ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

tropicwatch · #261 Postby **tropicwatch** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:14 pm

Wow if only it had more time. Look at what's above 99L now. The mid shear is also relaxing in the east gulf.

#262 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:16 pm

HurricaneBelle wrote:This low vs eddy back and forth is truly the greatest controversy since Tastes Great vs Less Filling.

Yeah, it is comical if we all step back and look at it that way, the things we argue about when the season is slow with a bunch of nothing more naked swirls lol.

caneman · #263 Postby **caneman** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:49 pm

NDG wrote::uarrow: That's your opinion and of the NHC but I will keep saying that they were nothing more than two little eddies rotating around the broad and elongated closed circulation. Last night's ASCAT showed it clearly.

when in doubt, go with the nhc or use a disclaimer

#264 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 6:19 pm

We're getting pounded here just East of Destin in Miramar Bch. 30mph winds and I'm close to 6" of rain today so far, still coming down in buckets.

Good thing 99L fizzled or we'd be in trouble with any more wind and rain on this saturated ground.

#265 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 6:34 pm

A sharp trough of low pressure located over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico about 150 miles west of Tampa, Florida, continues to produce
a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and portions of the southeastern United States. Surface
observations and data from a reconnaissance aircraft from a few
hours ago indicate that the system has become elongated. However,
the aircraft did find gale-force winds in the eastern portion of the
trough. Strong upper-level winds will likely prevent significant
development of this system before it moves inland over the northern
Gulf coast on Tuesday. Another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Tuesday
morning, if necessary. Regardless of whether or not this system
becomes a tropical cyclone, locally heavy rains are likely over
portions of the southeastern United States during the next couple of
days. For additional information on this weather system, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and products
from your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

ronjon · #266 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 6:47 pm

Radar from Tampa shows some sorta of circulation tightening up off of Ft Myers. Not sure if it's mid level or down at the surface.

caneman · #267 Postby **caneman** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 6:50 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:We're getting pounded here just East of Destin in Miramar Bch. 30mph winds and I'm close to 6" of rain today so far, still coming down in buckets.

Good thing 99L fizzled or we'd be in trouble with any more wind and rain on this saturated ground.

I hear ya dean. Same here in Clearwater Beach and looks like another 24 hours of this. Hope those gale force.winds don't make it to the coast. We did have some significant winds with storms earlier.

caneman · #268 Postby **caneman** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 6:56 pm

Pressure now down to 29.72 at one buoy and still falling 1006 millibar. 25 mph winds with gusts to 30.

caneman · #269 Postby **caneman** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:00 pm

I was going to say we dodged a bullet but then I just looked at the radar. Yikes.

TheStormExpert · #270 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:07 pm

Don't understand why recon would fly into this pointless mess when there is something potentially more threatening to the U.S. to the east?

robbielyn · #271 Postby **robbielyn** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:33 pm

probably should this miraculously develop its got nowhere to go it hits land tomorrow so they are being vigilant. td11has a little more time. I bet they go out tomorrow to investigate td 11 after all especially if it develops into ts joaquin. im not seeing anything of a swirl by fort myers this system never got off the ground

TheStormExpert · #272 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 8:05 pm

New Video Discussion from Tropical Tidbits Levi Cowan.

@TropicalTidbits: I've posted a video discussion on Invest 99L and Tropical Depression 11:

http://t.co/M4cW7AUwYP

#273 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 8:23 pm

I got more rain (western Seminole County) today than the Tampa Bay area which is in a flood watch. Received 2" in less than an hr, it was intense.

caneman · #274 Postby **caneman** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 8:27 pm

Alot.more training for the next 24 hours too

#275 Postby **HurricaneBelle** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 8:30 pm

NDG wrote:I got more rain (western Seminole County) today than the Tampa Bay area which is in a flood watch. Received 2" in less than an hr, it was intense.

That radar product can't be completely accurate. It shows a trace throughout Pinellas County where it's been raining almost non-stop (outside of an hour break or so) since about 1:30 PM, and that band that went through Orlando originally came through Clearwater around 2:45, while I was driving and the rainfall was so intense I could hardly see at one point. What's funny is that band petered out as it reached Pasco, then re-intensified late this afternoon near the Hernando-Citrus border as it arced ESE-SE into inland central FL.

#276 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 8:36 pm

HurricaneBelle wrote:
NDG wrote:I got more rain (western Seminole County) today than the Tampa Bay area which is in a flood watch. Received 2" in less than an hr, it was intense.

That radar product can't be completely accurate. It shows a trace throughout Pinellas County where it's been raining almost non-stop (outside of an hour break or so) since about 1:30 PM, and that band that went through Orlando originally came through Clearwater around 2:45, while I was driving and the rainfall was so intense I could hardly see at one point. What's funny is that band petered out as it reached Pasco, then re-intensified late this afternoon near the Hernando-Citrus border as it arced ESE-SE into inland central FL.

It intensified as it reached my area and it slowed down at the same time. Loop below shows going through your area and it went through a lot quicker than here, the rains over your area right now seem to be dying out already. But yes, I am sure you got more than a trace, sometimes radar estimate does not pick up well on tropical rains.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displ ... duration=8

bamajammer4eva · #277 Postby **bamajammer4eva** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:00 pm

The area circled in white looks like it has a spin to it. Is this the same area that was showing up on Houston radar in the NW gulf last night?

#278 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:18 pm

No I do not think so, must be a new area.

tropicwatch · #279 Postby **tropicwatch** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:19 pm

No, before it came onshore Local mets were talking about a mesoscale low that had a pretty vibrant spin to it.

#280 Postby **northjaxpro** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:26 pm

Well, at least it appears that some much needed rain fell across the Florida panhandle region this evening.

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