Texas Fall-2015

[Brent]

Just looking at the weather apps... TWC had 73 on Sunday yesterday now it has 83. 84 on Saturday. This is not some fantasy land forecast and there's a huge difference!

Weatherbug for DFW has 81 Saturday and 79 Sunday.

Just how warm is the Euro? Average or where we've been all month?

12z GFS still looks like mid 70s on Saturday and Sunday.

12z CMC agrees with the GFS... mid 70s Friday-Sunday and even Monday when the GFS is warmer. Has mid 50s all three mornings. Also has a massive cold front around day 8-9 but we won't go there yet.

The CMC is MUCH cooler than the 0z which had mid 80s this weekend

[TheProfessor]

Looks like I might get a few inches of rain from this potential tropical system, we're supposed to get a quarter of an inch today from a different system. And if the storm does a western shift and targets the Carolinas and Virginia then there could be some flooding in Ohio. Most models have the 6-10 in rains to the east in Pennsylvania right now.

[TarrantWx]

Just looking at the weather apps... TWC had 73 on Sunday yesterday now it has 83. 84 on Saturday. This is not some fantasy land forecast and there's a huge difference!

Weatherbug for DFW has 81 Saturday and 79 Sunday.

Just how warm is the Euro? Average or where we've been all month?

12z GFS still looks like mid 70s on Saturday and Sunday.

12z CMC agrees with the GFS... mid 70s Friday-Sunday and even Monday when the GFS is warmer. Has mid 50s all three mornings. Also has a massive cold front around day 8-9 but we won't go there yet.

The CMC is MUCH cooler than the 0z which had mid 80s this weekend

Wow! The CPC builds in much stronger Alaskan/NW Canada ridging than the other models and locks it in for the rest of the run. Certainly would be a great pattern for us but seems unlikely given a lack of supporting model runs. Certainly something to watch for though.

[Ntxw]

Given the nature, I would focus per say within the 5 day range first. Consensus is quite good actually...near 90 the next two days then cool off Friday, Sat, and Sun closer to climo (low 80s. low-mid 60s mornings). A little warm up before another step down early next week, each front progressively stronger than the previous as heights builds over NW NA. Precipitation forecasts is of low skill at this time, I would not expect much until closer range.

Nothing screams out of the ordinary from climo yet. The only unusual thing I'm seeing is that storms and 5h vorticity is quite unusually south for the time of year, systems are tracking west to east on the southern route vs the usual panhandle hookers into the midwest.

[CaptinCrunch]

AFD NWS FORT WORTH 3:22pm

THE MAIN QUESTION WITH THE WEEKEND FORECAST HAS BEEN WHICH
EXTENDED MODEL TO BELIEVE WITH REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF A PAIR
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL TROUGH WILL ACT TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE THE
SECOND WOULD POTENTIALLY USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BEHIND A SECOND STRONGER FRONT. PREVIOUSLY...THE GFS WAS
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THESE TROUGHS WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAD
A LESS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION.

THE LATEST GFS RUN /12Z/ HAS COME MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN WHICH DEVELOP A DEEPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. WITH EXTENDED GUIDANCE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE
TOWARD A SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND...IT APPEARS THOSE ROOTING FOR
THE GFS SOLUTION THE PAST FEW DAYS THAT FEATURED A STRONGER
WEEKEND COLD FRONT AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES COULD BE DISAPPOINTED.
A DPROG/DT ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE GFS HAS GRADUALLY SHIFTED
THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVES A BIT FURTHER NORTH.

AS FAR AS WHAT THIS MEANS FOR NORTH TEXAS...THE ECMWF SOLUTION
WOULD NOT ALLOW THE STRONGER COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE THE RED
RIVER...AND WILL KEEP TEXAS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH WARM AND DRY
WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GFS SOLUTION STILL SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGER FRONT WILL MAKE IT
AS FAR AS NORTHERN TEXAS...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

THESE DIFFERENCES WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND...BY AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES...WITH GFS HIGH
TEMPERATURES BEING IN THE UPPER 70S AND THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
SUPPORTING UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. WE SHOULD GET A MUCH
CLEARER PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGHS MAKE LANDFALL AND ARE SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.
UNTIL THEN...CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW IN THE FORECAST
BEYOND FRIDAY.

REGARDLESS OF THE WEEKEND FORECAST...IT APPEARS A SIGNIFICANT
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEK. BROAD
TROUGHING ACROSS THE CONUS WILL SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

[aggiecutter]

An early taste of fall for the Texarkana area. BTW, big rains next Wednesday:

Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 55. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Friday Sunny, with a high near 79.
Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 55.
Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.
Saturday Night A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.
Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 78.
Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose's blog today. Love the last sentence!

