ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ozonepete]

It also looks like the track is returning to west and possibly wnw now, albeit still very slow. This change back to wnw is indicated by the current steering charts so it shouldn't be surprising. And that will speed up the turn to the northwest and once again put the coast from Hatteras to New England back in play.

[chaser1]

[/quote]Good observations. Really these are some of the most wacko forecasts I have ever seen out of the euro and GFS, especially the Euro - just all over the map and doing 360s from one run to the next. In part it follows my theory that the models have gotten so excellent on track but with one exception: they can't handle some stalled systems very well. And clearly they still don't handle shear very well. This is a case where both of those hardest to handle cases came together.[/quote]

Furthermore, GFS has not forecasted how deep Joaquin would become as the EURO has. This too only further adds to the subtle impact a more intense storm (or hurricane) may impart providing present capacity for the models to forecast this year. We joke about not worrying about being in the 5 day cone (and I agree), however perhaps those NOT in that cone might begin to take a bit more heed.

[tropicwatch]

I sure wouldn't want to be in the Bahama's with an intensifying system crawling towards me. What a mess.

[ozonepete]

Good observations. Really these are some of the most wacko forecasts I have ever seen out of the euro and GFS, especially the Euro - just all over the map and doing 360s from one run to the next. In part it follows my theory that the models have gotten so excellent on track but with one exception: they can't handle some stalled systems very well. And clearly they still don't handle shear very well. This is a case where both of those hardest to handle cases came together.[/quote]

Furthermore, GFS has not forecasted how deep Joaquin would become as the EURO has. This too only further adds to the subtle impact a more intense storm (or hurricane) may impart providing present capacity for the models to forecast this year. We joke about not worrying about being in the 5 day cone (and I agree), however perhaps those NOT in that cone might begin to take a bit more heed.[/quote]

But remember that the Euro super intensity has not verified yet.

[ozonepete]

Don't think it's going wsw at all anymore. West or wnw now.

[boca]

I have to think hopefully Florida doesnt have to worry about this one and maybe it will stay offshore the east coast.

[Ntxw]

Does this storm even know if there is a el nino?

It would be a high latitude system and managed to steer slowly into an area that has seen less shear than other regions, off the US SE coast. An area we thought Erika would drive into but didn't.

[Aric Dunn]

Don't think it's going wsw at all anymore. West or wnw now.

West most likely. though that convection continues to tug on the circ pulling it back from west to wsw and sometimes sw. average out the motion would still likely be wsw.

[gatorcane]

the 18Z GFS is getting this down to 941MB by hour 90 and looks like it may show a U.S. hit...at hour 102 now.

[Aric Dunn]

the 18Z GFS is getting this down to 941MB by hour 90 and looks like it may show a U.S. hit...at hour 102 now.

which for the GFS always being conservative on intensity is interesting. Its also is more in line with the euro through 48 hours bringing it nearly on top of the bahamas

[ScottNAtlanta]

HWRF has it peaking at 926 right before landfall in VA Beach.

[pgoss11]

Terrifying scenario if that verifies.

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF has it peaking at 926 right before landfall in VA Beach.

looking at the models and upper regime this thing will be getting vented big time .. this of course it stays right in that sweet spot..

[emeraldislenc]

What are the odds of a us hit?

[Aric Dunn]

What are the odds of a us hit?

this point to early to tell. but things are pointing that way right now. will no a lot more once this stalls and begins to turn in about 48 hours.

[Alyono]

What are the odds of a us hit?

decent

[Aric Dunn]

Think its safe to say that the fact the convection continues to build around to the NE and probably soon to be North side that we are likely to have a hurricane tonight if this continues.. shear is quickly dropping.

[Aric Dunn]

Newest microwave as of an hour ago.. definitely starting to wrap around nicely looks a little more stacked but not quite all the way.

[TheStormExpert]

Tonight's 11pm advisory will be really interesting!

[ScottNAtlanta]

Tonight's 11pm advisory will be really interesting!

The next 4 or 5 advisories will be interesting!