Texas Fall-2015

[TeamPlayersBlue]

How far below normal of rain are you in North Texas? Summer is over now so i expect you should start getting rain events soon.

[gboudx]

Last I saw on TV, majority of DFW is not below normal. But not much above normal anymore either.

[ravyrn]

Will DFW hit 59 Thursday night?

[dhweather]

I just pulled this from FWD's site - their July-September rain totals are double mine.

[dhweather]

[dhweather]

12Z GFS Meteogram offers a tiny bit of hope for rain 7 days out, which beats the 00Z run of NO rain 7 days out.

[Brent]

Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 53. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. <I can't wait

Also:

Seeing a lot of hints about a rain event next Thu-Sat timeframe on the weather apps... here's the 0z GFS:

[weatherdude1108]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 011035
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
535 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PART
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH
AND OUT OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO PUSH FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO OUR AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TODAYS
HIGHS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND MID 90S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-37 AND ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST 5
TO 10 MPH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

ON FRIDAY...A NEW SURGE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR COMES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE 40S
AND 50S FOR A GORGEOUS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...EXPECT COOL MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY
LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...WHERE TEMPS
COULD DROP TO THE 50S AND AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S OVER SOME
LOCATIONS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 80S.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION LATE MONDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
TUESDAY. THEN...IT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEK. LITTLE BY LITTLE...THE GFS
AND ECM GUIDANCE ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT THE GFS CONTINUES
TO BE THE FASTEST OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
COUPLED WITH A COLD FRONT COULD BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. IT IS TO EARLY TO TELL
ABOUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS FAR OUT...HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT
STORM TOTALS OF OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER COUPLE OF PLACES BASED ON
THE WHOLE PICTURE AND POSSIBLY MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THE LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

[dhweather]

Looking like we will get a few days of cooler weather, and then the ridge of death jr decides to remind us that its not leaving just yet. If the rains materialize next Friday, that would be really nice and welcomed.

[Tireman4]

HGX AFD:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
409 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WELCOME TO OCTOBER WHERE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO ACHIEVE CURRENT AUTUMN STANDARDS...GORGEOUS CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES UNDER STARRY/SUNNY
SKIES. COOL WEEKEND MORNING TEMPERATURE READINGS WILL FALL INTO
THE AVERAGE MIDDLE 50S/AROUND 60 F UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY BREEZES WITH DAYS WARMING INTO THE MEAN LOWER 80S.
YESTERDAY`S ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON WARMTH (MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WERE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK AS...WITH A WEAK MORNING COLD FRONT PASSAGE DOWN THE TEXAS
COASTLINE...A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS HAS DESCENDED
INTO AREA. TODAY`S WARMTH WILL BE A DEGREE OF TWO ABOVE NORMAL
BUT...AS THE BULK OF THE DRIEST AIR REACHES EASTERN TEXAS TOMORROW
...SUBSEQUENT DAYS WILL REGISTER BELOW NORMAL MAXIMA/MINIMA IN
RELATION TO EARLY OCTOBER NORMS. WEEKEND INTO EARLY WEEK WEATHER
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY CENTRAL CONUS RIDGING PLANTED WITHIN A
NATIONAL OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN. THE LARGE NEAR 1040 MB SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL EXPAND SOUTHWESTWARD OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY OR TUESDAY...PROVIDING A GENTLE
OFFSHORE BREEZE. THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO AN
APPROACHING WESTERN TROUGH GOING INTO MID-WEEK. NWP SOLUTIONS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING AN TUESDAY ROCKY MOUNTAIN TROUGH
INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS/TX PANHANDLE BY EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
SWING THE MID-LOWER LEVEL STEERING FLOW ONSHORE INTO MID-WEEK AND
INCREASE HUMIDITY/CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE WEEK. AFTERNOONS WILL
GENERALLY STAY IN THE MIDDLE 80 REALM BUT THERE WILL BE A
NOTICEABLE UPTICK IN SUBSEQUENT MORNING TEMPERATURES...LOW TO MID
60S BACK-TO- WORK READINGS WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO LATE WEEK
REGIONAL LOWER 70S WITH MORE HUMIDITY BROUGHT ON BY THOSE
SOUTHERLY BREEZES. NIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK...
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES THURSDAY. MODELS ARE DEPICTING A SHARP
ENOUGH MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS
FRIDAY TO SUGGEST AT LEAST MODERATE-HIGH END CHANCE POPS TO CLOSE
OUT THE WORK WEEK. BUT THIS INCLEMENT WEATHER WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL
DAY 8...THUS ENJOY THIS SLICE OF FALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
31

&&

.MARINE...
SURGE OF DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THIS OCCURS AND MAY NEED TO PULL
OUT THE CAUTION FLAGS DURING THAT TIME. SPEED DIMINISH INTO THE 10-15KT
RANGE OVER THE WEEKEND. MIGHT BE UNTIL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNTIL WE
SEE A RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
47



Today Sunny, with a high near 87. North wind 5 to 10 mph.
Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 61. Northeast wind around 5 mph.
Friday Sunny, with a high near 81. North wind 5 to 10 mph.
Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 55. North wind around 5 mph.
Saturday Sunny, with a high near 81. North wind around 5 mph.
Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 59.
Sunday Sunny, with a high near 82.
Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 62.
Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 84.
Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.
Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 88.
Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67.
Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 88.

[Ntxw]

DFW records its 5th warmest September on record at 82.7F similar to 2013's 82.4F. This record was held up by mostly lows averaging in the 70s similar to averages in late summer vs early fall

[gboudx]

I'm so looking forward to running the 5k on Saturday morning with temps in the upper 50's to near 60 at race time. I feel a personal record coming up. Weekend looks spectacular.

[Tireman4]

I'm so looking forward to running the 5k on Saturday morning with temps in the upper 50's to near 60 at race time. I feel a personal record coming up. Weekend looks spectacular.

20 for 5K?

[Tireman4]

I'm so looking forward to running the 5k on Saturday morning with temps in the upper 50's to near 60 at race time. I feel a personal record coming up. Weekend looks spectacular.

[texas1836]

Nice little rain here in McKinney, not much (.42"), but still nice.

[Brent]

We have raindrops. Alert we have raindrops.

[Ralph's Weather]

My NWS forecast:

This Afternoon Partly sunny, with a high near 84. North wind 10 to 15 mph.
Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. Northeast wind around 5 mph.
Friday Sunny, with a high near 79. North wind 5 to 15 mph.
Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 51. Northeast wind around 5 mph.
Saturday Sunny, with a high near 80. North wind 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 56.
Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.
Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 59.

I expect some 40s appear likely with the dry post frontal air in East Texas.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

We have raindrops. Alert we have raindrops.

I had to use my windshield wipers at lunch!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The GFS and Euro have different solutions at around 7 days out. That bowling ball on the Euro means what for us in Texas? Would that be alot of moisture streaming up from the pacific like in April/May?

[weatherdude1108]

Nice little rain here in McKinney, not much (.42"), but still nice.

I would be ECSTATIC right now with .42" of rain, or better yet, 5.42" of rain.

We have seriously received about 0.2" measurable rain since the end of JUNE at my house. One-inch wide cracks under the mulch about 6 inches deep.

Hoping the tide changes to a more Ninoesque Fall pattern for Texas in the coming two weeks (or less).