ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS 18z is at 5:30PM EDT

[chaser1]

12Z JMA gives Beaufort to Charleston corridor 12" of rain fwiw. Cut that in half and that obviously would still be a major event:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... n_us_7.png

This represents about a 100 mile SW trend since yesterday's 12Z JMA run for the same timeframe.

If SEGaBob and Jax as well as others in those areas are reading this, I think this as well as the continued SW trend of the models since yesterday as well as actual Joaquin movement further south than progged is a signal that the all clear can't yet be given to you for potential major impacts from this. At the least, it looks like there's a good bit more uncertainty than it appeared early yesterday. If you'll recall my reply to SeGaBob who asked about potential impacts to him. I had said basically the chances were very low since no model had anything close and none showed a strong enough steering high to the north to bring it NW into those areas. Now with these two JMA runs as well as the SW trend of model consensus, I'm not so sure there won't end up being a steering high to possibly bring it NW into or near your areas. Until the model consensus' SW trend stops, I won't have a lot of confidence. So, stay abreast!

Well, the biggest wild card is the possibility of Joaquin pumping the ridge that is currently steering it to the southwest. I know gatorcane and.I have discussed this possibilty since yesterday. I have seen intense hurricanes pump a riidge, as if it is creating its own environment. I will say this Larry. If the southwest movement is still occuring 24 hours from the time of this post, then we will know for sure thst Joaquin is pumping the ridge imo. If that turns out to be the case, then everyone on the U.S. East Coast will really need to stay vigilant. This is because a continued SW motion over time will causr the turn northward to be closer to the U.S.East Coast on Joaquin's approach. Definitely a plausible scenario that we must watch for very closely.

Even on a "no-hit" but close approach would just put that many more in the position of potentially feeling some affects from the hurricane, even if primarily associated with heavy surf conditions, higher tides, localized flooding, and beach erosion. At a minimum a track closer to the CONUS would cause a bit more of a scare as the storm simply draws closer than what one would want. As it is, it is no doubt "spooky" to all those in S. Florida who couldn't be all to happy to see a strengthening hurricane approaching from the east. In spite of a fairly NHC's fairly confident short term forecast, it is not unreasonable for many there to just "not believe it until they see it", when it comes to believing the "all clear" applies to them.

[Steve]

As other have said, it sucks for the NHC being possibly within a 5 day landfall to have a difference between an often top performing model likely to cause some windy beach days and erosion vs. life/limb/property/destruction. 00Z Euro will be 1:50am my time. I'm thinking there are a lot of posters on the mid-Atlantic Coast that will be checking those iphones from bed. Tough, tough dilemma.

[Weatherwatcher98]

As other have said, it sucks for the NHC being possibly within a 5 day landfall to have a difference between an often top performing model likely to cause some windy beach days and erosion vs. life/limb/property/destruction. 00Z Euro will be 1:50am my time. I'm thinking there are a lot of posters on the mid-Atlantic Coast that will be checking those iphones from bed. Tough, tough dilemma.

Crazy from the "accuracy" and "certainty" of years past

[BensonTCwatcher]

As other have said, it sucks for the NHC being possibly within a 5 day landfall to have a difference between an often top performing model likely to cause some windy beach days and erosion vs. life/limb/property/destruction. 00Z Euro will be 1:50am my time. I'm thinking there are a lot of posters on the mid-Atlantic Coast that will be checking those iphones from bed. Tough, tough dilemma.

Yep, Watching the models more now each run than we have in a few years. Tough track and setup here. The drill starts tomorrow and ramps up Friday.

[TheProfessor]

is it possible that this storm does a mixture of the Euro and the GFS? could it possibly be pulled to the Northeast a bit and then get trapped under the ridge and get pushed to the Northwest?

[PTrackerLA]

Looking at what I can see in the Euro ensembles so far on Weatherbell, there are several strong looking hits from SC to the VA border up through the 3-7 day time frame. After that some continue to move towards the NE while others are remaining/moving further offshore.

So I looked at the entire 50 panel runs days 3-7. Counting each landfall. I came up with 27 out of 50 impacting the United States.

The most interesting take away from this, is there were several that looked just like the "GFS and friends" solutions. Does this make things any clearer? Not really but shows me there are still plenty of options on the table regarding future Euro runs.

I'm not a scientist but I'm rethinking my college major many years ago, that was fun!

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Latest ECMWF ensembles made a big jump to the east toward the op run. Until the southwest movement ends, I think the EC may be correct. A further south hurricane will likely feel a stronger influence to move east.

And if it get's to far south it will not feel the weakness at all, then we will really have an issue.

[xironman]

This is funny. From the washington post METs.

