ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tatertawt24]

The previous post was my first on Joaquin. Been out of touch since Sunday and am using my phone on really bad Internet. Is this the ull that moved to the surface? And wasn't this supposed to only get to depression status? What happened?

The opposite of whats been happening in 2015 in usually the storm weakens and the shear strengthens well the opposite is happening here and this could be the hurricane of 2015 and quite possibly could god forbid end the 10 year streak of no major landfalls

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I don't want to be superstitious or take away from the scientific discussion, but it would be interesting if yet another major hurricane made landfall during a year ending in 5. Been that way since 1945.

[Andrew92]

The previous post was my first on Joaquin. Been out of touch since Sunday and am using my phone on really bad Internet. Is this the ull that moved to the surface? And wasn't this supposed to only get to depression status? What happened?

The opposite of whats been happening in 2015 in usually the storm weakens and the shear strengthens well the opposite is happening here and this could be the hurricane of 2015 and quite possibly could god forbid end the 10 year streak of no major landfalls

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I don't want to be superstitious or take away from the scientific discussion, but it would be interesting if yet another major hurricane made landfall during a year ending in 5. Been that way since 1945.

Maybe off-topic, but this also has the potential to be very close to the 20th anniversary of Opal to the date.

I have a feeling the west shifts aren't done yet, but time will tell and hopefully the Euro gives us some much-needed clarity soon. Be ready if you are on the East Coast anyway though!

-Andrew92

[tropicwatch]

Anybody know how to spell the sound from the twilight zone?

[fci]

Wait, are the models shifting from a mid-atl landfall now?

I think NHC is keeping it offshore for the time being until there is more solid agreement in the models in order to avoid a media panic. It shifted a bit west this advisory.

I totally agree. The implications of forecasting a Hurricane along the Eastern Seaboard will cause a lot of money to be spent. Until there is either just not enough time or a more complete model consensus; they will err to the right.

[smithtim]

Wait, are the models shifting from a mid-atl landfall now?

I think NHC is keeping it offshore for the time being until there is more solid agreement in the models in order to avoid a media panic. It shifted a bit west this advisory.

Well spoken!!! It's a very delicate balance they have to keep...I can only imagine their current stress levels and am super grateful that we have such an organization to siphon through allthe info and spell it out to the millions in a paragraph or two.

[Aric Dunn]

70... as expected.

Yeah but check out 3 days...110... as a math dude I know slight change in the IVC can have major effect... think last run crappy now all of a sudden defined growing cane in area high potential Rapid intenification and/or ERC...got my redflag up!!!

BTW good to see you here bro and hope all is well out there... FYI surf was crazy today, clean DOH and surfline is orange all week quick jump on a plane!!!

Mr Tim !

yeah its pretty normal for the NHC to not upgrade at 11 or make any large changes. tomorrow will be the day.

[Aric Dunn]

Western half of the convection has collapsed in the last hour, and the NAM (the first model with the shear data to run) shows level or weakened intensity over the next 60 hours. Better shear data may hit the reset button on the models intensity-wise.

Its very normal for this type of convection pattern. you have to have that first initial burst to wrap around lowering the pressure and building the Low level structure upwards through the levels.

[rickybobby]

According to wesh 2 even though a cold front is coming it doesn't mean anything if the storm intensifies quickly. It could go south or west. Florida should keep an eye on but the folks in the mid Atlantic should get ready.

[tropicwatch]

Western half of the convection has collapsed in the last hour, and the NAM (the first model with the shear data to run) shows level or weakened intensity over the next 60 hours. Better shear data may hit the reset button on the models intensity-wise.

Its very normal for this type of convection pattern. you have to have that first initial burst to wrap around lowering the pressure and building the Low level structure upwards through the levels.

Coming back around the east side now.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Western half of the convection has collapsed in the last hour, and the NAM (the first model with the shear data to run) shows level or weakened intensity over the next 60 hours. Better shear data may hit the reset button on the models intensity-wise.

Its very normal for this type of convection pattern. you have to have that first initial burst to wrap around lowering the pressure and building the Low level structure upwards through the levels.

Yup. There is little to suggest we won't be dealing with a potent hurricane near the Bahamas in a few days.

[SeGaBob]

Hammy you don't have to keep downplaying this storm... it might be getting stronger just to mess with you.

But on a serious note If this wasn't a potential threat to land I'd like to see it get to cat 4 or 5.

[tatertawt24]

Wait, are the models shifting from a mid-atl landfall now?

I think NHC is keeping it offshore for the time being until there is more solid agreement in the models in order to avoid a media panic. It shifted a bit west this advisory.

Well spoken!!! It's a very delicate balance they have to keep...I can only imagine their current stress levels and am super grateful that we have such an organization to siphon through allthe info and spell it out to the millions in a paragraph or two.

The bright side here would be that it's looking right now to be an actual, tropical hurricane at the hypothetical landfall, as opposed to Sandy, which they had no idea what to call, because it was no longer technically a hurricane, but they needed people to take it seriously.

[smithtim]

70... as expected.

Yeah but check out 3 days...110... as a math dude I know slight change in the IVC can have major effect... think last run crappy now all of a sudden defined growing cane in area high potential Rapid intenification and/or ERC...got my redflag up!!!

BTW good to see you here bro and hope all is well out there... FYI surf was crazy today, clean DOH and surfline is orange all week quick jump on a plane!!!

Mr Tim !

yeah its pretty normal for the NHC to not upgrade at 11 or make any large changes. tomorrow will be the day.

Yeah makes sense..let's pray for the best like they say "send great swell to surf then cruise on off to sea without causing any damage to property or life"

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah but check out 3 days...110... as a math dude I know slight change in the IVC can have major effect... think last run crappy now all of a sudden defined growing cane in area high potential Rapid intenification and/or ERC...got my redflag up!!!

BTW good to see you here bro and hope all is well out there... FYI surf was crazy today, clean DOH and surfline is orange all week quick jump on a plane!!!

Mr Tim !

yeah its pretty normal for the NHC to not upgrade at 11 or make any large changes. tomorrow will be the day.

Yeah makes sense..let's pray for the best like they say "send great swell to surf then cruise on off to sea without causing any damage to property or life"

I likely be flying out for this one if things pan out.

[Hammy]

I noted earlier so I'm wondering if it sucked in a bit of dry air--the overall appearance reminds me a bit of Erin in 1995 as it approached Florida.

[Aric Dunn]

00z gfs dropping even farther wsw to sw entering bahamas at 48 hours and deepening. 944mb

[Aric Dunn]

I noted earlier so I'm wondering if it sucked in a bit of dry air--the overall appearance reminds me a bit of Erin in 1995 as it approached Florida.

THe surrounding environment is incredibly moist dewpoints from recon and soundings show a very condusive environment

[northjaxpro]

This looks a boarder-line cane now expecting to see the upgrade soon.

Beautiful comma shape symmetry. Joaquin is looking very ominous by the hour. There is a real serious possiblity of seeing Joaquin potentially bombing near the Bahamas within the next 24 -36 hours.

[floridasun78]

so Bahamas may get pretty good by hurr if gfs right could chance may turn between Bahamas and fl coast line?

[Alyono]

to be honest, cat 5 is not impossible. I know its early. However, everything looks incredibly favorable