
ATL: JOAQUIN - Models
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models
The oddly accurate (with this storm) HWRF has it at 923 in 66 hours


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Alyono wrote:EC forms a BS low from Joaquim. That's the issue
Same run shows a TC moving right on the Big Island of Hawaii and then sits it right there for maybe a day or so and strengthens it considerably while sitting on the mountain. Sounds routine.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models
HWRF seems to always Love a storm in the beginning Kind of like a New Girlfriendxironman wrote:The oddly accurate (with this storm) HWRF has it at 923 in 66 hours

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models
Difference between Euro 0Z ensemble mean and the control.




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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models
yes this isn't going to florida
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Last edited by tolakram on Wed Sep 30, 2015 8:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:
Alyono wrote:SHIPS guidance seems off. It has 20 kts of shear over this now, which does not seem realistic
CMISS has 10-20 knots of shear.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models
Animated version of 06z GFDL.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2015093006-joaquin11l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2015093006-joaquin11l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models
stormlover2013 wrote:yes this isn't going to florida
While I'm not saying you're wrong at this point it's all about the battle between the trough and the ridge.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models
if this thing hits florida then these models are flat out pathetic lol,this isn't going to florida, lets worry about the east coast...lets hope this misses land because this could be a bad event
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Last edited by tolakram on Wed Sep 30, 2015 8:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: added disclaimer
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