Today's computer-forecast data indicates the weather pattern across North America will finally begin to change next week. A couple of large troughs of low pressure in the upper atmosphere are forecast to follow each other out of the Pacific, track inland along the Pacific Northwest and then move east across the Plains states. The first trough is forecast to push inland across the west late this week with the second trough pushing inland early next week. Trough number one is forecast to push a cold front south across the Plains states this weekend, with the front pulling up stationary along the Red River. Trough number two is forecast to push a second cold front south across the Plains and into Texas the middle of next week. An area of rain showers is forecast to develop along the cold front when it moves south across Texas. As of now, rain amounts are not expected to be very heavy.

Dry and slightly cooler air is expected to follow the cold front next Thursday and Friday with high temperatures in the mid 80s and lows in the low 60s. Forecast data calls for the summertime ridge of high pressure over Texas to weaken next week. In fact, with the Jet Stream pattern becoming more active, we may not see much more of the ridge across Texas after next week. Good riddance until next summer!

Bob

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[Brent]

Bob Rose's blog today. Love the last sentence!

Today's computer-forecast data indicates the weather pattern across North America will finally begin to change next week. A couple of large troughs of low pressure in the upper atmosphere are forecast to follow each other out of the Pacific, track inland along the Pacific Northwest and then move east across the Plains states. The first trough is forecast to push inland across the west late this week with the second trough pushing inland early next week. Trough number one is forecast to push a cold front south across the Plains states this weekend, with the front pulling up stationary along the Red River. Trough number two is forecast to push a second cold front south across the Plains and into Texas the middle of next week. An area of rain showers is forecast to develop along the cold front when it moves south across Texas. As of now, rain amounts are not expected to be very heavy.

Dry and slightly cooler air is expected to follow the cold front next Thursday and Friday with high temperatures in the mid 80s and lows in the low 60s. Forecast data calls for the summertime ridge of high pressure over Texas to weaken next week. In fact, with the Jet Stream pattern becoming more active, we may not see much more of the ridge across Texas after next week. Good riddance until next summer!

Bob

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[Brent]

Fall is coming Looks like the GFS was right all along... waiting for the AFD

Friday
Sunny, with a high near 79. North wind 5 to 10 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 54. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. East northeast wind around 5 mph.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. Northeast wind around 5 mph.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 59.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
331 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TODAY...IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
WARM. AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S
AGAIN TONIGHT.

WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF
CHIHUAHUA AND SONORA...WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...
WARM ADVECTION AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE...MAY RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN FALLING FROM MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THUS HAVE ADDED A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING
AND ADDED 10 PERCENT POPS AND THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES DOWN TO THE
I-20 CORRIDOR FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...SO HAVE KEPT LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
DECREASE. AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BREAK DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE DOWN INTO TEXAS SATURDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
COOL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS REMAINING MORE
AGGRESSIVE/COOLER.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK ONCE AGAIN DIVERGE. THE GFS INDICATES AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
RAIN BY MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES
INTO THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION SHOWS A MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

58

[Tireman4]

HGX AFD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
446 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS
FORECAST TO EXIT EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. THROUGH THE DAY
...SOUTHWESTERN RIDGING EXPANDING INTO WESTERN TEXAS. THIS WILL
PLACE A NORTHWEST TO NORTH MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OVER
EASTERN TEXAS...MIDWESTERN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO PUSH A WEAK/DRY
COLD FRONT THROUGH TOMORROW. GREAT POST-FRONTAL WEATHER WILL BE
ON TAP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH TODAY
BEING THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...AVERAGE LOWER 90S INLAND TO UPPER
80S ALONG THE SHORELINE...WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND. 5H RIDGING
WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY WITH A DRY AIR MASS
(ORIGINATING FROM THE GREAT LAKE REGION) DESCENDING INTO EASTERN
TEXAS FRIDAY. SUB 0.5 INCH PWATS WITH LOWERING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
TO 14-15C WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COMFORTABLE START TO OCTOBER...FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE AVERAGE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLEST MORNING WILL BE ON SATURDAY UNDER
CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM CONDITIONS...THE MAJORITY OF INTERIOR
READINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S/COASTAL MID 60S. A LIGHT OFFSHORE
BREEZE AND CLEAR SKIES...WILL AFFORD WONDERFUL WEEKEND DAYS MAINLY
SPENT IN THE 60S AND 70S...WARMTH ONLY PUSHING THERMOMETERS INTO
THE LOW 80S WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES PLUMMETING INTO THE 20-30
PERCENTILE. THE LONG RANGE HAS REGIONAL RIDGING BREAKING DOWN TO
BEGIN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF OCTOBER. THE EARLY WEEK BIG NEWS MAY
BE ON HOW TC JOAQUIN IS IMPACTING THE EAST COAST AS OUR NEXT RAIN
MAKER WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE FORM OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS
TROUGH WILL REACH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY MID WEEK...SWINGING
WINDS ONSHORE AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS TUESDAY. AS THE
TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY...
(SLIGHT) PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MAINLY SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. 31

