ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ozonepete]

This is exactly the scenario I said to watch for last night. That's why I couldn't see writing this off.

[hurricanedude]

abajan....thats all you could post in this thread....where is my s2k disclaimer??? LOL if it will make you happy...here you go......this is my thought and not that of the experts...that better?

[Aric Dunn]

The vort is starting to tuck back under convection.. wonder if another vort pops out to the NE again....

[Hammy]

This is exactly the scenario I said to watch for last night. That's why I couldn't see writing this off.

I'm still not sold at all on this strengthening until the conditions can get better (they seem to be worsening if anything) and the models can prove they are worth anything.

I am prepared to go down with my forecast ship but I feel it will stay afloat as it did with Erika.

As as aside, if it does take the forecast track, they may have to repost those warnings that showed up last night in error.

[terstorm1012]

well this storm's forecast escalated all of a sudden!

will be watching this closely.

[Alyono]

This is exactly the scenario I said to watch for last night. That's why I couldn't see writing this off.

I'm still not sold at all on this strengthening until the conditions can get better (they seem to be worsening if anything) and the models can prove they are worth anything.

I am prepared to go down with my forecast ship but I feel it will stay afloat as it did with Erika.

As as aside, if it does take the forecast track, they may have to repost those warnings that showed up last night in error.

cannot agree with you. I'm seeing this looking MUCH better structurally with increased low level convergence. Once it gets under low shear, it should take off quickly

[LarryWx]

They bumped it a little more to the west. Will be interesting to see the 11 pm advisory. The remark about low confidence is interesting as well.

I have a feeling there will be several more westerly bumps. Here is the 6Z fcast point:

12H 29/0600Z 27.7N 71.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

I'd bet the farm that the LLC will be well south of 27.7 then and quite possibly between 26.5 and 27.0. So, it could be a full degree south then. Also, I expect it to be a good bit east of 71.0 W...maybe near 70.0W.

[gatorcane]

The GFS looks to show TD #11 eventually merging with the a cold front and shows nothing as strong as the ECMWF or UKMET.

[ozonepete]

This is exactly the scenario I said to watch for last night. That's why I couldn't see writing this off.

I'm still not sold at all on this strengthening until the conditions can get better (they seem to be worsening if anything) and the models can prove they are worth anything.

I am prepared to go down with my forecast ship but I feel it will stay afloat as it did with Erika.

As as aside, if it does take the forecast track, they may have to repost those warnings that showed up last night in error.

I would say first of all, conditions are not worsening at all (don't know where you are getting that from) and second of all, when you start seeing model consensus your confidence should go up even if only slightly. I am still taking a wait and see attitude but the southward drift since yesterday increases the chances the models are onto something. Finally, the fact that the models messed up on a number of occasions this season doesn't mean they will this mess up this time since every scenario is different.

As for your last comment, lol. I didn't see it but that must have been bizarre. I wish someone had a copy...

[PTrackerLA]

This is exactly the scenario I said to watch for last night. That's why I couldn't see writing this off.

I'm still not sold at all on this strengthening until the conditions can get better (they seem to be worsening if anything) and the models can prove they are worth anything.

I am prepared to go down with my forecast ship but I feel it will stay afloat as it did with Erika.

As as aside, if it does take the forecast track, they may have to repost those warnings that showed up last night in error.

I would say first of all, conditions are not worsening at all (don't know where you are getting that from) and second of all, when you start seeing model consensus your confidence should go up even if only slightly. I am still taking a wait and see attitude but the southward drift since yesterday increases the chances the models are onto something. Finally, the fact that the models messed up on a number of occasions this season doesn't mean they will this mess up this time since every scenario is different.

As for your last comment, lol. I didn't see it but that must have been bizarre. I wish someone had a copy...

The false warning map shows up on page 4 of this thread. I might add, I will be beyond freaked out if the "intense" models we saw today come close to panning out after that odd image! I agree with Alyono here the overall circulation appears to be strengthening.

