Texas Fall-2015

[Ntxw]

Oh believe me wxman57 is around and posting. He's just avoiding us here because Houston is experiencing frosty temperatures for his liking at the moment. High's there again today won't be breaking 80 much if at all!

Euro isn't as cool as GFS, low 80s and mid 60s for lows but it's been consistently warmer than the GFS overall anyway.

Next weekend will be beautiful weather to attend the State Fair

[JDawg512]

Looks like EWX will stick with a blend between Euro and GFS for now until one or the other comes into alignment.

It seems to me that the Mets at EWX model hug quite a bit. There's other factors to take into account besides models but I guess I can't blame them for being wary.

[weatherdude1108]

Looks like EWX will stick with a blend between Euro and GFS for now until one or the other comes into alignment.

It seems to me that the Mets at EWX model hug quite a bit. There's other factors to take into account besides models but I guess I can't blame them for being wary.

Yeah, just saw that. They do like to model hug, and IMO should interject historical climatology and instinct more into their solutions. But climatology isn't always reliable either. And sometimes instinct wins out over all models and climatology. I'm pulling for the GFS myself. Anyway. I would not want their jobs.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 281948
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
248 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...SO FAR COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS HAS BEEN RATHER LIMITED WITH VORT AND MOISTURE PIVOTING
AROUND NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLATED POPS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 THROUGH SUNSET. MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
PULL EAST TONIGHT THE GRADUALLY OPEN INTO A TROUGH OVER LOUISIANA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED POPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTER COUNTIES WITH MOST AREAS DRY AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THAT
TIME.

MODELS THEN DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE DOES APPEAR
TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
DIGS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE 12Z GFS THEN MAINTAINS A
BROAD TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES SENDING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. IN ADDITION THE GFS INGESTS A PORTION OF
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MARTY OVER THE PACIFIC INTO THE
SUBTROPICAL FLOW OVER TEXAS...AND HAS WETTER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN ON THE OTHER HAND
DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
DURING THIS TIME AND BUILD A WEAK RIDGE BACK OVER THE AREA. THE
REMNANT MOISTURE WITH MARTY IN THESE SOLUTIONS INITIALLY IS MUCH
FARTHER WEST...ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FAR WEST TEXAS...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE EVENTUALLY EJECTING EASTWARD BEYOND THE
7 DAY FORECAST. THERE IS LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. AT THIS TIME A BLENDED SOLUTION IS
CHOSEN...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS MONDAY AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER...UNTIL THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF COMES IN LINE WITH THE GFS
OR VICE VERSA.

[Tireman4]

HGX AFD...

They are all blending..EWX and HGX...humm...

XUS64 KHGX 282035
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
335 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SE TEXAS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF CONCERN FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH ONE AREAS SEEMS TO BE WANING IN
POTENTIAL. THE FIRST AREA OF CONVECTION FROM CONROE TO CROCKETT
SHOULD MOVE WEST AROUND THE UPPER LOW THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED OR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THAT SAID...LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM CROCKETT TO COLLEGE STATION. THIS
AREA HAS HAD MORE HEATING SO COULD SEE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. RAIN RATES RANGE FROM 0.5-1 INCH AN HOUR BUT DUE
TO SLOW MOVEMENT...SOME AREAS OF MONTGOMERY COUNTY HAVE GOTTEN 1-3
INCHES OF RAIN BASED ON RADAR ESTIMATES.

SECOND AREA OF CONCERN REMAINS OUT OVER THE GULF APPROACHING
BOLIVAR PENINSULA TO SABINE PASS. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A NON TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED
TO PRODUCE HIGH RAIN RATES AND SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE
GULF. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION MAY PERSIST MORE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS THAN THE INLAND ACTIVITY. IF THIS ACTIVITY DOES MOVE INTO
GALVESTON/HOUSTON AREAS...WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH RAIN RATES
AND EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR A FLOOD THREAT. THANKFULLY
THESE AREAS HAVE NOT HAD TOO MUCH RAINFALL ALREADY SO THESE AREAS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE AREA IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE OUT LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER W TEXAS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BUT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AGAIN FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. AFTER FRIDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE HUGE FORECAST
DIFFERENCES WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO SOME 10-15 DEGREE DIFFERENCES IN
TEMPS. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW NE FLOW AT 850MB WITH FALLING 850MB
TEMPS SHOWING SOME COLD ADVECTION. TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN BUT NOT
WILLING TO GO AS LOW AS THE GFS BUT THINK THE ECMWF MAY BE TOO
HIGH WITH TEMPS. OVERALL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS
WITH SOME SLIGHT FAVORING OF THE ECMWF SINCE IT HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT
MORE CONSISTENT. REGARDLESS...CONSIDER THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEING
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND LIKELY CHANGE QUITE A BIT UNTIL THE
MODELS CAN GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS TRANSITIONAL PATTERN.

