ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#621 Postby ozonepete » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:45 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:They will not show a landfall on the mainland US. No way. They will probably wait a few more advisories.


If their best analysis shows a landfall at NC or VA or even further north they will show it. It will be 4 or 5 days out and that requires no warnings or watches at all.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#622 Postby invest man » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:46 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:They will not show a landfall on the mainland US. No way. They will probably wait a few more advisories.

Hatteras is the closest land to where the 5PM advisory had it and I don't believe they will swing it that far west. IM
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Re:

#623 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:46 pm

OuterBanker wrote:The previous post was my first on Joaquin. Been out of touch since Sunday and am using my phone on really bad Internet. Is this the ull that moved to the surface? And wasn't this supposed to only get to depression status? What happened?



Well, Joaquin did originate from the large ULL whcih was north of the Leewards, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola throughout all last week. The large ULL then interacted with a surface trough and found an area of lesser shear to allow for the rare transition of ULL to tropical cyclone. I take some pride in being the first to call for such development from the ULL to possibly take place last week.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:49 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#624 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:46 pm

too much of a shift

now, a question can be asked is should they have been showing a us landfall the whole time?
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#625 Postby GeneratorPower » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:47 pm

ozonepete wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:They will not show a landfall on the mainland US. No way. They will probably wait a few more advisories.


If their best analysis shows a landfall at NC or VA or even further north they will show it. It will be 4 or 5 days out and that requires no warnings or watches at all.


Meh. Not to argue too much with you, but I still think they'll avoid it for a few advisories. Just a pattern I've noticed when models are not well clustered.
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Re: Re:

#626 Postby HurricaneBelle » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:49 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
Well, Joaquin did originate from the large ULL whcih was north of the Leewards, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola throughout all last week. The large ULL then interacted with a surface trough and found an area of less hospitable shear to allow for the rare transition of ULL to tropical cyclone. I take some pride in being the first to call for such development from the ULL to possibly take place last week.


The upper low originated from a trough that came off the NC coast on September 15: http://i.imwx.com/web/multimedia/images ... rigin.html

And yes, you do take pride in that call, mentioning it every chance you can.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#627 Postby ozonepete » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:51 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:They will not show a landfall on the mainland US. No way. They will probably wait a few more advisories.


If their best analysis shows a landfall at NC or VA or even further north they will show it. It will be 4 or 5 days out and that requires no warnings or watches at all.


Meh. Not to argue too much with you, but I still think they'll avoid it for a few advisories. Just a pattern I've noticed when models are not well clustered.


Lol. I see your point. Just think they don't care about avoiding that scenario since they use the cone and it's all just chances 4 or 5 days out.
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#628 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:51 pm

This got structurally organized in a hurry. A METOP-B pass about an hour old shows what might be a proto-eyewall.
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#629 Postby TimeZone » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:52 pm

Looks like it just gulped some dry air? That would slow down intensification.
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#630 Postby Andrew92 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:52 pm

This certainly wouldn't be the first major shift though. For example, Debby in 2012 shifted from west-northwest into Louisiana in one full advisory to straight north into the Florida Panhandle in the next.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if we see the East Coast in the projected path/cone this advisory package.

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Re: Re:

#631 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:53 pm

HurricaneBelle wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
Well, Joaquin did originate from the large ULL whcih was north of the Leewards, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola throughout all last week. The large ULL then interacted with a surface trough and found an area of less hospitable shear to allow for the rare transition of ULL to tropical cyclone. I take some pride in being the first to call for such development from the ULL to possibly take place last week.


The upper low originated from a trough that came off the NC coast on September 15: http://i.imwx.com/web/multimedia/images ... rigin.html

And yes, you do take pride in that call, mentioning it every chance you can.


And why not. It is a very rare phenomenon to see such a transistion occur and one in which 9 out of 10 times I would probably never stick my neck out on about. So, hell yeah, anyone would consider that a nice coup.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#632 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:53 pm

Buoy ZCE13 at 22.9N and 73.6W reporting winds of 39mph. This buoy is just northeast of Crooked Islands Bahamas.
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#633 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:54 pm

70... as expected.
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#634 Postby Andrew92 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:54 pm

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

The cloud pattern of Joaquin has continued to become better
organized this evening. The low-level center is located within the
northwestern portion of the deep convection and the outflow has
continued to expand over the northern semicircle, which suggests
that the shear continues to decrease. The latest satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T3.5 or 55 kt on the
Dvorak scale. Based on the earlier reconnaissance aircraft data and
the continued increase in organization this evening, the initial
wind speed has been raised to 60 kt. Joaquin is forecast to be over
warm water and in an increasingly favorable upper-level wind pattern
during the next day or so. These conditions favor intensification
and the NHC forecast calls for Joaquin to become a hurricane within
the next 12 hours. The upper-level winds are shown by the global
models to become quite conducive for strengthening by 36 hours as an
upper-level anticyclone builds over the system, and additional
strengthening is anticipated. The new NHC forecast is a bit
higher than the previous advisory, and is close to the IVCN
intensity consensus aid. It should be noted, that the UKMET, GFS,
and ECMWF models all significantly deepen Joaquin during the next
few days, and the NHC forecast could be somewhat conservative.

