ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

They did find some SFR winds close 72.5mph in the se quadrant.

[Alyono]

If this drops any further to the south, there is going to be a major flood in Haiti

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 301136
AF300 0311A JOAQUIN HDOB 29 20150930
112730 2411N 07049W 6967 03114 0005 +099 +034 206030 031 038 003 03
112800 2413N 07048W 6969 03113 0008 +096 +034 202029 030 038 002 00
112830 2415N 07048W 6967 03115 0013 +092 +035 209032 033 037 002 00
112900 2417N 07047W 6969 03112 0007 +097 +031 211035 036 037 001 00
112930 2419N 07046W 6962 03119 0007 +098 +023 206039 040 040 001 00
113000 2421N 07045W 6970 03111 0006 +098 +030 197037 039 040 002 00
113030 2423N 07045W 6967 03114 0003 +099 +033 196037 037 038 003 00
113100 2425N 07045W 6967 03114 0009 +094 +035 192037 037 039 002 00
113130 2427N 07045W 6968 03113 0004 +099 +042 187037 038 039 002 00
113200 2429N 07045W 6968 03114 9997 +105 +032 191037 037 040 001 00
113230 2432N 07045W 6969 03114 9999 +107 +018 189037 038 040 001 00
113300 2434N 07045W 6964 03118 9987 +114 +011 186036 037 039 001 00
113330 2436N 07045W 6958 03125 9993 +108 +019 179038 039 036 000 00
113400 2438N 07045W 6965 03116 9987 +112 +015 179036 038 037 001 00
113430 2441N 07045W 6968 03109 9990 +108 +016 180039 040 038 001 00
113500 2443N 07045W 6966 03111 9994 +105 +016 177041 042 037 001 00
113530 2446N 07045W 6970 03105 9986 +108 +009 174039 041 039 000 00
113600 2448N 07045W 6964 03111 9982 +110 +006 175039 040 038 001 00
113630 2451N 07045W 6966 03105 9984 +106 +013 179041 042 037 001 00
113700 2453N 07045W 6968 03102 9997 +096 +028 176043 043 037 001 00
$$

[gatorcane]

This thing is losing latitude quickly even more than the left-most models.

[tatertawt24]

Looks kinda like Ike in the gulf.

[drezee]

Let me give our S2K family a brief explanation on a potential explanation for the wide gap in winds and pressure besides the surrounding pressure. We have a few examples of this (only while recon was in the system). Opal '95, Juan...

When RI first commences, the pressure can fall quite quickly and it takes up to 4-6 hours for the winds to catch up. If is indeed the reason, then Joaquin will ramp quite quickly over the next 24 hours.

[HURAKAN]

...JOAQUIN BECOMES A HURRICANE...

8:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 30
Location: 24.9°N 72.2°W
Moving: SW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 971 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

[Weatherwatcher98]

Let me give our S2K family a brief explanation on a potential explanation for the wide gap in winds and pressure besides the surrounding pressure. We have a few examples of this (only while recon was in the system). Opal '95, Juan...

When RI first commences, the pressure can fall quite quickly and it takes up to 4-6 hours for the winds to catch up. If is indeed the reason, then Joaquin will ramp quite quickly over the next 24 hours.

According to Satellite RI kooks like it's happening

[tatertawt24]

...JOAQUIN BECOMES A HURRICANE...

8:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 30
Location: 24.9°N 72.2°W
Moving: SW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 971 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

No matter how much I anticipate it, it still surprises me when I see those words come up.

[Cyclenall]

...JOAQUIN BECOMES A HURRICANE...

8:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 30
Location: 24.9°N 72.2°W
Moving: SW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 971 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

Ok, there it is. Media frenzy in 3...2...1...

