ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

Though i'm not overly confident on the forecasted timing of Joaquin to begin its (generally) northward turn, but I could easily see it pulling a small counter clockwise turn, perhaps "ala Betsy in reverse", prior to Joaquin's abrupt turn to the north, following a slow steady march to the WSW. If and when that happens, that's when we'll really start seeing everyone running from the hills (well, in that case.... perhaps running toward the hills might be more applicable LOL)

[crimi481]

Watching clouds clearing out in a huge widening circle around the storm- extends more west in Gulf than before
Also see that the whole storm system is moving S.W. at a steady clip. (not just the center of storm)
Its hard to imagine the ultra sharp turn (on a dime) to the north - rather a more gradual turn.
I wonder if the math has been done - if the digging Trough is located further west in the gulf?

I am not a Pro - and do not claim to be one.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-bd.html

[xironman]

What is cool is that you have Pacific moisture going over the gulf and feeding into this. So Nino

[Bocadude85]

Betsy looks like a decent short term analog with that SW dive.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like the clouds nw of Cuba are moving around a high and not streaming ne like the clouds in the center of the gulf.

[summersquall]

Looks like an eye may be starting to take shape. Gheck 2K visible Bahames loop.


http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

[Hammy]

What's the reason for the odd wind-pressure relationship? I think Isaac was the only other Cat 1 that I've seen with such low pressure that wasn't transitioning in the north Atlantic.

[Bocadude85]

Has Joaquin sped up a little? He looks to be approaching his 0Z forecast point already.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/flash-vis-long.html

[summersquall]

[LarryWx]

What's the reason for the odd wind-pressure relationship? I think Isaac was the only other Cat 1 that I've seen with such low pressure that wasn't transitioning in the north Atlantic.

Hammy,
I'd say lower than normal surrounding surface pressures is one factor. Look at how far out in all directions is the 1008 mb isobar. There are no nearby sfc highs. All of this is consistent with slow motion.

[EquusStorm]

Alex in 2010 was sub-960 as a category one. Peaking of course in the 940s in the Gulf as a two.

[tolakram]

30 frame live loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-73&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray

big picture

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-73&info=vis&zoom=4&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray

Looks to my untrained eye that shear is about non existent and the flow north of the storm should start aiding the northern outflow.

[Bocadude85]

What's the reason for the odd wind-pressure relationship? I think Isaac was the only other Cat 1 that I've seen with such low pressure that wasn't transitioning in the north Atlantic.

Hammy,
I'd say lower than normal surrounding surface pressures is one factor.

Pressures are definitely lower then normal in the surrounding area. Our current pressure reading here in Southeast Florida is 29.78 in (1008.6 mb)

[Hammy]

Has Joaquin sped up a little? He looks to be approaching his 0Z forecast point already.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/flash-vis-long.html

Could be moving slightly faster, maybe reaching that point a few hours earlier. The eye seems fairly large though so it may not be as close as it looks either.

[chaser1]

Watching clouds clearing out in a huge widening circle around the storm- extends more west in Gulf than before
Also see that the whole storm system is moving S.W. at a steady clip. (not just the center of storm)
Its hard to imagine the ultra sharp turn (on a dime) to the north - rather a more gradual turn.
I wonder if the math has been done - if the digging Trough is located further west in the gulf?

I am not a Pro - and do not claim to be one.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-bd.html

I had also noticed as well, how the overall ridging throughout the Caribbean appeared to be building westward all the way to Yucatan. I suppose the entire premise of such a sudden turn to the north, would be a pretty sharp change in the steering flow. You bring up nuances that are reasonable to consider. Even if the evolution of a strong cut-off low were to materialize as forecast, significant implications on ultimate track and intensity could occur if the cut-off low were to develop later then progged. Also, if this low were to develop but with an even greater positive tilt than expected, such might indicate a weaker trough or stronger ridging beneath it. Another obvious factor would simply be whether this cut-off were to develop a bit further east or further west.

Whether El Nino is causing an unusual impact on larger scale atmospheric conditions, ultimately affecting the dynamic evolution of regional weather features or perhaps someone just spilled Pepsi over all of the Global and Regional model computers..., there's just little doubt that mid to long range forecasting seems to have become somewhat less reliable (at least as such applies to tropical development).

[tolakram]

When you see Joaquin and the 99L swirl it really brings into contrast how being in the right place at the right time is so important and something that can happen in ANY season.

[chaser1]

What's the reason for the odd wind-pressure relationship? I think Isaac was the only other Cat 1 that I've seen with such low pressure that wasn't transitioning in the north Atlantic.

Hammy,
I'd say lower than normal surrounding surface pressures is one factor. Look at how far out in all directions is the 1008 mb isobar. There are no nearby sfc highs. All of this is consistent with slow motion.

I suppose it just comes down to the overall gradient (or lack thereof)

[Weatherwatcher98]

Watching clouds clearing out in a huge widening circle around the storm- extends more west in Gulf than before
Also see that the whole storm system is moving S.W. at a steady clip. (not just the center of storm)
Its hard to imagine the ultra sharp turn (on a dime) to the north - rather a more gradual turn.
I wonder if the math has been done - if the digging Trough is located further west in the gulf?

I am not a Pro - and do not claim to be one.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-bd.html

I had also noticed as well, how the overall ridging throughout the Caribbean appeared to be building westward all the way to Yucatan. I suppose the entire premise of such a sudden turn to the north, would be a pretty sharp change in the steering flow. You bring up nuances that are reasonable to consider. Even if the evolution of a strong cut-off low were to materialize as forecast, significant implications on ultimate track and intensity could occur if the cut-off low were to develop later then progged. Also, if this low were to develop but with an even greater positive tilt than expected, such might indicate a weaker trough or stronger ridging beneath it. Another obvious factor would simply be whether this cut-off were to develop a bit further east or further west.

Whether El Nino is causing an unusual impact on larger scale atmospheric conditions, ultimately affecting the dynamic evolution of regional weather features or perhaps someone just spilled Pepsi over all of the Global and Regional model computers..., there's just little doubt that mid to long range forecasting seems to have become somewhat less reliable (at least as such applies to tropical development).

I agree 100% This is one of the most Unreliable years model wise with some systems I have ever seen. It used to be so cut and dry. I would love to be a fly on the wall at the National Hurricane Center.....

[Ivanhater]

I see a lot of guests out there. Please take the time to register and join the S2K Family!

[chaser1]

When you see Joaquin and the 99L swirl it really brings into contrast how being in the right place at the right time is so important and something that can happen in ANY season.

Winning post of the day! So so true. "General conditions" applies to the broad picture, but has so little to do with those brief moments in time when looking at a span of time that lasts for several months.