ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#601 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:08 pm

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#602 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:10 pm

If I was on Eleuthera in the Bahamas I would be preparing for some pretty rough weather. Joaquin looks to be making a beeline for that island.










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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#603 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:12 pm


Based on the last couple of frames, it looks like it moved WNW.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#604 Postby emeraldislenc » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:13 pm

What about warnings at 11 for the Bahamas? :flag:
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#605 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:14 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:

Based on the last couple of frames, it looks like it moved WNW.


You can't see movement with IR, the mid level and upper level is moving based on the upper air conditions. I assume it's getting more aligned with the LLC which would make it appear to move north and west.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#606 Postby crimi481 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:15 pm

It's possible another door cracks open for drifting more to South?.. as steering currents becoming flaky. Stalls or loops around.
I am no Pro- just sayin...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-bd.html
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#607 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:16 pm

tolakram wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:

Based on the last couple of frames, it looks like it moved WNW.


You can't see movement with IR, the mid level and upper level is moving based on the upper air conditions. I assume it's getting more aligned with the LLC which would make it appear to move north and west.

Would that be telling that the ridge is actually weakening pulling this system up to the north? Sorry if it's a dumb question.
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#608 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:20 pm

Last edited by tropicwatch on Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#609 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:21 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 SEP 2015 Time : 011500 UTC
Lat : 25:48:41 N Lon : 71:34:46 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 996.1mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.0 4.0
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#610 Postby WPBWeather » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:29 pm

This is where the GS 13 or 15 forecaster needs to think about what to recommend to the higher ups--who ultimately decide what goes out as far as watches or warnings. The TCVN model is not a line I would like to think about :double:
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#611 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:34 pm

Intensity wise is also a call to be made I wouldn't want to make. I think they will wait for the most recent ASCAT which is due anytime now.
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#612 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:35 pm

Question is: does the NHC show a United States landfall this update or do they wait to see what the overnight models and ECMWF do?

The media is going to have a field day with this system if the NHC track shows a hurricane into the US.
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#613 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:35 pm

if recon was out there.. I bet they would say. open SW and thats it..
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Re:

#614 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:37 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:Intensity wise is also a call to be made I wouldn't want to make. I think they will wait for the most recent ASCAT which is due anytime now.


ASCAT is pretty useless as this point in it's intensity.

I also see little reason why we will not have a Category 3 or 4 hurricane in a day or two.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#615 Postby emeraldislenc » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:38 pm

Good question about if they show a US landfall.
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Re:

#616 Postby invest man » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:39 pm

gatorcane wrote:Question is: does the NHC show a United States landfall this update or do they wait to see what the overnight models and ECMWF do?

I feel that they have is issue watches for Bahamas at 11. Now whether they show a landfall on the US only if it is from Hatteras to Wilmington. IM

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#617 Postby OuterBanker » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:41 pm

The previous post was my first on Joaquin. Been out of touch since Sunday and am using my phone on really bad Internet. Is this the ull that moved to the surface? And wasn't this supposed to only get to depression status? What happened?
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#618 Postby GeneratorPower » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:42 pm

They will not show a landfall on the mainland US. No way. They will probably wait a few more advisories.
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Re:

#619 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:42 pm

OuterBanker wrote:The previous post was my first on Joaquin. Been out of touch since Sunday and am using my phone on really bad Internet. Is this the ull that moved to the surface? And wasn't this supposed to only get to depression status? What happened?

Weather happened.
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#620 Postby emeraldislenc » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:43 pm

Can't wait for the 11 pm !
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