39

[Brent]

ZFP updated from FWD... they trended a tad cooler

Friday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s.
Saturday
Mostly sunny with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s.
Sunday
Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows around 60.
Monday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND EXTREME EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
ROTATE ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT
INTO LOUISIANA ON TUESDAY AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY BUT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION
TUESDAY EVENING.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARM CONDITIONS.

THE EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE UPPER PATTERN
FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEY ALL HAVE SOME RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY BUT THE GFS SOLUTION DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY FROM THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. THE GFS DEVELOPS A TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND MOVES IT EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY AND RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS DO DEVELOP THE CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER
TROUGH FRIDAY BUT ALSO INDICATES A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS UPPER LOW
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN STRONG BUT PROGRESSIVE WITH A SOUTHERLY
MOVEMENT THROUGH CALIFORNIA SUNDAY. IF THIS SOLUTION
VERIFIES...THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH WOULD ACTUALLY WEAKEN AND PHASE
INTO THE STRONGER SYSTEM. THIS WOULD HOLD THE COLD AIR AND
PRECIPITATION UP UNTIL TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. FOR
NOW...WE WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS AND BRING SOME
DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SOME LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY IN
THE COMING DAYS SINCE SOME SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGES COULD OCCUR
AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF OCTOBER.

[JDawg512]

Good to see all of the NWS offices struggle with the extended rather than just EWX. Lol.

The first of two weekends of Austin City Limits Music Festival starts Friday so I hope they are able to nail down what will happen by Wednesday. I'm sure everyone going won't mind the cooler temps but precipitation is another issue. For now looks like most of the weekend stays dry.

[Brent]

18z GFS is not backing down... Friday is even trending cooler. Highs probably in the upper 70s around DFW... but some 60s in E TX, especially in the afternoon hours(the front comes in from the NE as discussed)

Saturday similar, mid/upper 70s. Lows around 60 Saturday morning.
Sunday Mid 60s... continues to look like the coolest day with possibly some light rain/drizzle. Lows in the mid 50s Sunday morning
Monday... mid 70s... lows around 60

[Ntxw]

Houston so far today has a high around 75F!

Latest interpretation of today's Euro weeklies, ridging remains over Alaska, Western Canada, and Central Canada. Active storm track and lower heights below along the southern and central US through the first half of October. Most active weather across the country will be SW US through the southern plains and up the eastern seaboard...sound familiar?

[gpsnowman]

Houston so far today has a high around 75F!

Poor wxman57. Not!!! Let the cool down begin!

[Brent]

Houston so far today has a high around 75F!

Poor wxman57. Not!!! Let the cool down begin!

So that's why he's been all over recon in the tropics forum.

[Brent]

The 0z GFS says summer ends on Thursday. Maybe some low 80s at worst after that...

[Ntxw]

Crisp air...it will feel nice. Those 30s dewpoints, lips getting chappy already. I'm ready for it, time for it to feel like real football. I'm ready to can summer for good...well until it comes back again next year...ugh.

Interesting though this winter will be during a leap year!!! Feb, our climo snowiest month gets an extra day

[CaptinCrunch]

This mornings AFD from NWS FTW, they backing off the cool down from the sound of things.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST THURSDAY.
THERE IS A BIG DIFFERENCE ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THIS SYSTEM.
THE GFS INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND BREAKING DOWN THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE GFS MOS
INDICATES HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH SATURDAY
AND VERY FALL-LIKE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 80 SOUTH SUNDAY.
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN /CMC/ ON THE OTHER HAND INDICATE THAT THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE A STRONGER SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THEN DRIFTS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN THE COLD FRONT COMING NO WHERE CLOSE TO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE REGION WARM AND DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WOULD BE IN THE 80S TO THE MID 90S.

GIVEN THE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND
FORECAST IS LOW. HAVE NOTED THAT THE NEW 00Z GFS MOS FORECAST
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEKEND ARE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS
12Z RUN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS A MODEL BLEND INDICATING
SOME COOLING BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE GFS. HAVE KEPT LOW POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND.

[dhweather]

9/28 12Z



9/29 00Z




As FWD noted, GFS trended warmer, will be interesting to see what 12Z shows today

[gboudx]

While that is warmer it's still a whole lot better than it's been. Either way, looks like we get a break.

[dhweather]

True - we should get a break in temps, but it looks like no precip.

[Ntxw]

The 6Z GFS is closer to climo (yes climo is trending down faster now). So not a major front per that run, just closer to normal. Euro has always been warmer than the GFS, we'll see what 12z says. Many would be happy with Climo though given it's practically October.

[CaptinCrunch]

I'm just so done with this weather pattern. I want mid 70's and upper 50's and I want it yesterday....lol

[Brent]

I'm just so done with this weather pattern. I want mid 70's and upper 50's and I want it yesterday....lol

Seriously... this! It's almost October and it's time to move on.

[Ralph's Weather]

Highs in the 70s will be nice, but I sure wish the rain chances were higher.