Capital Weather Gang Retweeted
Gary Szatkowski ‏@GarySzatkowski 1h1 hour ago
Lot of talk about Euro model regarding #Joaquin forecast track. I remember Euro really nailed a late January snowstorm. Oh wait. It didn't.

Snow and tropics are completely different animals. I would be embarrassed to tweet that

Meh, he is speaking from a mid-latitude perspective. By the time the storm is there it is not the tropics anymore...

[xironman]

Latest ECMWF ensembles made a big jump to the east toward the op run. Until the southwest movement ends, I think the EC may be correct. A further south hurricane will likely feel a stronger influence to move east.

And if it get's to far south it will not feel the weakness at all, then we will really have an issue.

The ensemble mean has the low off the coast of SC, so there has to be tons of disagreement with the members. Did someone post the "big jump"?

[Rgv20]

Taking a quick look at the 12zECMWF Ensembles and the majority agree with the operational ECMWF thru 72 hours.....of note there are a few ensemble members that make landfall in 72 hours in South/North Carolina scary scenario!

[ronjon]

Looking at what I can see in the Euro ensembles so far on Weatherbell, there are several strong looking hits from SC to the VA border up through the 3-7 day time frame. After that some continue to move towards the NE while others are remaining/moving further offshore.

So I looked at the entire 50 panel runs days 3-7. Counting each landfall. I came up with 27 out of 50 impacting the United States.

The most interesting take away from this, is there were several that looked just like the "GFS and friends" solutions. Does this make things any clearer? Not really but shows me there are still plenty of options on the table regarding future Euro runs.

I'm not a scientist but I'm rethinking my college major many years ago, that was fun!

Great observations Ptracker! Sure u didn't at least take one science course?

[windnrain]

2 pages ago I posted that I had access to the actual ensemble.

The members severely disagree. The main Euro goes OTS, but there are several members that bring it into Virginia/North Carolina.

[ronjon]

Maybe the ECM ensembles are beginning to show the shift to the OTS solution - I have no dog in this fight either way. But with the low pressure along the SC coast from the ensembles and 27 out of 50 still an EC impact - still a huge question whether the operational run is a trend setter or out to lunch. Hopefully the sonde data and G-IV data will bring the 0z suite of models into consensus.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I don't know if it's the shear, El Nino, or what but in my last 20 years of cane tracking I have never seen modeling do so bad. Including the 2 go toos(GFS and EURO). Have feeling were not done playing target practice with Joaquin either.

[Weatherwatcher98]

I don't know if it's the shear, El Nino, or what but in my last 20 years of cane tracking I have never seen modeling do so bad. Including the 2 go toos(GFS and EURO). Have feeling were not done playing target practice with Joaquin either.

Totally agree

[Steve]

is it possible that this storm does a mixture of the Euro and the GFS? could it possibly be pulled to the Northeast a bit and then get trapped under the ridge and get pushed to the Northwest?

I think there is a lot still on the table. You have a lot of variables including 99L, sharp ridge moving onto Joaquin, Western Gulf Low; El Nino inspired moisture fetch from the Pacific Ocean up through the East Coast; remnants of Ida; a strong cold front with a strong high behind it; etc. We're probably not done with surprises which of course is why so many of us get excited tracking systems. Once you think you understand something, you get unpredictability.

[xironman]

I don't know if it's the shear, El Nino, or what but in my last 20 years of cane tracking I have never seen modeling do so bad. Including the 2 go toos(GFS and EURO). Have feeling were not done playing target practice with Joaquin either.

9 out of 10 models agree...

[Weatherwatcher98]

This is funny. From the washington post METs.

Capital Weather Gang Retweeted
Gary Szatkowski ‏@GarySzatkowski 1h1 hour ago
Lot of talk about Euro model regarding #Joaquin forecast track. I remember Euro really nailed a late January snowstorm. Oh wait. It didn't.

Snow and tropics are completely different animals. I would be embarrassed to tweet that

Meh, he is speaking from a mid-latitude perspective. By the time the storm is there it is not the tropics anymore...

Ok...

[xironman]

is it possible that this storm does a mixture of the Euro and the GFS? could it possibly be pulled to the Northeast a bit and then get trapped under the ridge and get pushed to the Northwest?

I think there is a lot still on the table. You have a lot of variables including 99L, sharp ridge moving onto Joaquin, Western Gulf Low; El Nino inspired moisture fetch from the Pacific Ocean up through the East Coast; remnants of Ida; a strong cold front with a strong high behind it; etc. We're probably not done with surprises which of course is why so many of us get excited tracking systems. Once you think you understand something, you get unpredictability.

The booooggggusss low off the south carolina coast at 144 is a clear indication the model is out to lunch.