ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#241 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 3:01 pm

The two buoys north of the disturbance are reporting near 20kts now. I can't find anything higher except for one report on the coast of Florida. Definitely no LLC or even a hint of one forming. It's toast as far as development chances. No time now.

#242 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 3:03 pm

The vorticity is getting caught in the overall south to north inflow into the stacked low pressure off of the TX coast.

caneman · #243 Postby **caneman** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 3:04 pm

Does the one off the Texas coast have a chance?

#244 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 3:04 pm

DOA....IMO

#245 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 3:05 pm

First squall line of heavy storms dissipated as it tracked over the Tampa Bay area, lets see what the next line does, hopefully the same.

Weatherwatcher98 · #246 Postby **Weatherwatcher98** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 3:07 pm

I learned a lot today.

#247 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 3:07 pm

caneman wrote:Does the one off the Texas coast have a chance?

Is a cold core since it has the ULL on top of it, but if it sits around for a while it may start getting some subtropical characteristics, IMO. But no model support at this time.

#248 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 3:08 pm

Here's another plot with red crosshairs where the plane found SSW wind at 36-39 kts at FL. Not representative at all of the buoy near the location. Today was its only chance for development. That's slipping away...

Weatherwatcher98 · #249 Postby **Weatherwatcher98** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 3:09 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/

99L is gone

caneman · #250 Postby **caneman** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 3:12 pm

I wondered about that with the ull there. My experience in the past with this type set up that it would be tough to get going then.

caneman · #251 Postby **caneman** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 3:13 pm

NDG wrote:First squall line of heavy storms dissipated as it tracked over the Tampa Bay area, lets see what the next line does, hopefully the same.

We actually got a lot of rain and wind from that on the beach here.

caneman · #252 Postby **caneman** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 3:17 pm

wxman57 wrote:Here's another plot with red crosshairs where the plane found SSW wind at 36-39 kts at FL. Not representative at all of the buoy near the location. Today was its only chance for development. That's slipping away...

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/99Lb.JPG

Well it made a nice run at it today.

rickybobby · #253 Postby **rickybobby** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 3:32 pm

When I was at Ucf it was semi cloudy. When I got home in port orange it started to pour. It's been pouring for the last 20 mins.

Hammy · #254 Postby **Hammy** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 3:38 pm

caneman wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Here's another plot with red crosshairs where the plane found SSW wind at 36-39 kts at FL. Not representative at all of the buoy near the location. Today was its only chance for development. That's slipping away...

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/99Lb.JPG

Well it made a nice run at it today.

Ironically we get (relatively) decent upper winds, as it wasn't enough to inhibit it, but then we get unfavorable low level flow instead.

Weatherwatcher98 · #255 Postby **Weatherwatcher98** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 3:49 pm

Typical for this season

caneman · #256 Postby **caneman** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 3:52 pm

Hammy wrote:
caneman wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Here's another plot with red crosshairs where the plane found SSW wind at 36-39 kts at FL. Not representative at all of the buoy near the location. Today was its only chance for development. That's slipping away...

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/99Lb.JPG

Well it made a nice run at it today.

Ironically we get (relatively) decent upper winds, as it wasn't enough to inhibit it, but then we get unfavorable low level flow instead.

good point

#257 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 4:20 pm

Recon's mission is over, no defined LLC found, nothing more than a broad & elongated circulation as shown on ASCAT last night and this morning.

caneman · #258 Postby **caneman** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 4:27 pm

Actually not quite true ndg. there was an llc that i and other members saw and nhc.confirmed, which fell apart during the day, most likely due to the the circulation out west. Upper level winds became moderately favorable unlike what some had forecasted.

#259 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 4:56 pm

That's your opinion and of the NHC but I will keep saying that they were nothing more than two little eddies rotating around the broad and elongated closed circulation. Last night's ASCAT showed it clearly.

#260 Postby **HurricaneBelle** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:11 pm

This low vs eddy back and forth is truly the greatest controversy since Tastes Great vs Less Filling.

ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

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