ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

A few ASCAT barbs showed flagged 40kt, several unflagged 35kt.

[CrazyC83]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

After landfall is Joaquin more likely to push inland or just hug the coast northeast?

For now I say it will stay just offshore, ala Bob, Gloria, and Irene. My North Carolina strike basically puts it right on the Outer Banks for now, probably between Morehead City and Cape Hatteras. If it is already picked up by then, in that location, most storms seem to head back offshore and cause more problems farther up while weakening only slowly.

-Andrew92

That at least keeps me out of *most* of it, although rain is still very possible. I know the GFDL and HWRF took it right over me...

[rickybobby]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

After landfall is Joaquin more likely to push inland or just hug the coast northeast?

For now I say it will stay just offshore, ala Bob, Gloria, and Irene. My North Carolina strike basically puts it right on the Outer Banks for now, probably between Morehead City and Cape Hatteras. If it is already picked up by then, in that location, most storms seem to head back offshore and cause more problems farther up while weakening only slowly.

-Andrew92

Wesh 2 said people from NC to MA should keep an eye on it.

[Andrew92]

As long as I'm bringing up Irene though, I'd be ready for significant flooding inland. A location of near 45N 75W is dangerously close to where Irene unleashed its horrific flooding in Vermont, and that storm passed east of those coordinates.

A heavy rain threat for you should be considered a very strong possibility from this thing at this point if it follows the track I am suggesting.

-Andrew92

[Andrew92]

Additionally, to go back to my Belle and Bob intensification trends....

Belle took not quite 24 hours from the time it became a tropical storm to become a hurricane, and Bob took exactly 24 hours. Not saying that will happen this time, and not sure conditions are all the way favorable yet, but it's definitely food for thought considering those were El Nino years (yes, I know 1991 was really a Modoki).

-Andrew92

[CrazyC83]

Additionally, to go back to my Belle and Bob intensification trends....

Belle took not quite 24 hours from the time it became a tropical storm to become a hurricane, and Bob took exactly 24 hours. Not saying that will happen this time, and not sure conditions are all the way favorable yet, but it's definitely food for thought considering those were El Nino years (yes, I know 1991 was really a Modoki).

-Andrew92

I'm thinking the peak intensity will be late Thursday or early Friday, since that is when conditions are most favorable. That is when it should be closest to the Outer Banks?

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

You know, after a closer review of the graphics archive, I am thinking this could be later than I thought now. If the trend is your friend, well the forecasts are trending a little later approaching the Outer Banks than before. Yesterday at this time it was looking like my original proposed time of late Thursday, maybe after midnight Friday, but now looks like Friday evening. However, my best guess is it gets there sometime on Friday.

And remember, I am not a pro met so take my opinion with a grain of salt!

-Andrew92

[Ntxw]

Whatever happens with Joaquin intensity wise...regardless the northeastern US is going to be in for quite a flooding event potential via Joaquin/trough combo. Could be disastrous in that alone for a densely populated area.

[tatertawt24]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

So here are the things I am noticing early on with Joaquin.

As mentioned previously, early forecasts when this became a depression were eerily similar in intensity to what Bob's were before it was named in 1991. That storm was a nasty little surprise for New England, briefly becoming a Category 3 before weakening a bit but still causing a lot of damage in the area. Like models are hinting with Joaquin, it found just the right environment to really take advantage and ramp up as much as possible after long odds early on. I expect something similar with this one too. Keep in mind, the trend is your friend, and intensity forecasts are trending up with Joaquin.

Would a Bob-like storm be possible this time of year? The SST's in August should be much warmer than in October. Even in Bob, by the time he reached the coast he had started falling apart.

[Andrew92]

Hazel pulled it off and then some in October 1954. I would say a storm as strong as Bob is very much a possibility this time of year.

-Andrew92

[Cyclenall]

That at least keeps me out of *most* of it, although rain is still very possible. I know the GFDL and HWRF took it right over me...

If Joaquin was to move more westwards into Ontario as remnants you would be concerned about that? I know for my part of the province and my own opinions on it I would be more worried about untied shoelaces as significant impacts from tropical systems here are unbelievably rare. The much hyped up Hurricane Isabel remnants moving into Ontario event brought some very light rain showers here...

[Kingarabian]

Hope everyone stays safe. The media is going to have a field day with this one.

[fci]

Hope everyone stays safe. The media is going to have a field day with this one.

What does that mean?

[Ntxw]

Hope everyone stays safe. The media is going to have a field day with this one.

What does that mean?

When systems starts effecting the Northeastern US, the media will be all over it from every angle. Comparisons to Irene, Sandy etc

[CrazyC83]

That at least keeps me out of *most* of it, although rain is still very possible. I know the GFDL and HWRF took it right over me...

If Joaquin was to move more westwards into Ontario as remnants you would be concerned about that? I know for my part of the province and my own opinions on it I would be more worried about untied shoelaces as significant impacts from tropical systems here are unbelievably rare. The much hyped up Hurricane Isabel remnants moving into Ontario event brought some very light rain showers here...

You are much farther west though, and some models push the impacts almost to 80W.

[fci]

I understand that this will get media attention.
What's the problem with that?

[Ntxw]

There isn't, he was just pointing out the media will have a lot to talk about especially with some of the model runs

Rbtop

[Hammy]

Convection is being pushed further south over the last few hours. I still think the shear will increase and this may be a sign of this happening.

[tatertawt24]

Hazel pulled it off and then some in October 1954. I would say a storm as strong as Bob is very much a possibility this time of year.

-Andrew92

Pretty sure Hazel was already starting to become extratropical at landfall, but I suppose that's just technicality in the grand scheme of things.

[LarryWx]

Convection is being pushed further south over the last few hours. I still think the shear will increase and this may be a sign of this happening.

But will this again lead to a further south track via redevelopment or pulling LLC further south again? The modesl keep playing catchup and keep tracking further south.