ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

At this time I am going with the GFS, it might be more wrong than right but given the history of the Euro this year in this part of the Atlantic it does not have a good record. For days the Euro was forecasting Ida to become a major hurricane in its medium to long range forecast.
As always a blend between the two will be most likely the outcome.

[ozonepete]

This is going to be a great test for the models especially when you look at how the GFS missed Sandy's turn NW into the NE United States back in 2012 while the ECMWF predicted it correctly, prompting some scrutiny of this model and the various upgrades after that.

Now here we are again with a somewhat similar situation he ECMWF and UKMET are showing with a NW turn into the United States, while the GFS is not showing anything as intense as it merges with a frontal system.

Whoa. Wait. The GFS did not miss Sandy's turn at all. The Euro had it first but the GFS and all other models came in line with the sharp leftward turn at least 4 days out. That's a big difference from missing the turn. That's why I keep saying give it time. The prudent thing to do, always, is wait until 3 days from landfall and see if the models come into agreement. That would be Wednesday afternoon. And if by then they don't come into general agreement, then start tearing your hair out.

[LarryWx]

NHC was pretty quick to make this invest. A bit surprised considering the lack of model support and no immediate threat to land.

Not sure if there is some other reason which made them pull the trigger so quickly.

Gator,
Well, if you count the highly unreliable 0Z CMC, that has changed. It takes Invest 98L, develops it into a TC, turns it WNW underneath highs, develops it into a 994 mb strong TS shear be darned, and hits near Daytona bch/St. Aug. next Wed night/Thu 9/30-10/1:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=222

It looks a bit like the BAMD. Same timeframe but 200 miles north. But it is the CMC.

The 0Z GFS keeps it very weak and moves it NNW.

Bumping this just in case this were to sink far enough south before moving west to threaten FL. The 0Z Saturday CMC on its own (along with a couple of ens members) had this hit the east coast of FL with a 994 mb TC this coming Wed night/Thu. It did have a good bit further south path than just about everything else since til 12Z today as it may have been harping on the midlevel circ.

[NDG]

This is going to be a great test for the models especially when you look at how the GFS missed Sandy's turn NW into the NE United States back in 2012 while the ECMWF predicted it correctly, prompting some scrutiny of this model and the various upgrades after that.

Now here we are again with a somewhat similar situation he ECMWF and UKMET are showing with a NW turn into the United States, while the GFS is not showing anything as intense as it merges with a frontal system.

Whoa. Wait. The GFS did not miss Sandy's turn at all. The Euro had it first but the GFS and all other models came in line with the sharp leftward turn at least 4 days out. That's a big difference from missing the turn. That's why I keep saying give it time. The prudent thing to do, always, is wait until 3 days from landfall and see if the models come into agreement. That would be Wednesday afternoon. And if by then they don't come into general agreement, then start tearing your hair out.

Yes, correct about they GFS and if I remember correctly the Euro if anything was a little left biased with Sandy at the end.

[TheStormExpert]

Based on the latest enhanced IR loop, the convection is getting colder SE of the center. Also, it looks like higher clouds are now advancing W. I think this may mean the shear is decreasing rapidly. If so, this could get quite interesting by tomorrow!
This looks like it could reorganize as far south as ~24-25N, which is still WAY south of the model consensus. If it ends up moving W along 24-25N for awhile, FL threat is going to increase markedly.

How could this possibly be a FL threat at the latitude it is at? Yes it may head SW for some time but likely not close to long enough for it to be a more threatening system to the Bahamas and even FL as what the Euro is showing.

Looks like there should be a weakness opening up in a day or two that should turn this thing NW then eventually N towards the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. Coastlines.

[gatorcane]

Yes the Euro got Sandy's turn into the northeast US long before the GFS.

[Hammy]

One thing is certain, we should at least get a clear picture of the circulation tonight given the next ASCAT pass should go directly over the strongest winds to the east.

[NDG]

NHC was pretty quick to make this invest. A bit surprised considering the lack of model support and no immediate threat to land.

Not sure if there is some other reason which made them pull the trigger so quickly.

