ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

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windnrain
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#521 Postby windnrain » Wed Sep 30, 2015 12:51 pm

We have a pro met on our subreddit, /r/tropicalweather, who is part of the NOAA - says that the 1/3 of the ECMWF ensemble takes it out to sea, 2/3 take it along the coast or inland.
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#522 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Sep 30, 2015 12:53 pm

Just my personal opinion right here, but I would bet the 12z Euro folds to the GFS. When all the other "mid-major" (lol) models agree with the GFS pretty much, I just don't see it holding tight. If we do reach a consensus at least the alarms can start sounding big time this afternoon and get the public fully aware of this situation. We shall see.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#523 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 30, 2015 12:53 pm

24h
Image
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#524 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 12:55 pm

tolakram wrote:24h
Image
Diving South :double: :eek:
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#525 Postby windnrain » Wed Sep 30, 2015 12:55 pm

Very curious to see if the guy from /r/tropicalweather is right - if so, the Euro is going to rub the NE coast or go inland.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#526 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 30, 2015 12:56 pm

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 4m4 minutes ago
ECMWF 12z init & 6-hr forecast 9-mb lower (stronger) than prev 00z forecast at same time.
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#527 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 30, 2015 12:59 pm

well thats an interesting dive south..
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#528 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:00 pm

In the Bahamas at 30 hours (weatherbell maps). Furthest south yet IMO.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#529 Postby boca » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:00 pm

Meanwhile the storm is still heading towards Florida which is not in the equation
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#530 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:01 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:well thats an interesting dive south..
That's Just Crazy!!!. I though I was seeing things. Pretty soon Cuba will have watches :lol: :lol:
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#531 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:02 pm

48h
Image
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#532 Postby windnrain » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:03 pm

That's almost to Cuba O.O
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#533 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:03 pm

heading due north between 42 and 48 hours.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#534 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:03 pm

tolakram wrote:48h
Image
Stalled??
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#535 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:04 pm

tolakram wrote:heading due north between 42 and 48 hours.
oh ok :D
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#536 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:05 pm

Looking like 955MB at 48 hours (Weatherbell high res)
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#537 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:05 pm

tolakram wrote:heading due north between 42 and 48 hours.



if you check here its due west.. about to turn..

now in the middle of the central bahamas 949mb

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=199
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#538 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:07 pm

cant believe how far south it goes...
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#539 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:08 pm

Wow, looks to be heading NE at 72 hrs now...
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#540 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:08 pm

Heading NE between 54 and 60, 954MB
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