ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

I bet this intensifies faster than forecast.. ingredients are in place. if it finds that sweet spot..

[Hurricaneman]

I bet this intensifies faster than forecast.. ingredients are in place. if it finds that sweet spot..

So are you thinking the 2nd major of the year or a low end hurricane

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ozonepete]

I bet this intensifies faster than forecast.. ingredients are in place. if it finds that sweet spot..

I think you are on to something, Aric. Convection is really starting to fill in on the western side now and outflow cirrus there is impressive as well. Could take off at any time in the next 24 hours.

[emeraldislenc]

It is going to be an interesting week along the coast of NC

[LarryWx]

This NHC track has it turn NNW Wed night. Currently, only the GFS of the major models (at least nontropical ones) has it turn as early as Wed night. The rest turn it sometime between Thu and the Euro's Fri AM. So, based on this, the next advisories could very well have it go longer before turning. Also, this track has it move WNW at only 5 mph. However, should it not turn til, say, Fri AM and should it move W to WNW at a faster 8 mph (10 degrees lat in 3 days) before the turn, the Bahamas at a minimum would be threatened. And FL isn't far beyond. It is still a low threat there for now.

[FireRat]

Looks like this one's gonna be "joaquin" around with many along the east coast

[northjaxpro]

I bet this intensifies faster than forecast.. ingredients are in place. if it finds that sweet spot..

I think you are on to something, Aric. Convection is really starting to fill in on the western side now and outflow cirrus there is impressive as well. Could take off at any time in the next 24 hours.

I agree as well. The overall structure of Joaquin has been improving all day with convection expanding. You also are beginning to see improvement with the outflow, indicating to me that Joaquin is taking advantage of much lighter shear environment now. Joaquin possibly could start to really get its act together and organize quicker than forecast.

[rickybobby]

Gator,
Do you think FL is still pretty much in the clear or do you think that has changed?

Per wesh 2 the cold front this weekend is our saving grace. The cold front should make it turn north.

[northjaxpro]

This NHC track has it turn NNW Wed night. Currently, only the GFS of the major models (at least nontropical ones) has it turn as early as Wed night. The rest turn it sometime between Thu and the Euro's Fri AM. So, based on this, the next advisories could very well have it go longer before turning. Also, this track has it move WNW at only 5 mph. However, should it not turn til, say, Fri AM and should it move W to WNW at a faster 8 mph (10 degrees lat in 3 days) before the turn, the Bahamas at a minimum would be threatened. And FL isn't far beyond. It is still a low threat there for now.

Good evening Larry. Joaquin will track on a slow header more 285 degrees imo and will make the turn northwest to north-northwest within the next 48 hours. I think the cyclone will turn before reaching 75 degrees Longitude, enough to keep it just east of the northwesternmost Bahamas and then the question will be how close Joaquin will get to the Mid Atlantic coast by late this week. If it moves on the angle I am leaning towards, the NC northward will really have to watch this situation closely. It will be a very interesting late week through this weekend up there along the Mid Atlantc coast up into New England.

[PTrackerLA]

This is really getting interesting with newly formed Joaquin. He is looking mighty impressive this evening:

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

So here are the things I am noticing early on with Joaquin.

As mentioned previously, early forecasts when this became a depression were eerily similar in intensity to what Bob's were before it was named in 1991. That storm was a nasty little surprise for New England, briefly becoming a Category 3 before weakening a bit but still causing a lot of damage in the area. Like models are hinting with Joaquin, it found just the right environment to really take advantage and ramp up as much as possible after long odds early on. I expect something similar with this one too. Keep in mind, the trend is your friend, and intensity forecasts are trending up with Joaquin.

As far as the track, this is already moving a bit further south and west than initially forecast. This is also very dangerous for the East Coast. As is, the track is dangerous, heading straight towards New Jersey and even New England. But the track seems to be judging a little west each time. I would absolutely be watching this in North Carolina too, especially on the ever-vulnerable Outer Banks, and as far south as Florida.

Now if I had to make a prediction? Based on what is taking place and what I know from history, I would go with a hurricane, probably high-end Category 1 or low-end Category 2, in a couple days and reaching North Carolina by Thursday night. It will also probably be moving north by then, and I think will either hug coastline just onshore up through New England and weaken somewhat quickly, or head just offshore and weaken a lot slower towards a possible hurricane anywhere between New Jersey and Cape Cod. I would lean towards the latter for now, but it is too early to say and is a very low-confidence and unofficial prediction.

PLEASE have your guard up no matter where you live along the East Coast until you know this storm is safely past you and going to miss! This is a very unpredictable storm and could do many different things right now. I hope it doesn't strengthen like it could and/or reaches the coast, but please prepare for the worst!

-Andrew92

[emeraldislenc]

When will the models come out?

[northjaxpro]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

So here are the things I am noticing early on with Joaquin.

As mentioned previously, early forecasts when this became a depression were eerily similar in intensity to what Bob's were before it was named in 1991. That storm was a nasty little surprise for New England, briefly becoming a Category 3 before weakening a bit but still causing a lot of damage in the area. Like models are hinting with Joaquin, it found just the right environment to really take advantage and ramp up as much as possible after long odds early on. I expect something similar with this one too. Keep in mind, the trend is your friend, and intensity forecasts are trending up with Joaquin.

As far as the track, this is already moving a bit further south and west than initially forecast. This is also very dangerous for the East Coast. As is, the track is dangerous, heading straight towards New Jersey and even New England. But the track seems to be judging a little west each time. I would absolutely be watching this in North Carolina too, especially on the ever-vulnerable Outer Banks, and as far south as Florida.


Now if I had to make a prediction? Based on what is taking place and what I know from history, I would go with a hurricane, probably high-end Category 1 or low-end Category 2, in a couple days and reaching North Carolina by Thursday night. It will also probably be moving north by then, and I think will either hug coastline just onshore up through New England and weaken somewhat quickly, or head just offshore and weaken a lot slower towards a possible hurricane anywhere between New Jersey and Cape Cod. I would lean towards the latter for now, but it is too early to say and is a very low-confidence and unofficial prediction.

PLEASE have your guard up no matter where you live along the East Coast until you know this storm is safely past you and going to miss! This is a very unpredictable storm and could do many different things right now. I hope it doesn't strengthen like it could and/or reaches the coast, but please prepare for the worst!

-Andrew92

I agree that Joaquin is increasingly becoming a potential problem late this week and into the upcoming weekend. I think people will become more aware with Joaquin's potential, especially when the media outlets focuses on the cyclone and potential impacts on the Mid Atlantic and New England region as the week progresses.

[CrazyC83]

After landfall is Joaquin more likely to push inland or just hug the coast northeast?

[CrazyC83]

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/15092 ... _ships.txt

Code: Select all

                   * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  ELEVEN      AL112015  09/29/15  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    30    32    33    35    37    41    45    51    57    63    65    59    52
V (KT) LAND       30    32    33    35    37    41    45    51    57    63    65    59    52
V (KT) LGE mod    30    30    31    32    33    36    39    44    52    63    69    63    51
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        23    20    19    15    12    16     7     4    11    21    28    31    43
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -2    -1     0     0     0    -1    -2    -4    -1     5    10    11     6
SHEAR DIR        343   356     3    18    18    13   352   294   218   209   196   195   186
SST (C)         29.8  29.8  29.8  29.7  29.7  29.6  29.4  29.1  28.6  28.0  27.9  26.9  23.2
POT. INT. (KT)   163   163   163   162   161   159   155   151   144   136   136   125    95
ADJ. POT. INT.   137   138   139   137   136   133   129   126   122   115   116   108    84
200 MB T (C)   -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -53.3 -53.9
TH_E DEV (C)       9     9     9    10    10     9    10     9     9     5     4     2     1
700-500 MB RH     63    61    62    62    65    64    67    66    62    58    49    46    46
MODEL VTX (KT)    14    14    13    13    13    13    12    12    11    14    18    15    15
850 MB ENV VOR    54    41    31    33    27    21    40    64   111   116   137    95    65
200 MB DIV         8     0     8     4     0    10    36    41    67    57    56    47    91
700-850 TADV      -2    -3    -2    -1    -1     0     0     2     0    20    53    85    19
LAND (KM)        782   783   788   780   770   723   668   663   610   468   311   223   113
LAT (DEG N)     26.8  26.9  26.9  27.1  27.2  27.6  27.9  28.6  29.8  31.3  33.2  35.9  39.4
LONG(DEG W)     70.2  70.7  71.2  71.7  72.2  72.8  73.4  73.6  73.8  73.7  73.7  73.4  73.0
STM SPEED (KT)     4     4     5     5     4     3     3     5     7     8    12    16    17
HEAT CONTENT      60    48    44    46    50    57    61    54    31    20    17     8     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/  5      CX,CY:  -1/ -4
  T-12 MAX WIND:  30            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  518  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  27.7 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  40.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  14.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   1.   1.   3.   6.  11.  16.  20.  23.  24.  25.  25.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   3.   4.   5.   6.   7.   7.   7.   5.   3.   1.  -4.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -7. -10.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -2.   1.  -2.  -2.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   5.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -3.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS       -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   3.   5.   7.  11.  15.  21.  27.  33.  35.  29.  22.

   ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 ELEVEN     09/29/15  00 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-49.5 to  33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.7
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  18.2 Range: 28.8 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.5
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  27.7 Range: 37.5 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.4
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  69.8 Range: 43.2 to  93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.7
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 107.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.5
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  49.6 Range:  0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.1
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :   4.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  34.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    15% is   1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     9% is   1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     5% is   1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 ELEVEN     09/29/15  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 ELEVEN     09/29/2015  00 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED

Best chance for strengthening looks to be Wednesday and Thursday. Shear ramps up on Friday.

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

After landfall is Joaquin more likely to push inland or just hug the coast northeast?

For now I say it will stay just offshore, ala Bob, Gloria, and Irene. My North Carolina strike basically puts it right on the Outer Banks for now, probably between Morehead City and Cape Hatteras. If it is already picked up by then, in that location, most storms seem to head back offshore and cause more problems farther up while weakening only slowly.

-Andrew92

[South Texas Storms]

When will the models come out?

The 0z GFS is running right now. The HWRF, CMC, UKMET will come out in about an hour or two and the Euro will come out in about 3 hours.

[seussianagenda]

Norfolk needs to keep an eye out on this. The merging of 99l and this system could wreak absolute havoc.

[tolakram]

live ir loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-70&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray

[Alyono]

the MU still wants to start transitioning this by NC

Louis Uccelleni, FIX YOUR MODEL