ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

[Ntxw]

At 144 euro sends it out to sea while a noreaster gets going from the trof. I think this model has lost it as hammy said. It cannot be trusted with different solutions.

[Alyono]

that so called Nor'easter is IDA

These models need to give it up. Ida is not getting west of this!

[xironman]

There is always the Ukie

[Alyono]

the BS Flag is raised on the EC

This will NOT be a cat 3 in the Bahamas, as the EC is forecasting. That is beyond stupid. I throw out the entire run based upon that. I hate to say it, the MU may be the most reasonable as it is the only run that handles Ida properly

[Hammy]

the BS Flag is raised on the EC

This will NOT be a cat 3 in the Bahamas, as the EC is forecasting. That is beyond stupid. I throw out the entire run based upon that. I hate to say it, the MU may be the most reasonable as it is the only run that handles Ida properly

I think this is yet another example as to why the models this year are basically useless beyond 48 hours. The upgrades messed a lot of things up it seems, and there are plenty of bugs to work out.

[Alyono]

the BS Flag is raised on the EC

This will NOT be a cat 3 in the Bahamas, as the EC is forecasting. That is beyond stupid. I throw out the entire run based upon that. I hate to say it, the MU may be the most reasonable as it is the only run that handles Ida properly

I think this is yet another example as to why the models this year are basically useless beyond 48 hours. The upgrades messed a lot of things up it seems, and there are plenty of bugs to work out.

It's called parameterized convection. In a couple of years, once the EC has explicit convection, things will be much better

[blazess556]

00z EC Ensemble agrees with the 00z op run so far through 60 hrs. Mean is slight stronger and just east of the central Bahamas.

[NDG]

And the Euro throws a nice curved balls, and so does the 06z GFS of Joaquin going out to sea. Some people might have have lost some sleep over nothing, but too early to write on stone yet.

[HurrMark]

It's very different from the EC, still. The EC makes it a powerful hurricane before going out to sea. Here, all of its energy gets sucked into 99L, and a remnant low is left behind that meanders out to sea.

[NDG]

It's very different from the EC, still. The EC makes it a powerful hurricane before going out to sea. Here, all of its energy gets sucked into 99L, and a remnant low is left behind that meanders out to sea.

I don't see that 99L has anything to do with it other than its remnants moisture, clearly the Euro and 06z show a huge frontal storm forming in the mid Atlantic states because of a big powerful trough coming down the eastern US.

[NDG]

The more I look at the models it is a very complicated pattern setting up in a couple of days, it either goes out to sea or gets slammed into the NE US in some form/shape. I will sit back on this one

[TheProfessor]

At 144 euro sends it out to sea while a noreaster gets going from the trof. I think this model has lost it as hammy said. It cannot be trusted with different solutions.

The 6z GFS now sends it out to see too and even the GFDL has a Northeast turn before moving Northwest again and slamming the storm as a cat 3 into New Jersey/ New York City. We'll have to see what the models continue to show today.

[CrazyC83]

Is there a G-IV mission planned? That would go a long way towards solving this riddle.

[ronjon]

Why the big difference between the dynamical models and globals? What a forecasters nightmare.

[Alyono]

the models are showing this getting so far south and east that it gets shoved to the east. Of course, any farther S and W brings Florida into play...

[AutoPenalti]

Uh, this might be a problem if it gets anymore west right now.

[Weatherwatcher98]

the models are showing this getting so far south and east that it gets shoved to the east. Of course, any farther S and W brings Florida into play...

Looks way south and west of the Forecast plots or is that because of shear??? Thanks

[tolakram]

Follow the low level circulation, the mid level is SE of the center. I'm posting an image in the discussion forum ... looks to be on the updated track, but the track keeps changing.

[Alyono]

the deterministic models are not following the ensembles. Too much Ida interaction in the deterministic

[Vinnland]

the deterministic models are not following the ensembles. Too much Ida interaction in the deterministic

So does that mean that Florida may be in play?