at the moment.
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