ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

At current intensity its ahead of what even the HWRF was showing at this time.

[Kingarabian]

VDM now indicating an eyewall is forming?

Edit: Beat me to the punch.

Maybe the Euro is right after all? Hmmm...

Its intensifying rate at this point seems to make the Euro forecast conservative.

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[tatertawt24]

VDM now indicating an eyewall is forming?

Edit: Beat me to the punch.

Maybe the Euro is right after all? Hmmm...

Its intensifying rate at this point seems to make the Euro forecast conservative.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This might mean it will peak and subsequently weaken sooner, though.

[Kingarabian]

But would a deeper Joaquin indicate a less SW movement, and instead, feel the trough sooner?

[terstorm1012]

Well this escalated quickly. Was not expecting this at all.

Paying a bit more attention now!

[cycloneye]

Greg Postel ‏@GregPostel · 5m5 minutes ago
Air Force recon recently measured ~70 mph sfc wind (via uncorrected SFMR) in #Joaquin, ~25 mi NE of flight lvl center

[tolakram]

live 30 frame loop, zoomed out, speed up for full effect.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-71&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray

[gatorcane]

Still moving noticeably west. I don't see the trough amplifying over the SE United States yet. Flow looks pretty zonal over the Northern United States:

[tolakram]

latest graphic

[Hammy]

One thing is certain, today is the first time there has been any northward movement of the high clouds away from the convection.

[EquusStorm]

Wow. We may get in a last minute September hurricane after all. 'Cept it'll be named Joaquin instead of Ida.

Last time we reached a J on this name list was 2003... wiiiith Hurricane Juan. Hopefully this one won't be nearly as damaging.

[Weatherwatcher98]

One thing is certain, today is the first time there has been any northward movement of the high clouds away from the convection.

I wonder if the remains of 99l albeit weak are going to have a direct impact on the track interesting......

[Hammy]

5pm discussion will be quite interesting with the unexpected burst in intensity, as well as continued (and even shorter-term) rapid intensification runs shown by Euro.

[emeraldislenc]

Yes will be interesting for sure!

[Aric Dunn]

This was from 3 hours ago just before the circ tucked back under the convection. so from a exposed circ to a partial banding in 3 hours is impressive given the shear.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Definitely One to watch!!!!

[xironman]

Looks like something you would see at 2 am as opposed to 4 pm

[Weatherwatcher98]

I know scary. The diurnal should be interesting

[Aric Dunn]

Interesting to note. if it does begin to move more wsw or Sw over the next 24 hours. the component of shear will lesson slightly giving it chance to intensify more before the shear actually weakens.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Interesting to note. if it does begin to move more wsw or Sw over the next 24 hours. the component of shear will lesson slightly giving it chance to intensify more before the shear actually weakens.

Which would move it north/poleward quicker right?