ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

I am curious to know the analogs of hurricanes coming up from this area and bending west into NC/VA. This might be a better suited question for Larrywx, but I am curious to know are they typically strengthening or weakening bending to the west into NC/VA?

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Although conditions this week seem to indicate a turn to the north before getting deep into the Bahamas, my old novice mind remembers Betsy in 1965, and Andrew in 1996 were both expected to turn to the north from approximately the same area.

A little old school you don't here people take about storms that far back now days Lol, I was in Key West when that one hit.

[tropicwatch]

Appears to be still moving wsw, center is well below 25N approaching 24N it looks like..

[Alyono]

Although conditions this week seem to indicate a turn to the north before getting deep into the Bahamas, my old novice mind remembers Betsy in 1965, and Andrew in 1996 were both expected to turn to the north from approximately the same area.

Andrew in 1992 was always forecast to turn back west

[xironman]

I am curious to know the analogs of hurricanes coming up from this area and bending west into NC/VA. This might be a better suited question for Larrywx, but I am curious to know are they typically strengthening or weakening bending to the west into NC/VA?

From the above comment

[tropicwatch]

Appears to be still moving wsw, center is well below 25N approaching 24N it looks like..

[Alyono]

I am curious to know the analogs of hurricanes coming up from this area and bending west into NC/VA. This might be a better suited question for Larrywx, but I am curious to know are they typically strengthening or weakening bending to the west into NC/VA?

Dean in 1983 http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

This hook track is not unprecedented

[Ivanhater]

Ahh, Dean looks like a good one.

[TimeZone]

Western side still doesn't look very impressive. Convection looks flat, almost like somebody came down and squashed it. Also good news that the NHC is forecasting this thing to weaken at an extremely rapid pace before landfall. It certainly doesn't appear to be undergoing RI yet to my naked eyes which is also good news.

[AutoPenalti]

Andrew



Betsy

[cfltrib]

The overall shape of the storm seems to be moving west, but the center is wobbling southward in this series:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

[ronjon]

Isabel of 2003 I think might end up being the closest analog.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2003/ISABEL/track_s.gif

[1900hurricane]

Deeper convection in the process of wrapping around the northern semicircle.

[fci]

I am curious to know the analogs of hurricanes coming up from this area and bending west into NC/VA. This might be a better suited question for Larrywx, but I am curious to know are they typically strengthening or weakening bending to the west into NC/VA?

Dean in 1983 http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

This hook track is not unprecedented

I thought Jeremy's example of Hanna was spot on. A little further east and south of where Joaquin is pretty close.

[emeraldislenc]

Just very impressive but scary as well.

[xironman]

Western side still doesn't look very impressive. Convection looks flat, almost like somebody came down and squashed it. Also good news that the NHC is forecasting this thing to weaken at an extremely rapid pace before landfall. It certainly doesn't appear to be undergoing RI yet to my naked eyes which is also good news.

I am not seeing what you are seeing

[chaser1]

Western side still doesn't look very impressive. Convection looks flat, almost like somebody came down and squashed it. Also good news that the NHC is forecasting this thing to weaken at an extremely rapid pace before landfall. It certainly doesn't appear to be undergoing RI yet to my naked eyes which is also good news.

Really? Perhaps we're discussing different hurricanes from different ocean basins? My take on Joaquin's overall appearance is that it is well on its way to a Cat. 2 as early as later tonight.

Furthermore, the NHC discussion not only was very clear to indicate that confidence was very low regarding Joaquin's future track and speed of motion, but that such details could have huge ramifications regarding the potential impact that the storm could have if/when making landfall.

Stated in the discussion was:
"...the intensity forecast calls for
Joaquin to peak as a major hurricane in about 72 hours, and it is possible it could be stronger than currently forecast..." AND
"...Confidence in the details of the track forecast late in the
period remains low, since the environmental steering currents are
complex and the model guidance is inconsistent. A wide range of
outcomes is possible, from a direct impact of a major hurricane
along the U.S. east coast to a track of Joaquin out to sea away from
the coast.."

[psyclone]

What an impressive (and scary) system taking shape. another example that a slow season does not=no season/threats. Wishing all the best for folks up there. these areas have already taken a protracted pounding this past week.

[TimeZone]

Everytime this thing tries to expand it's heaviest convection to the Western side the cloud tops warm significantly. It's pretty obvious on that loop you posted as well. It's gaining strength I didn't deny that but I think it'll continue to gain strength at a more moderate pace. Shear will also increase as this thing gains latitude. Conditions right now are likely as good as they're going to get for this thing to intensify.

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[Alyono]

and it will interact with a negatively tilted trough which may produce a triple outflow channel