&&
Today Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. North wind 5 to 10 mph.
Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 69. Northeast wind around 5 mph.
Thursday Sunny, with a high near 88. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 61. Northeast wind around 5 mph.
Friday Sunny, with a high near 82. North wind 5 to 10 mph.
Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 58.
Saturday Sunny, with a high near 80.
Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 60.
Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.
Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 63.
Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.
Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.
Tuesday A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 85.

[weatherdude1108]

The donut hole/dome is actually south of Austin and San Antonio on this run.

[dhweather]

0Z GFS temps cooling down and no rain.

[Ralph's Weather]

0Z GFS temps cooling down and no rain.

Those DPs could lead to some cool nights if we have clearing. We may see some 40s for lows in a few spots. Hopefully we get some rain next week.

[TheProfessor]

A High of 57 with a 70% chance of rain on Saturday for me. The rain could be quite Heavy depending on where Joaquin is. I'm going to need my jacket when I do sprints on Saturday.

[Tireman4]

A Hi of 57 with a 70% chance of rain on Saturday for me. The rain could be quite Heavy depending on where Joaquin is. I'm going to need my jacket when I do sprints on Saturday.

Ehh?

[CaptinCrunch]

A High of 57 with a 70% chance of rain on Saturday for me. The rain could be quite Heavy depending on where Joaquin is. I'm going to need my jacket when I do sprints on Saturday.

I'll trade forecast with you, you can have my H85 L69 and sunny, and I'll be happy to take your H57 with 70% chance of rain.

[weatherdude1108]

A High of 57 with a 70% chance of rain on Saturday for me. The rain could be quite Heavy depending on where Joaquin is. I'm going to need my jacket when I do sprints on Saturday.

I'll trade forecast with you, you can have my H85 L69 and sunny, and I'll be happy to take your H57 with 70% chance of rain.

Me too!

[weatherdude1108]

Now the donut hole is over Midland/Odessa on the GFS 12Z. Flip flop flip flop....

[TheProfessor]

A High of 57 with a 70% chance of rain on Saturday for me. The rain could be quite Heavy depending on where Joaquin is. I'm going to need my jacket when I do sprints on Saturday.

I'll trade forecast with you, you can have my H85 L69 and sunny, and I'll be happy to take your H57 with 70% chance of rain.

Me too!

I'm fine with the temperature, but running in rain and windy conditions is no fun, hopefully it doesn't start till after I run.

[weatherdude1108]

Liked the last paragraph of the EWX discussion this afternoon.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 302029
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
329 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
A WEAK AND POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND MEXICO BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS...COUPLED WITH DRIER MIDLEVEL FLOW EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY AND
MORE STABLE AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION WILL PREVENT ANY
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE SHORT TERM AND KEEP SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR.
LOW TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S TONIGHT AND DECREASE
EVEN FURTHER INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S JUST BELOW CLIMATE NORMALS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HILL
COUNTRY TO MID 90S IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE OUT OF THE N/NE BELOW 10-15 KTS EXCEPT IN THE RIO GRADNE
PLAINS WHERE THEY WILL HAVE MORE OF A E/SE COMPONENT.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A SECONDARY SURGE OF RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW MOVES
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY
DIGS S/SE FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST US GULF COAST. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL CUTOFF INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER ALABAMA FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN IN THE ATLANIC...MAINTAINING
NORTHERLY TROPOSPHERIC FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. SURFACE
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO E/SE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING JUST PAST THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TO GIVE US OUR
NEXT APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES.

ALTHOUGH THE MEDIAN DATE OF OUR FIRST STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
TYPICALLY AROUND SEPTEMBER 23...OCTOBER 7-8 WOULD NOT BE TOO FAR
BEHIND SCHEDULE FOR EL NINO YEARS WHICH FAVORS A SLIGHTLY DELAYED
EARLY OCTOBER FIRST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THE PERSISTENT SUMMERTIME RIDGING WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY END
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AFTER A FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS BACK NEAR
90 DEGREES AS WE ENTER A MORE PROGRESSIVE FALL WEATHER PATTERN
WITH SEMI-REGULAR FRONTAL PASSAGES.