ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

I just thought as well...if Joaquin is RI'ing and becomes deeper quickly, it becomes less affected by troughs at certain levels?

[bahamaswx]

I'd be shocked if he made it this far south. But then again, storms like Ike always remind me that anything can happen.

[AutoPenalti]

Can someone explain to me the importance of the intensity of a cane and the influence of this ridge? As far as I know, an RI can dig a ridge farther south, and the trough will have no influence with where this cane can go.

[gatorcane]

Latest IR loop. Either the storm is speeding up more to the west or the clouds are really expanding more quickly that way. Thoughts?

[emeraldislenc]

Looks more impressive each hour!

[northjaxpro]

I'd be shocked if he made it this far south. But then again, storms like Ike always remind me that anything can happen.

You can't take your eye off Joaquin. It would not take much at all at this point for the ridge to be a bit stronger than initially forecasted to push Joaquin a bit father south and west into your area. I would stay on the alert there until Joaquin lifts past your Latitude.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 SEP 2015 Time : 004500 UTC
Lat : 25:56:19 N Lon : 71:14:43 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 / 997.2mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 3.0 4.3

Center Temp : -75.5C Cloud Region Temp : -77.0C

[ozonepete]

Current wind shear.

20kt line is further south, indicating the shear is not backing off quite yet and may still be getting stronger at least in the short term.

those maps are extremely relative .. all the gulf stream data ( also read the discussion) shows decreasing shear and is clearly noticeable in the structure.

I'll just reiterate what Aric said: Shear is clearly decreasing and if you want proof just watch how the structure has changed since earlier today. You just cannot get that kind of symmetry unless shear is not significant. Increasing shear would not allow the improving structure we all are following.

[OuterBanker]

Just my luck. I'm in lake lure nc on holiday. Return Sunday. After Joaquin. Oh well. Looks like the OBX won't take a direct hit. But it does look like I might need an ark on return.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like Joaquin is quickly becoming better organized. Convection is much more symmetric about the center. I am quite surprised at how fast this transformation has occurred, especially considering outflow to the NW is still essentially nonexistent. Upper level cirrus are still racing off to the SE due to the brisk NW upper tropospheric flow. It makes me wonder if the shear is confined to a very high level in the troposphere such that mid level shear is minimal.

[dexterlabio]

I see the track in the S2k map shows a northeast movement and out to sea..but it seems the east coast folks are concerned about this. Are we expecting a turn to the west at the end of the forecast period? You know, a la Sandy 2012?

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like Joaquin is quickly becoming better organized. Convection is much more symmetric about the center. I am quite surprised at how fast this transformation has occurred, especially considering outflow to the NW is still essentially nonexistent. Upper level cirrus are still racing off to the SE due to the brisk NW upper tropospheric flow. It makes me wonder if the shear is confined to a very high level in the troposphere such that mid level shear is minimal.

was just in the middle of mentioning that. Mid level shear has to have been the majority of the issue earlier. have you checked the gulfstream data. ?

[Hammy]

You actually wager on storms hammy? We have been known to have a bet on a roach race down here but that's usally after hours on Jack Daniel's

I don't follow sports much so this takes it's place.

I'm watching the satellite and trying to figure if there is dry air entrainment on the south, or if it's wrapping or banding, and would it be a fair assumption at this point that the center is likely on the western edge of the convection at this point rather than northwest?

[gatorcane]

Here is the latest loop with latest frame (the loop I posted above missed the last frame), convection really expanding westward or moving a little more quickly west maybe?

[emeraldislenc]

It is great when the professional mets and when the experts chime in. They really help!

[HurrMark]

I see the track in the S2k map shows a northeast movement and out to sea..but it seems the east coast folks are concerned about this. Are we expecting a turn to the west at the end of the forecast period? You know, a la Sandy 2012?

Things are still in limbo...there are still some out-to-sea models, and the NHC is taking a "middle ground" track right now. I suspect there will be a west shift in the next advisory based on the 18Z model suite.

[AutoPenalti]

Here is the latest loop with latest frame (the loop I posted above missed the last frame), convection really expanding westward or moving a little more quickly west maybe?

Convection is giving the illusion that it's moving west at a rapid pace.

[LarryWx]

My guess is that what looks like faster westward motion is due to a combo of some actual faster motion and convection wrapping better around the western side due to decreasing shear there. Note that the eastern edge of the convection isn't moving westward as fast as the western edge.
Opinions?

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like Joaquin is quickly becoming better organized. Convection is much more symmetric about the center. I am quite surprised at how fast this transformation has occurred, especially considering outflow to the NW is still essentially nonexistent. Upper level cirrus are still racing off to the SE due to the brisk NW upper tropospheric flow. It makes me wonder if the shear is confined to a very high level in the troposphere such that mid level shear is minimal.

was just in the middle of mentioning that. Mid level shear has to have been the majority of the issue earlier. have you checked the gulfstream data. ?

I'm only able to see a portion of the sondes launched at the moment for some reason, but it does seem that there may be a small band of northerly shear at ~300 hPa. It is possible that the intense convection and associated outflow is reducing the harmful effects of the environmental shear and that by now the band of shear is much less, hence the enhanced convection.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like Joaquin is quickly becoming better organized. Convection is much more symmetric about the center. I am quite surprised at how fast this transformation has occurred, especially considering outflow to the NW is still essentially nonexistent. Upper level cirrus are still racing off to the SE due to the brisk NW upper tropospheric flow. It makes me wonder if the shear is confined to a very high level in the troposphere such that mid level shear is minimal.

was just in the middle of mentioning that. Mid level shear has to have been the majority of the issue earlier. have you checked the gulfstream data. ?

I'm only able to see a portion of the sondes launched at the moment for some reason, but it does seem that there may be a small band of northerly shear at ~300 hPa. It is possible that the intense convection and associated outflow is reducing the harmful effects of the environmental shear and that by now the band of shear is much less, hence the enhanced convection.

that makes sense...As well as the large amount of divergence on the southern half of the circ.