ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

[TheProfessor]

I think $100,000 was generous. Last I heard was 220k. Thats why model sites like accuweather and wxbell exist so they can spread out the cost with subscriptions.

I believe I get Accuweathers models free here at my college's Atmospheric Science program. I should be able to check that because having full access to the Euro could come in handy the next few days.

[TheProfessor]

12z HWRF down to 944 mb in 27 hours.

[LarryWx]

12Z UK further SW US hit vs 0Z UK US: NC Outer Banks

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet ... 6_0000.gif

[Alyono]

CMC near NC/SC Border

[ronjon]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 17m17 minutes ago  Pennsylvania, USA
As far as modeling, this will be a major victory for the US model if ECMWF backs down. Has been a rare occurrence in past( big picture)

When does the new euro run?

Who gives a hoot JB - let's all hope for model consensus so people can start to prepare!

[JtSmarts]

I don't think he'll come our way but I'm not that comfortable with models getting closer to SC. I definitely don't want a catastrophic flood.

[tailgater]

I dont think I'd feel to comfortable if I lived in Fla.

[emeraldislenc]

That shift does not sound good for my part of NC

[cycloneye]

Levi says suspect run what 12z HWRF run shows.

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 4m4 minutes ago
Really strange physics going on in 12Z HWRF. Dynamic drying in NE eyewall w/ mesoscale pressure falls. Looks suspect

[TheProfessor]

Levi says suspect run what 12z HWRF run shows.

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 4m4 minutes ago
Really strange physics going on in 12Z HWRF. Dynamic drying in NE eyewall w/ mesoscale pressure falls. Looks suspect

I was noticing that it would go down the 940 mb the back up to 942 mb then down to 939 mb and up again 942 mb, I'm not sure if that's what he's talking about though.

[LarryWx]

Yesterday's 12Z JMA hr 96: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _atl_5.png

Today's 12Z JMA hr 72: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _atl_4.png

Translation: today's 12Z JMA has Joaquin ~150 miles south of yesterday's 12Z JMA for same time. Almost all upper level features all around are 100-200 miles further SW. Translation: consistent with threat on US being further and further SW in the SE US.

Yesterday's 12Z JMA was a major outlier since it hit lower SC:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _atl_6.png

This lower SC hit had been the only run of any major model that had gone that far SW hitting the US. All other hits were NC northward. Today's JMA US destination has still not been released on this site. But it is liable to be another south outlier being that its 72 hour map has Joaquin and upper level features either S or SW of yesterday's run.

Is JMA by chance a model that needs to be paid attention to being that it may be ahead of the other models in trending SW?

[Bocadude85]

I wonder how much farther SW Joaquin would need to get to bring South Carolina/Georgia into play?

[hurricaneCW]

I don't think Joaquin moving further south correlates well with a further SW landfall and it actually supports what the Euro did. The slower and further south it goes could allow the block to weaken/shift more by the time it starts moving north.

[LarryWx]

I don't think Joaquin moving further south correlates well with a further SW landfall and it actually supports what the Euro did. The slower and further south it goes could allow the block to weaken/shift more by the time it starts moving north.

The 12Z GFS vs the 6Z GFS seemed to suggest that, however. Regardless, it is not a black and white correlation whichever way it is..

[tolakram]

12Z Euro run starts at ~ 1:40PM

[Weatherwatcher98]

12Z Euro run starts at ~ 1:40PM

Thanks and Thanks Larry

[emeraldislenc]

Well the NHC shift the projected path to the west at 5 pm.?

[angelwing]

I do not like where I see this headed...cripe I know it won't be a Sandy (thank goodness)but it is reminding me of Agnes

[Weatherwatcher98]

I do not like where I see this headed...cripe I know it won't be a Sandy (thank goodness)but it is reminding me of Agnes

I believe I saw the watermark for Agnes At
Knoebels In PA My last visit up there...Scary if that were to Verify

[tolakram]

12Z Euro init