[Extratropical94]

AF300 0311A JOAQUIN HDOB 30 20150930
113730 2456N 07046W 6975 03096 9994 +100 +022 174040 042 037 001 00
113800 2458N 07046W 6961 03113 9982 +109 +009 168040 040 036 001 00
113830 2501N 07046W 6967 03107 9992 +104 +011 169040 040 036 001 00
113900 2503N 07046W 6979 03096 9994 +107 +011 166040 040 037 001 00
113930 2505N 07046W 6968 03108 9996 +101 +025 164042 044 038 001 00
114000 2507N 07046W 6962 03118 9995 +103 +025 161040 044 036 002 00
114030 2509N 07046W 6967 03110 9996 +105 +002 159038 039 034 001 00
114100 2511N 07046W 6969 03110 9999 +102 +004 156037 038 031 001 00
114130 2514N 07046W 6966 03111 0001 +100 +005 157038 039 032 001 00
114200 2516N 07046W 6967 03110 0004 +096 +011 156039 040 032 001 00
114230 2518N 07046W 6961 03118 0007 +093 +016 155039 039 032 000 00
114300 2520N 07046W 6969 03110 9990 +110 +005 150034 037 034 000 00
114330 2523N 07047W 6963 03117 9997 +105 +003 150035 036 034 001 00
114400 2525N 07047W 6969 03110 9994 +107 +004 146034 036 033 000 00
114430 2527N 07047W 6973 03108 9998 +105 +004 138034 034 034 000 00
114500 2530N 07047W 6961 03123 0000 +105 +004 139035 035 035 001 00
114530 2532N 07047W 6969 03114 0001 +105 +009 139036 036 035 001 00
114600 2534N 07047W 6967 03118 0003 +105 +012 140038 038 035 001 00
114630 2537N 07047W 6965 03118 0002 +103 +009 141035 038 032 001 00
114700 2539N 07047W 6974 03108 0005 +102 +015 146037 038 033 001 00
$$

[terstorm1012]

well this really is escalating quickly, and I did not expect that. Joaquin found a sweet spot.

[CrazyC83]

I'm starting to think this gets delayed as it gets trapped down south. Enough for the trough to weaken? Maybe. But I think landfall is more likely to be farther south.

[drezee]

Gotta love that bend in the track when recon finds the center elsewhere...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... _NL_sm.gif

[CrazyC83]

Given the new position, I would say a warning is warranted for the SE Bahamas as well.

[tatertawt24]

...JOAQUIN BECOMES A HURRICANE...

8:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 30
Location: 24.9°N 72.2°W
Moving: SW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 971 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

Ok, there it is. Media frenzy in 3...2...1...

I have the image in my head of the media unlocking a demonic beast that hasn't seen light in three years, letting out a formidable roar so its presence is known far and wide, before commencing its attack on Twitter.

[EquusStorm]

Well, didn't exactly wake up to a hurricane, but did manage to witness a post-breakfast hurricane.

The five-day track, as highly uncertain as it actually is, is pretty horrifying. Not that I live anywhere near there but to see what will become a significant hurricane currently pointed at New Jersey is the kind of thing that's gonna cause quite a bit of unease for a lot of people. Especially since ol' Sandy.

[gatorcane]

Given how quickly he is deepening, can he start pumping up the ridge sooner than we thought?

[AutoPenalti]

What has me disturbed is that not one model has been right so far when you think about it, the way it started was called for Joaquin to head north after 24 hrs of forming, fast forward to today and we have a cat 1 creeping ever so slight to the south-west with no indication of slowing down or moving north, and yet, we still see models forecasting to bump this to the north later in the forecast period. I've noticed a pattern this season.

I remember for Ericka, it was expected to pass north of shred city and that track did not happen, but they were anticipating the northward turn. It never happened, instead it kept moving west and later died out. Same with Ida, was expected to move to the north during its first stage of life, it didn't happen until, well it died.

Of course I'm not saying that in order for a system to move it needs to disapate, but just my amateur observation of what I learned so far this season. Anyone else can fill me in on this and see where I'm wrong?

[northjaxpro]

Joaquin is looking very impressive this morning. Outflow looks very good this morning and the structure is very symmetric. For the first time, Joaquin looks very well vertically stacked and rapid intensification appears a sure bet in the vicinity of the Bahamas the next 36 hours. Joaquin well on its way of becoming a major hurricane imo.