ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

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RL3AO
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#721 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:48 pm

0z EPS

Image

12z EPS

Image

Shows the shift east from the Euro ensembles.
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#722 Postby JtSmarts » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:57 pm

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 40m40 minutes ago
Qualitative observation of 12Z EPS: out-to-sea members have Joaquin weaker or smaller, thus unable to enter binary interaction w/ trough.
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TimeZone

#723 Postby TimeZone » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:59 pm

924 MB ... GFS is overdoing the intensity no doubt.
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#724 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:08 pm

Agreed on tidbits, but that site gets stuck in loops a lot for me both highspeed and Mobile. When it works, is one of the best sites.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#725 Postby Jevo » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:10 pm

The HWRF is trying to reshape the coastline with Joaquin... :double:

Image
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#726 Postby ninel conde » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:11 pm

Yikes at the GFDL and HWRF
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#727 Postby Jevo » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:25 pm

Dangit HWRF... Quit being so scary

+72
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+75
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#728 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:27 pm

If that HWRF verifies, Highway 12 will likely be forever washed away.

The strongest storm I know of in that region was Hurricane Helene in 1958, pressure was 933mb (reanalysis has it at 125 kt) just off the NC coast, fortunately stayed just offshore...
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Re:

#729 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:38 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:If that HWRF verifies, Highway 12 will likely be forever washed away.

The strongest storm I know of in that region was Hurricane Helene in 1958, pressure was 933mb (reanalysis has it at 125 kt) just off the NC coast, fortunately stayed just offshore...

Didnt Hazel go through that area?
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Re: Re:

#730 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:46 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:If that HWRF verifies, Highway 12 will likely be forever washed away.

The strongest storm I know of in that region was Hurricane Helene in 1958, pressure was 933mb (reanalysis has it at 125 kt) just off the NC coast, fortunately stayed just offshore...

Didnt Hazel go through that area?


Hazel peaked at 938mb. The other Cat 4 I know of in that region was Hurricane Diana in 1984 (a small storm with a 949mb pressure), but it looped and likely hit its own upwelling, weakening to a Cat 1 at landfall.

18Z GFDL: virtually the same as the HWRF - Cat 3 or 4 near Topsail Beach, NC
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#731 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:46 pm

Large disparity in flight level vs surface winds, 95kt flight level and still barely hurricane winds at surface.

Edit: I thought this was in the discussion thread, please move it
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#732 Postby hurricanehunter69 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:09 pm

ninel conde wrote:Yikes at the GFDL and HWRF

My man Ninel...Whats up! It appears you and Cyclone Mikes forecast of the United States being completely safe from a Hurricane impact is in serious jeopardy...? As is, the forecasts of a completely dead season.
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#733 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:21 pm

Jevo wrote:Dangit HWRF... Quit being so scary

+72
Image

+75
Image



That right there would be devastation. Fran '96 left me homeless for 6 months as I lived on topsail island. Of course, there is a famous poster in the region with Dennis, Bertha, Fran, Bonnie, and Floyd all on one map. If this verifies, Joaquin would beat all those far and away.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#734 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:47 pm

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 16m16 minutes ago  State College, PA
I have not changed our forecast, but see the physical reasons for why the Euro could be right. Not just a matter of model roulette
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#735 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:49 pm

Joe B bowing to the EC and hedging his bet a little. Lmfao
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TheStormExpert

#736 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:49 pm

Fresh off the press, 00z Model Guidance.

00z Track Guidance :darrow:

Image

00z Intensity Guidance :darrow:

Image
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#737 Postby pgoss11 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:55 pm

Yikes! Shifting south!
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Re:

#738 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:57 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Fresh off the press, 00z Model Guidance.

00z Track Guidance :darrow:

[ img]http://i60.tinypic.com/1dtdx.jpg[/img]

00z Intensity Guidance :darrow:

[ img]http://i61.tinypic.com/b4x4hy.jpg[/img]


Thats interpolated stuff from previous model runs. Its only 01z now...none of the 00z models are in yet.
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Re:

#739 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 30, 2015 8:00 pm

pgoss11 wrote:Yikes! Shifting south!


This is my big concern with the delayed turn to the north. The longer Joaquin moves southwest, I think the shift southward mayl continue to increase.
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#740 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 30, 2015 8:01 pm

Holy crap what a sudden shift. :eek:
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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