ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[johngaltfla]

I'm having a hard time finding any hurricane that hit the mid Atlantic from the west after moving northeast like some of the models are showing. Anyone know of any?

I think we'll have a better picture with the later model runs tomorrow. Within 24 hours, we probably will have a nice round hurricane with a better idea of where it is headed.

[CrazyC83]

Very interesting steering maps. The stronger system will likely dive SW. The weaker it will stay west to WNW. Right now here is the progression with last recon position at 990mb.



Now look at the steering:

If stays the same


If it gets much stronger. Look out.

That would just turn it due south into the Caribbean?

[emeraldislenc]

I know I am going to play close attention the next few days will be interesting.Anyone on the coast of NC north needs to pay attention!

[gatorcane]

The other "what if" is what if the cut-off low doesn't develop over the SE United States as near as strong as the models are thinking? There is nothing over the SE US now, the models are forecasting it to form. That would certainly change the outcome of where Joaquin ends up.

It does appear some cut-off low will develop but the models show quite an anomalously strong cut-off low /trough forming deep down into Florida for this time of year.

[Aric Dunn]

Very interesting steering maps. The stronger system will likely dive SW. The weaker it will stay west to WNW. Right now here is the progression with last recon position at 990mb.



Now look at the steering:

If stays the same


If it gets much stronger. Look out.

That would just turn it due south into the Caribbean?

No, remember everything is fluid so that ridge is forecast to build to the north and then slide ne of the system. so it will impart a wsw to SW motion then stall then a long with the complex trough system let the system move northerly.

[blp]

blp you touched on exactly what I was going to ask. With the current setup fill in the blanks:

A stronger system will head ________ vs a weaker system heading __________ .

If I understand correctly that would be SW vs WNW.

So, my second question is how far south would this have to get to shift west to, say, Florida?

That is correct. With this system is now probably under 990mb since last recon if will start to feel the tug from the higher levels in the atmosphere to head SW or WSW.

I still think the odds are long that it gets to Florida but they are a little higher than yesterday. If this blows up with rapid intensification and picks up more forward speed it could get too close for comfort. Most of the models show system heading either West or SW for the next 48hrs so it will be interesting to see the forward speed which could make this interesting. I definitely think the Bahamas are going to get hit. I can't see this missing the Bahamas now.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 SEP 2015 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 25:58:08 N Lon : 71:08:49 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 / 999.2mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.8 3.6

Center Temp : -73.4C Cloud Region Temp : -73.0C

[Yellow Evan]

29/2345 UTC 26.0N 71.6W T3.5/3.5 JOAQUIN -- Atlantic

SAB might be using the wrong pattern type.

[Aric Dunn]

the 11pm advisory will likely be 70mph. unless microwave or satellite starts showing and eye feature between now and then.

[ninel conde]

looks like the first cane west of 60. with the trof and the cane i would expect possible floyd like flooding in nc and va. assuming it stays well offshore we could still get very high tides.

[Yellow Evan]

As I suspected, not sure if I'd use a shear pattern.

TXNT23 KNES 300007
TCSNTL

A. 11L (JOAQUIN)

B. 29/2345Z

C. 26.0N

D. 71.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...DT=3.5 BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LOW LEVEL CENTER 1/3
DG INTO CONVECTION. PT=3.5. MET=3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

29/2207Z 26.2N 71.5W SSMIS


...SCHWARTZ

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track up to 60kts.

AL, 11, 2015093000, , BEST, 0, 258N, 715W, 60, 988, TS

[ozonepete]

Microwave imagery still shows a badly sheared storm but there is much more banding than yesterday.

There's a morning recon, barring ASCAT data showing such, they may wait until then to upgrade if it makes it by then.

?? Aric just posted microwave sat images which clearly show it is not badly sheared at all. Shear has clearly dropped.

3/4 of the circulation is low clouds, that still counts as badly sheared. Convection either has yet to wrap around or has been sheared back off from where it was earlier.

That's not correct. Sorry. It's sheared. It's not badly sheared. It's important to get that straight.

[HurrMark]

Latest Shear Analysis still shows 20kts of Northerly shear affecting Joaquin ATM.

Several hours old...I think it has lessened since.

[Yellow Evan]

That's not correct. Sorry. It's sheared. It's not badly sheared. It's important to get that straight.

Microwave does suggest some northwerstly shear, though the shear appears to be relaxing.

I'd like to see a poleward outflow channel before seeing true RI. Right now, there's just modest equatorword outflow.

[Aric Dunn]

That's not correct. Sorry. It's sheared. It's not badly sheared. It's important to get that straight.

Microwave does suggest some northwerstly shear, though the shear appears to be relaxing.

I'd like to see a poleward outflow channel before seeing true RI. Right now, there's just modest equatorword outflow.

wont see any substantial northerly outflow until late tomorrow as it approaches the bahamas.

[tropicwatch]

Latest image about 30 minutes ago.

[1900hurricane]

Circulation is still near the NW edge of the convection. Getting better, but shear patter is still the one to go with at the moment.

[LarryWx]

looks like the first cane west of 60. with the trof and the cane i would expect possible floyd like flooding in nc and va. assuming it stays well offshore we could still get very high tides.

Stay vigilant, Ninel!

[windnrain]

Starting to get "that look"