ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

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xironman
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#421 Postby xironman » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:15 am

The oddly accurate (with this storm) HWRF has it at 923 in 66 hours

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#422 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:26 am

Alyono wrote:EC forms a BS low from Joaquim. That's the issue

Same run shows a TC moving right on the Big Island of Hawaii and then sits it right there for maybe a day or so and strengthens it considerably while sitting on the mountain. Sounds routine.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#423 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:27 am

xironman wrote:The oddly accurate (with this storm) HWRF has it at 923 in 66 hours

Image
HWRF seems to always Love a storm in the beginning Kind of like a New Girlfriend :lol:
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#424 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:28 am

even the EC ensemble is showing a US landfall as the most likely scenario. That was blasted all over twitter
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#425 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:14 am

Looks to me like Joaquin would need to start moving poleward very quickly to not impact US. The trough over Quebec gets shunted eastward and the ridge N of Bermuda builds in. The way the GFS looks at 72 hours, there is no where for it to go but into the East Coast.

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#426 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:19 am

06z HWRF run shows landfall along the NC OBX's as a 946mb hurricane, FWIW.

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#427 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:22 am

06z GFDL shows landfall along coastal Virginia at about the same strength(pressure wise) as the HWRF.

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#428 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:25 am

06z GFS Ensembles.

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#429 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:37 am

Seems like a big difference in how the two main globals are handling this ridge building over Quebec. Maybe we can get some extra soundings from eastern Canada, eh?

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#430 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:43 am

Difference between Euro 0Z ensemble mean and the control.

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#431 Postby Weatherlover12 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:49 am

Is it safe for me in FL to not watch it as much anymore?
It's not gonna get trapped is it?
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Re:

#432 Postby xironman » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:50 am

TheStormExpert wrote:06z GFS Ensembles.

Image


Makes sense if you think about the steering currents for the different intensities of the storm. Throw out the 990s and two miss landfall.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#433 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:53 am

yes this isn't going to florida

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Last edited by tolakram on Wed Sep 30, 2015 8:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#434 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 30, 2015 8:00 am

SHIPS guidance seems off. It has 20 kts of shear over this now, which does not seem realistic
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Re:

#435 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 30, 2015 8:03 am

Alyono wrote:SHIPS guidance seems off. It has 20 kts of shear over this now, which does not seem realistic


CMISS has 10-20 knots of shear.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#436 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 30, 2015 8:04 am

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#437 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 30, 2015 8:06 am

stormlover2013 wrote:yes this isn't going to florida

While I'm not saying you're wrong at this point it's all about the battle between the trough and the ridge.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#438 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 30, 2015 8:12 am

Image

6z intensity models
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#439 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 30, 2015 8:16 am

0z UKMET targeting southern New Jersey.

6z ARPEGE (France) seems to be OTS.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#440 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 8:18 am

if this thing hits florida then these models are flat out pathetic lol,this isn't going to florida, lets worry about the east coast...lets hope this misses land because this could be a bad event

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Last edited by tolakram on Wed Sep 30, 2015 8:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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