EPAC: INVEST 94E

[cycloneye]

EP, 94, 2015093012, , BEST, 0, 107N, 1187W, 20, 1009, DB

A broad area of low pressure has formed about 1000 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
weekend while the low drifts northward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP942015  09/30/15  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    22    24    26    28    35    41    43    43    44    44    46    46
V (KT) LAND       20    22    24    26    28    35    41    43    43    44    44    46    46
V (KT) LGE mod    20    20    21    21    22    24    26    29    31    31    32    33    34
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        12    11     8     6    10    12     2    10    11     6     6     5     8
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     3     0     0     0    -3    -5    -1    -1    -6    -3     0     3     0
SHEAR DIR        357     7    34    31    27    48   183   218   229   212   216   207   235
SST (C)         29.2  29.2  29.2  29.2  29.3  29.4  29.4  29.4  29.4  29.3  29.1  29.1  29.3
POT. INT. (KT)   154   155   155   155   156   157   156   155   156   156   154   155   157
200 MB T (C)   -52.0 -51.8 -51.3 -51.9 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     7     8     8     9     9    10     9    10     9    10     9
700-500 MB RH     73    69    71    70    69    64    60    55    53    49    48    45    44
MODEL VTX (KT)     0  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    48    55    59    65    63    68    53    63    63    63    44    31    39
200 MB DIV        87    87    94    96    83    74     4     4   -16    14     4    -1    10
700-850 TADV       1     0     0    -1     0    -1     0    -2     0    -1    -2    -2     0
LAND (KM)       1641  1644  1650  1657  1667  1653  1643  1667  1727  1826  1965  2111  2276
LAT (DEG N)     10.7  11.0  11.3  11.6  11.9  12.8  13.5  13.7  13.5  13.0  12.3  11.8  11.4
LONG(DEG W)    118.7 119.2 119.7 120.2 120.7 121.6 122.4 123.0 123.6 124.4 125.5 126.9 128.6
STM SPEED (KT)     5     6     6     6     6     6     4     3     4     6     7     8     9
HEAT CONTENT      37    34    30    27    25    23    24    26    25    22    20    19    20

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/  7      CX,CY:  -3/ -5
  T-12 MAX WIND:  15            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  393  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  19.2 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  74.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   2.   7.  15.  23.  30.  35.  38.  40.  42.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   5.   6.   6.   7.   7.   8.   9.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   1.   2.   4.   5.   3.   0.  -2.  -4.  -6.  -8.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -6.  -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -3.  -4.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   4.   6.   8.  15.  21.  23.  23.  24.  24.  26.  26.

   ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST     09/30/15  12 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.8
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   9.4 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.8
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 135.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  19.2 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.6
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  30.6 Range:  3.6 to  75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.3
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  89.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.5
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  62.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.2
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  76.2 Range: 57.6 to  96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/ -0.1
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    34% is   2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    26% is   3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    18% is   3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    13% is   3.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[Extratropical94]

1. A broad area of low pressure about 1000 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the weekend while the low drifts
northward or northeastward. Upper-level winds could become less
favorable for development by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[Kingarabian]

Basin crosser?

[cycloneye]

Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized since
yesterday in association with a low pressure system located about
1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions are gradually becoming more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next couple of days while the low moves slowly
northward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[cycloneye]

There has been little change with the organization of a broad area
of low pressure located a little more than 1000 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental
conditions are gradually becoming more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple
of days while the low moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU OCT 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become less
organized since yesterday. However, environmental conditions are
still forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in a few days while the low moves
slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Forecaster Blake

[Kingarabian]

GFS shows this coming really close to Hawaii, I believe.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU OCT 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become less
organized since yesterday. However, environmental conditions are
still forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in a few days while the low moves
slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI OCT 2 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be somewhat conducive for development, and a tropical
depression could form in a few days while the low moves slowly
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Extratropical94]

1. A broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 1200 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive, and gradual
development is possible while the system moves slowly northeastward
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[cycloneye]

A broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 1100 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive, and
gradual development is possible while the system moves slowly
northward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[cycloneye]

A broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 1050 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
While some gradual development is possible, environmental conditions
are expected to become less favorable during the next few days while
this system moves northeastward at about 5 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent