ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Shear seems to be relaxing a little.

live loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-71&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray

[gatorcane]

Tough position for NHC here. I can see they don't want to commit to a recurve or a East coast of U.S. hit, but the clock is ticking and the timeframe is coming in. Some models show a U.S. hit in just 4 days now. They need to commit soon you would think so people can prepare if necessary. The 12Z ECMWF is going to be key to what they do at 5pmEST with the track IMHO.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 291707
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015
A. 29/16:34:50Z
B. 25 deg 58 min N
070 deg 40 min W
C. 850 mb 1394 m
D. 30 kt
E. 316 deg 64 nm
F. 078 deg 39 kt
G. 317 deg 73 nm
H. 994 mb
I. 19 C / 1671 m
J. 21 C / 1669 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0211A JOAQUIN OB 06
MAX FL WIND 39 KT 317 / 73 NM 16:14:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 55 KT 133 / 54 NM 16:52:10Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 195 / 11 KT
Rain at the center fix location. Heavy rain outbound, some SFMR rain-contaminated surface winds
Dropsonde confirmed at least 47 kts surface wind in the SE quadrant outbound prior to max FL wind
;

[CrazyC83]

Based on early Recon data, I would probably go with a 45 kt intensity, although that may be conservative. The dropsonde might be a case for 50 kt.

[gatorcane]

Starting to move more quickly to the west it looks like as ridging is building in:

[HurrMark]

Shear seems to be relaxing a little.

live loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-71&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray

Yeah, center appears to be on top of that burst of convection...

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291724
AF300 0211A JOAQUIN HDOB 26 20150929
171430 2452N 06914W 8272 01728 0099 +155 +121 195035 035 028 001 03
171500 2454N 06914W 8272 01728 0100 +153 +122 193035 035 027 002 03
171530 2457N 06914W 8272 01728 0098 +154 +121 188035 036 025 003 03
171600 2459N 06914W 8273 01724 0096 +155 +120 186035 036 029 002 00
171630 2501N 06914W 8275 01720 0095 +156 +120 185033 034 028 003 03
171700 2503N 06914W 8266 01734 0095 +155 +115 184035 036 030 002 03
171730 2505N 06914W 8274 01721 0096 +154 +116 185036 036 030 002 00
171800 2507N 06914W 8273 01721 0098 +150 +113 187036 037 031 002 03
171830 2509N 06914W 8272 01721 0098 +150 +110 189035 037 030 003 03
171900 2511N 06914W 8269 01726 0096 +152 +110 191035 037 031 001 00
171930 2514N 06914W 8274 01721 0096 +150 +114 183038 038 028 002 03
172000 2516N 06914W 8273 01721 0095 +152 +118 182038 039 031 001 03
172030 2518N 06914W 8272 01723 0096 +150 +119 180039 040 031 002 03
172100 2520N 06914W 8274 01722 0095 +150 +119 180038 038 032 001 00
172130 2522N 06914W 8272 01723 0096 +150 +112 180038 039 031 003 00
172200 2524N 06914W 8273 01720 0098 +146 +112 181037 039 032 003 03
172230 2527N 06914W 8274 01718 0097 +145 +111 181036 037 033 002 03
172300 2529N 06914W 8274 01718 0097 +146 +115 184036 037 034 002 00
172330 2531N 06914W 8268 01723 0094 +151 +116 188037 038 033 003 03
172400 2533N 06915W 8273 01721 0093 +151 +119 184038 040 032 003 03
$$
;

[drezee]

Center got sucked in...recon places it SSE of the 11am fix for the NHC

[LarryWx]

Center got sucked in...recon places it SSE of the 11am fix for the NHC

2nd straight day of this kind of thing. Now at 26.0 N.

[tatertawt24]

Starting to move more quickly to the west it looks like as ridging is building in:

http://i.imgur.com/knxgwUo.gif

Wait, is that the center being exposed again in those last few frames?