Gator,
Well, if you count the highly unreliable 0Z CMC, that has changed. It takes Invest 98L, develops it into a TC, turns it WNW underneath highs, develops it into a 994 mb strong TS shear be darned, and hits near Daytona bch/St. Aug. next Wed night/Thu 9/30-10/1:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=222

It looks a bit like the BAMD. Same timeframe but 200 miles north. But it is the CMC.

The 0Z GFS keeps it very weak and moves it NNW.

Bumping this just in case this were to sink far enough south before moving west to threaten FL. The 0Z Saturday CMC on its own (along with a couple of ens members) had this hit the east coast of FL with a 994 mb TC this coming Wed night/Thu. It did have a good bit further south path than just about everything else since til 12Z today as it may have been harping on the midlevel circ.

It will have to start moving westward fairly soon and fast before a deep trough is forecasted to dig down across the SE US by the end of the week if it was to threaten FL, IMO.

[LarryWx]

Based on the latest enhanced IR loop, the convection is getting colder SE of the center. Also, it looks like higher clouds are now advancing W. I think this may mean the shear is decreasing rapidly. If so, this could get quite interesting by tomorrow!
This looks like it could reorganize as far south as ~24-25N, which is still WAY south of the model consensus. If it ends up moving W along 24-25N for awhile, FL threat is going to increase markedly.

How could this possibly be a FL threat at the latitude it is at? Yes it may head SW for some time but likely not close to long enough for it to be a more threatening system to the Bahamas and even FL as what the Euro is showing.

Looks like there should be a weakness opening up in a day or two that should turn this thing NW then eventually N towards the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. Coastlines.

When I say increase markedly, I mean on a % basis vs. the very low threat level that we've been assuming based on model consensus. I'm not saying that would necessarily make it a high threat. But, if thins change around enough, the whole atmospheric setup could be reshuffled enough to make it at least a small possibility. Look how close the 12Z Euro got and it is based on a track that is likely going to end up a good bit too far north.
What if it were to go west around 24N and then recurve sharply into S FL?

[rickybobby]

CBS said it should be a tropical storm at the 11 pm update.

[hurricanedude]

quite possibly it will be upgraded...looks decent

[gatorcane]

The 18Z HWRF hits New Jersey again with a major hurricane.

[hurricanedude]

IMO.....not an expert...but NC...VA....MD...DE....NJ are in the cross hairs from a landfall threat.....

[TheStormExpert]

IMO.....not an expert...but NC...VA....MD...DE....NJ are in the cross hairs from a landfall threat.....

Yes most certainly a landfall from a TC of some sorts. I'm still leaning with the NHC on strength for now until I see future model runs.

[gatorcane]

Looking good - in fact I would be shocked if it doesn't become TS Joaquin within the next 24-48 hours, probably more like within 24 hours.

[abajan]

abajan....thats all you could post in this thread....where is my s2k disclaimer??? LOL if it will make you happy...here you go......this is my thought and not that of the experts...that better?

I could just as easily have reported the post but chose not to. Perhaps, you'd better read the rules again because "this is my thought and not that of the experts" doesn't quite cut it either.

[TheStormExpert]

Looking good - in fact I would be shocked if it doesn't become TS Joaquin within the next 24-48 hours, probably more like within 24 hours.

http://i.imgur.com/qBgWGs0.gif

Convection still looks quite ragged but that could always I guess.

[Aric Dunn]

upper level outflow on the western side has greatly improved. mid level is also relaxing some but still keeping it in check. Interesting though the vortex has now tucked back in the convection and firing now.

Given its current cyclonic loop the vortex will be aligned with the mid level over the next few hours.

[Alyono]

I'd like to know why recon was cancelled for tomorrow

[ozonepete]

upper level outflow on the western side has greatly improved. mid level is also relaxing some but still keeping it in check. Interesting though the vortex has now tucked back in the convection and firing now.

Given its current cyclonic loop the vortex will be aligned with the mid level over the next few hours.

Yup. This consolidation could be the one to stick. Just sucks that sundown is here and we won't be able to see if another vort pops out to the northeast or not. I don't know if any good microwave images are coming but there is an ASCAT pass coming soon I understand.