ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
NHC's track is non-commital. Just slow it down and don't indicate any landfall until confidence increases, I'm sure. Not necessarily a bad idea for the general public. We can't afford to do that for our clients, however. Agree with the 80kts (or more) intensity.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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Quite a busy day tomorrow.
Code: Select all
1. TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 73 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 30/1130Z A. 01/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0311A JOAQUIN B. NOAA9 0411A JOAQUIN
C. 30/0715Z C. 30/1730Z
D. 26.3N 72.4W D. NA
E. 30/1100Z TO 30/1400Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000FT
FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 74 FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 49
A. 30/2330Z A. 01/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0511A JOAQUIN B. NOAA9 0611A JOAQUIN
C. 30/1930Z C. 01/0530Z
D. 26.3N 73.1W D. NA
E. 30/2300Z TO 01/0200Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000FT
FLIGHT FIVE -- TEAL 75
A. 01/1130Z
B. AFXXX 0711A JOAQUIN
C. 01/0730Z
D. 26.1N 73.7W
E. 01/1100Z TO 01/1400Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 6-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING AT 01/2330Z. G-IV MISSIONS DEPARTING AT 01/1730Z
AND 02/0530Z.
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
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Boomer Sooner!
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:hurricanedude wrote:wxman57 mid atlantic landfall as in nc va nj? which is most likely
Virginia Beach (not kidding). Fortunately, for you, often the safest place to be is near the 5-day track point.
That would be an unmitigated disaster, good thing it won't happen.
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Re:
That is one hell of an angled turndrezee wrote:that was a punt of a track...yes the super ensemble will say that...it could be inland in 5 days

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Re:
drezee wrote:that was a punt of a track...yes the super ensemble will say that...it could be inland in 5 days
Definite punt, as wxman also said. The spread is so far from the ensembles to the operational global models it pays to wait. I'm sure the spread will narrow way down tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
rickybobby wrote:Wesh 2 said it should not impact Florida. They also said shear is affecting it right now.
this is not a Florida system in any scenario..deflector shield is locked and loaded for the next few weeks, at least
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
That's likely the case and probably the only threat to Florida for the rest of the season would come from the Caribbean.jlauderdal wrote:rickybobby wrote:Wesh 2 said it should not impact Florida. They also said shear is affecting it right now.
this is not a Florida system in any scenario..deflector shield is locked and loaded for the next few weeks, at least
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Re:
ozonepete wrote:drezee wrote:that was a punt of a track...yes the super ensemble will say that...it could be inland in 5 days
Definite punt, as wxman also said. The spread is so far from the ensembles to the operational global models it pays to wait. I'm sure the spread will narrow way down tomorrow.
We're closing in on your Wednesday time frame as far as far as the intensity goes and it looks like mine has completely gone out the window--I even lost a bit of money on it if it keeps strengthening.

The shorter-term Euro is starting to look a bit more realistic, and while I don't see a major coming out of this it could make a run at Cat 2 given NHC intenstiy forecast.
Interestingly a few of the mesoscale models (NAM and WRF-ARW) take this to Cat 4 within 48 hours.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Aren't those models less accurate though Hammy??
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At what point does the Norfolk Naval Base send ships out to sea to ride out a potential storm? Does anyone know how much lead time something like that would need to execute?
I'm asking because if anyone in the navy would need to get property ready before they go out to sea...now might be the time...better over prepare than under.
I'm asking because if anyone in the navy would need to get property ready before they go out to sea...now might be the time...better over prepare than under.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Latest microwave as the alst hour or so..
clearly still not stacked but much better than it has been.

clearly still not stacked but much better than it has been.

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
jlauderdal wrote:rickybobby wrote:Wesh 2 said it should not impact Florida. They also said shear is affecting it right now.
this is not a Florida system in any scenario..deflector shield is locked and loaded for the next few weeks, at least
Well, "any scenario" based on guidance at hand anyway. I think everything is up for reassessment after the 0Z runs. Not sure why the 18Z NAM seems to have gotten stuck at the 48 hr. forecast?? Lets just say that i've got greater confidence that the Dolphins will go undefeated for the rest of the year, than the handle models or anyone seems to have on the near to mid term evolution of steering dynamics currently in place.
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Re: Re:
Hammy wrote:ozonepete wrote:drezee wrote:that was a punt of a track...yes the super ensemble will say that...it could be inland in 5 days
Definite punt, as wxman also said. The spread is so far from the ensembles to the operational global models it pays to wait. I'm sure the spread will narrow way down tomorrow.
We're closing in on your Wednesday time frame as far as far as the intensity goes and it looks like mine has completely gone out the window--I even lost a bit of money on it if it keeps strengthening.![]()
The shorter-term Euro is starting to look a bit more realistic, and while I don't see a major coming out of this it could make a run at Cat 2 given NHC intenstiy forecast.
Interestingly a few of the mesoscale models (NAM and WRF-ARW) take this to Cat 4 within 48 hours.
Good observations. Really these are some of the most wacko forecasts I have ever seen out of the euro and GFS, especially the Euro - just all over the map and doing 360s from one run to the next. In part it follows my theory that the models have gotten so excellent on track but with one exception: they can't handle some stalled systems very well. And clearly they still don't handle shear very well. This is a case where both of those hardest to handle cases came together.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Weatherwatcher98 wrote:Aren't those models less accurate though Hammy??
NAM is iffy--it got Claudette's formation right (the only one to do so days out), was the most accurate intensity-wise with Ana/Bill as well, but spun up a few storms that never formed; this is the first stronger storm to test it's forecast strength though.
WRF mesoscale models are notable for agreeing with Euro, but I never checked them when there was an active system out there so I have no idea of their accuracy on that.
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- weathernerdguy
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Does this storm even know if there is a el nino? 

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Thanks Hammy
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