ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

[CrazyC83]

I'm starting to think the Euro ensembles have the right idea and this comes ashore quickly, like in the Carolinas or even Georgia. Even though it gets cut off it appears, the trough looks to amplify very quickly...

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS Ensembles spread by hour 96. Shifted west again with North Carolina getting some hits by ensembles:

[PTrackerLA]

18z HWRF:

[gatorcane]

BIG shift west by the HWRF....

[SeGaBob]

Is there any possible way it could get this far west with the models?

[CrazyC83]

Is there any possible way it could get this far west with the models?

I see no reason why not.

[gatorcane]

simulated IR of HWRF at 48 hours. Those are the Bahamas and SE Florida at the far left of the image

[TheStormExpert]

Yep a westward and more clustered shift in the 18z GFS Ensembles.

[PTrackerLA]

18z GFDL huge shift west into Long Island, NY...

[TheStormExpert]

Hopefully models come into agreement overnight and we don't see the windshield wiping effect. Unfortunately the agreement may be on a Mid-Atlantic/Northeast U.S. hit!

[CrazyC83]

Yep a westward and more clustered shift in the 18z GFS Ensembles.

I think they are on to something...and it might only shift farther and farther south and west.

[JtSmarts]

Only about 4 days out if NC gets hit first, so hopefully we have a tight consensus soon. Despite having an early class I know I'll be up waiting for the euro lol.

[TheStormExpert]

Can't see them going any further south than NC IMO. Though never say never!

[TheStormExpert]

Only about 4 days out if NC gets hit first, so hopefully we have a tight consensus soon. Despite having an early class I know I'll be up waiting for the euro lol.

Interesting to note that the Euro was the first to sniff out this Mid-Atlantic/Northeast U.S. potential threat before trending out sea in the last two runs.

[Bocadude85]

:uarrow: Can't see them going any further south than NC IMO. Though never say never!

I could see South Carolina coming into play.

[terstorm1012]

Which model ensemble takes this out to sea? The hurricane center indicates there's a divergence around day 4-5. They still have it far offshore on Sunday afternoon.

[TheProfessor]

Only about 4 days out if NC gets hit first, so hopefully we have a tight consensus soon. Despite having an early class I know I'll be up waiting for the euro lol.

I have a Physics midterm this Monday and a progaming project due Sunday, I'm going to have to balance studying and watching this storm. so no late night model watchibg for me.

[LarryWx]

Is there any possible way it could get this far west with the models?

Nothing is impossible but the odds of this coming off of the Atlantic into GA, FL, or even lower SC are extremely low as of this time as I've seen zero model runs even come close. There's no indication of any NW steering that would be required that far south. That normally requires a strong enough high high up enough in the atmosphere to the north controlling the steering. About the only way I could see this affecting you (and this is very low probability as of now) is if the model consensus is way off and he somehow moves much further WSW or SW than the consensus and throw everything up in the air. For that to happen, I'd think there'd have to be rapid enough strengthening soon causing the mean steering layer to be much higher and to where steering could conceivably become more toward the SW and faster. Extreme longshot right now and would be quite an unusual track. Also, that longshot would be it coming to you from a different direction, not moving NW from the Atlantic.

[SeGaBob]

Thanks for the detailed explanation.

[floridasun78]

whee will turn nnw?