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291733
AF300 0211A JOAQUIN HDOB 27 20150929
172430 2535N 06915W 8265 01724 0094 +149 +122 188040 041 031 002 00
172500 2537N 06915W 8283 01705 0092 +150 +111 185039 040 030 002 03
172530 2539N 06915W 8274 01714 0094 +147 +106 185039 039 029 002 03
172600 2541N 06915W 8274 01714 0092 +147 +107 184040 040 031 002 03
172630 2543N 06915W 8270 01718 0092 +146 +112 181042 042 033 003 03
172700 2543N 06915W 8270 01718 0091 +148 +113 179041 042 032 003 00
172730 2547N 06915W 8275 01712 0099 +134 +119 182043 044 032 005 03
172800 2549N 06915W 8264 01726 0095 +139 +126 179044 046 034 005 00
172830 2551N 06915W 8276 01711 0093 +140 +136 173043 045 033 004 03
172900 2553N 06915W 8281 01705 0087 +148 +137 174040 042 033 002 03
172930 2555N 06915W 8269 01721 0089 +146 +132 173040 041 031 003 03
173000 2557N 06915W 8272 01715 0088 +146 +128 176042 043 029 001 03
173030 2600N 06915W 8275 01712 0089 +147 +120 173043 044 033 001 03
173100 2602N 06915W 8268 01718 0088 +148 +113 170045 046 033 001 03
173130 2604N 06915W 8275 01709 0089 +148 +111 166047 047 030 002 00
173200 2606N 06915W 8275 01712 0088 +147 +112 167047 048 028 002 03
173230 2608N 06915W 8270 01716 0090 +144 +118 168047 048 031 001 03
173300 2610N 06915W 8276 01709 0092 +143 +123 166045 045 031 001 03
173330 2612N 06915W 8257 01734 0094 +141 +117 164044 045 028 001 03
173400 2614N 06915W 8280 01711 0096 +147 +111 160041 044 027 001 00
$$
;

[LarryWx]

Starting to move more quickly to the west it looks like as ridging is building in:

http://i.imgur.com/knxgwUo.gif

Wait, is that the center being exposed again in those last few frames?

Recon has center 26.0N, 70.7W. So, that puts it under NW corner of convection.

[tatertawt24]

I thought this area right here looked like a naked center. I guess that's just an illusion?

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291743
AF300 0211A JOAQUIN HDOB 28 20150929
173430 2616N 06915W 8268 01723 0095 +148 +113 158041 042 029 002 00
173500 2618N 06916W 8274 01716 0092 +150 +116 159042 042 030 001 03
173530 2620N 06916W 8272 01719 0092 +150 +115 162043 044 030 001 00
173600 2623N 06916W 8275 01717 0092 +150 +112 163042 042 031 001 03
173630 2625N 06916W 8277 01715 0092 +150 +110 162042 043 030 002 03
173700 2627N 06916W 8271 01719 0094 +150 +107 162044 045 028 001 03
173730 2629N 06916W 8272 01718 0096 +148 +115 161045 045 027 002 03
173800 2631N 06916W 8273 01723 0096 +150 +111 160044 045 026 002 03
173830 2634N 06916W 8267 01727 0095 +150 +113 162044 044 027 002 00
173900 2636N 06916W 8274 01722 0097 +150 +115 159044 045 028 001 00
173930 2638N 06916W 8274 01720 0096 +150 +119 158042 043 029 000 00
174000 2640N 06916W 8272 01723 0099 +148 +120 158043 044 023 002 03
174030 2642N 06916W 8274 01720 0100 +143 +123 159044 046 026 003 03
174100 2645N 06916W 8278 01716 0100 +141 +129 154044 045 027 003 03
174130 2647N 06916W 8265 01730 0096 +151 +125 153044 046 027 002 03
174200 2649N 06916W 8275 01719 0093 +155 +123 147045 046 027 001 03
174230 2651N 06916W 8277 01719 0088 +163 +114 146043 045 023 002 03
174300 2653N 06916W 8268 01727 0095 +153 +113 155046 046 023 001 03
174330 2655N 06916W 8272 01724 0097 +152 +116 154044 046 025 001 03
174400 2658N 06916W 8274 01721 0093 +156 +125 147040 043 027 002 03
$$
;