[gatorcane]

Saved loop with the potentially decaying LLC (naked swirl) heading south:

[Hammy]

I am still taking a wait and see attitude but the southward drift since yesterday increases the chances the models are onto something. Finally, the fact that the models messed up on a number of occasions this season doesn't mean they will this mess up this time since every scenario is different.

My problem with trusting the model consensus this year is that they have failed each and every time in instances showing anything strong, so I see no reason why this particular instance would be any different. The models underwent extensive upgrades this year and this year is the test of those models to see what bugs need worked out. They simply don't have a good handle on storms or shear this year. GFS has probably performed the best intensity-wise with already developed systems, at least in the 4-5 day time frame, so I'm going with that one here.

[LarryWx]

Wow, that has the look of something that may intensify quite a bit as that LLC gets under the convection being that the shear should now be dropping quite a bit. The LLC is now near 27.0N, 70.3 W.

[gatorcane]

I am still taking a wait and see attitude but the southward drift since yesterday increases the chances the models are onto something. Finally, the fact that the models messed up on a number of occasions this season doesn't mean they will this mess up this time since every scenario is different.

My problem with trusting the model consensus this year is that they have failed each and every time in instances showing anything strong, so I see no reason why this particular instance would be any different. The models underwent extensive upgrades this year and this year is the test of those models to see what bugs need worked out. They simply don't have a good handle on storms or shear this year. GFS has probably performed the best intensity-wise with already developed systems, at least in the 4-5 day time frame, so I'm going with that one here.

Agreed. This is going to be a great test for the models especially when you look at how the GFS missed Sandy's turn NW into the NE United States back in 2012 while the ECMWF predicted it correctly, prompting some scrutiny of this model and the various upgrades after that.

Now here we are again with a somewhat similar situation he ECMWF and UKMET are showing with a NW turn into the United States, while the GFS is not showing anything as intense as it merges with a frontal system.

[TheStormExpert]

Unlike with Erika, if that LLC can get aligned and tucked under the MLC it may be go time!

Of course even I am skeptical about this thing taking off after the countless model fails with models such as the Euro and ect. Personally I think the NHC is making a very good call only going with a 50mph TS at peak.

[TheStormExpert]

Strange to think that 24hrs. ago the thinking was that this would not amount to more than a very short lived TD due to unfavorable conditions by late Monday/Early Tuesday.

Now the thinking has changed some and forecasted strong shear is no longer expected to be there at least at the moment. Just goes to show how HORRIBLE the shear forecasts are even just a day or two out.

Still plenty of room for improving even with our Global Models.

[Hammy]

GFS strengthens this very slightly as a non-tropical system after 72 hours but seems to be as a frontal low so it still continues to have a weaker system that eventually gets pulled into the front.

Does not show TS intensity at all as a tropical system and even ET peak is only 35kt.

[LarryWx]

Based on the latest enhanced IR loop, the convection is getting colder SE of the center. Also, it looks like higher clouds are now advancing W. I think this may mean the shear is decreasing rapidly. If so, this could get quite interesting by tomorrow!
This looks like it could reorganize as far south as ~24-25N, which is still WAY south of the model consensus. If it ends up moving W along 24-25N for awhile, FL threat is going to increase markedly.

[ozonepete]

GFS strengthens this very slightly as a non-tropical system after 72 hours but seems to be as a frontal low so it still continues to have a weaker system that eventually gets pulled into the front.

Does not show TS intensity at all as a tropical system and even ET peak is only 35kt.

Though I know you've said you're going with the GFS, it's way too early to assume that the GFS is right or wrong. Why not just wait and see if the models come into agreement over the next day or two. There's no rush to declare it dead or a cat 5 before Wednesday, is there?

[ScottNAtlanta]

This was the Upper Level Low that I mentioned last week and asked if it looked like it was generating a surface feature. The HWRF is pretty scary.