Joaquin is moving west-southwestward at about 5 kt. This general
motion is forecast to continue during the next 24-36 hours while the
cyclone remains to the southwest of a weak mid-level ridge. During
this time, the center of Joaquin is forecast to move near or over
portions of the Central Bahamas. After 48 hours, a deepening mid-
to upper-level trough over the southeastern United States is
expected to cause a turn toward the north or north-northeast with an
increase in forward speed. There remains large spread in the
guidance at days 4 and 5, with the ECMWF showing a northeastward
motion toward Bermuda. Meanwhile, the 18Z GFS shifted significantly
westward and is close to the UKMET and HWRF, which are along the
western edge of the guidance envelope. The NHC track has been
shifted westward, but it is not as far west as the multi-model
consensus. The new track is fairly close to the ECMWF-Ensemble Mean.

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
Central Bahamas. Additional watches or warnings may be required
early Wednesday.

At this time it is very hard to gauge the long-range potential
impacts of Joaquin in the United States. The environmental steering
currents are complex and are not being handled in a consistent
manner by the forecast models. A wide range of outcomes are
possible and it is simply too soon to say what impacts, if any,
Joaquin will have on the United States.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 25.8N 71.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 25.5N 72.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 25.2N 73.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 24.8N 74.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 24.9N 74.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 26.7N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 31.3N 72.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 35.5N 72.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#635 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:54 pm

Hurricane watch for the central Bahamas.
Last edited by Bocadude85 on Tue Sep 29, 2015 10:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#636 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:58 pm

Track still well east of the United States but highly uncertain. That track the ECMWF showed out to sea is carrying some weight no doubt.
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#637 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:58 pm

Andrew92 wrote:ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

The cloud pattern of Joaquin has continued to become better
organized this evening. The low-level center is located within the
northwestern portion of the deep convection and the outflow has
continued to expand over the northern semicircle, which suggests
that the shear continues to decrease. The latest satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T3.5 or 55 kt on the
Dvorak scale. Based on the earlier reconnaissance aircraft data and
the continued increase in organization this evening, the initial
wind speed has been raised to 60 kt. Joaquin is forecast to be over
warm water and in an increasingly favorable upper-level wind pattern
during the next day or so. These conditions favor intensification
and the NHC forecast calls for Joaquin to become a hurricane within
the next 12 hours. The upper-level winds are shown by the global
models to become quite conducive for strengthening by 36 hours as an
upper-level anticyclone builds over the system, and additional
strengthening is anticipated. The new NHC forecast is a bit
higher than the previous advisory, and is close to the IVCN
intensity consensus aid. It should be noted, that the UKMET, GFS,
and ECMWF models all significantly deepen Joaquin during the next
few days, and the NHC forecast could be somewhat conservative.

Joaquin is moving west-southwestward at about 5 kt. This general
motion is forecast to continue during the next 24-36 hours while the
cyclone remains to the southwest of a weak mid-level ridge. During
this time, the center of Joaquin is forecast to move near or over
portions of the Central Bahamas. After 48 hours, a deepening mid-
to upper-level trough over the southeastern United States is
expected to cause a turn toward the north or north-northeast with an
increase in forward speed. There remains large spread in the
guidance at days 4 and 5, with the ECMWF showing a northeastward
motion toward Bermuda. Meanwhile, the 18Z GFS shifted significantly
westward and is close to the UKMET and HWRF, which are along the
western edge of the guidance envelope. The NHC track has been
shifted westward, but it is not as far west as the multi-model
consensus. The new track is fairly close to the ECMWF-Ensemble Mean.

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
Central Bahamas. Additional watches or warnings may be required
early Wednesday.

At this time it is very hard to gauge the long-range potential
impacts of Joaquin in the United States. The environmental steering
currents are complex and are not being handled in a consistent
manner by the forecast models. A wide range of outcomes are
possible and it is simply too soon to say what impacts, if any,
Joaquin will have on the United States.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 25.8N 71.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 25.5N 72.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 25.2N 73.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 24.8N 74.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 24.9N 74.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 26.7N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 31.3N 72.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 35.5N 72.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN

Can this trough really steer Joaquin? Is it even strong enough to do that?
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#638 Postby Andrew92 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:58 pm

Definitely bending left after the hard right turn, and intensity...yuck. This is not a good trend at all.

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#639 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Sep 29, 2015 10:01 pm

:uarrow: One of the lengthiest and most uncertain forecast discussions of intensity and track of a tropical cyclone I have seen from the NHC.
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#640 Postby Andrew92 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 10:03 pm

Also worth noting is that, as long as conditions favor strengthening in the atmosphere, the Gulf Stream and its very warm waters could easily come in to play. I only see the term "warm water" in the discussion, and that current can easily strengthen hurricanes in a hurry if everything else is just right.

-Andrew92
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