[invest man]

Did I read recon message correct pressure at 994mb

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291754
AF300 0211A JOAQUIN HDOB 29 20150929
174430 2700N 06916W 8295 01698 0094 +150 +139 146042 043 022 004 00
174500 2702N 06917W 8265 01734 0095 +155 +120 145041 042 022 000 00
174530 2704N 06917W 8272 01725 0099 +153 +104 144040 040 024 002 00
174600 2706N 06917W 8272 01726 0100 +152 +104 144040 041 024 001 03
174630 2708N 06917W 8271 01730 0103 +151 +100 143040 041 024 001 03
174700 2710N 06918W 8272 01730 0106 +153 +095 138037 039 /// /// 03
174730 2709N 06920W 8272 01728 0100 +155 +101 139036 036 017 002 00
174800 2708N 06921W 8273 01723 0096 +155 +112 140035 036 024 001 03
174830 2707N 06923W 8275 01722 0095 +155 +108 143035 036 023 001 00
174900 2705N 06924W 8267 01730 0095 +153 +123 142036 038 025 001 03
174930 2704N 06926W 8272 01721 0092 +158 +105 143038 039 025 002 00
175000 2703N 06927W 8273 01718 0091 +157 +106 145037 038 023 002 03
175030 2702N 06928W 8271 01723 0090 +156 +105 147036 037 023 001 00
175100 2700N 06930W 8277 01714 0089 +156 +108 146037 037 023 001 03
175130 2659N 06931W 8272 01720 0089 +155 +111 148038 038 025 001 00
175200 2658N 06933W 8275 01712 0089 +151 +110 149038 039 026 001 03
175230 2657N 06934W 8269 01720 0092 +148 +118 146038 039 027 001 00
175300 2655N 06935W 8273 01716 0090 +148 +121 145040 040 027 001 00
175330 2654N 06937W 8277 01711 0086 +153 +117 147040 040 026 001 03
175400 2653N 06938W 8274 01711 0085 +152 +115 147039 040 027 002 03
$$
;

[tatertawt24]

Did I read recon message correct pressure at 994mb

The lowest I'm seeing is 1008?

[xironman]

Did I read recon message correct pressure at 994mb

A dropsonde 30 miles away has it close to a 1000, so not crazy.

Edit:

I stand corrected, there was a dropsonde in vort and it was 994

[Extratropical94]

Did I read recon message correct pressure at 994mb

Yep, the dropsonde confirmed 994mb as the current central pressure (11 knots surface wind so pretty close to the actual center). The plane is currently approaching the center from the NE and should pass through in about 20 to 25 minutes. We should get another dropsonde with that pass to see if the pressure is fluctuating or dropping. Also the plane is about to sample the NE quadrant which might have some interesting wind readings as well.

[Hurricane_Apu]

As far as I can tell, all of this is still on the table:

1. Steady NNE track with CONUS miss but possible Canada landfall (NWS seems to be biting on this for the moment)
2. NNE track with late turn W into NJ/NYC (Sandy track)
3. NNE to NE track with much later NW turn into New England or Canada
4. NNW into NC/VA
5. Storm wanders around for days and days N of Bahamas before heading NE out to sea
6. Due W into Bahamas; turn on a dime, nearly due E out to sea (thanks, Euro )

The multi-model charts literally look like a giant spider right now. I can't remember the last time there's been this degree of uncertainty for an important storm, and that may continue up to 48 or 24 hours before landfall or closest approach.

I can't imagine how they will handle evacuations if they feel those are warranted...