ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Also remember that was when it was not looking to good. Now we have deeper convection building all over. Could see cat 3 before morning.

[CronkPSU]

still can not believe how close this is to Florida and there is no threat to us....that is a crazy ridge to make it swing north so quickly...hope all remain safe in its path

[MaineWeatherNut]

We are at D-Max now.

D-max is actually in the morning... This is D-Min...

[Hammy]

I think my forecast just busted big time. Will we be getting any overnight flights?

[ozonepete]

We are at D-Max now.

No. DMAX comes much later at night.

[AutoPenalti]

Officially a Cat 2, folks.

[drewschmaltz]

In the past 24 hours I've learned that pressure gradients and differentials are what indicate intensity and not simply low pressures. However, what I am curious about is this:

How is a hurricane affected when the ambient pressure around the storm increases? I would imagine this causes a rapid intensification.

[CrazyC83]

Also remember that was when it was not looking to good. Now we have deeper convection building all over. Could see cat 3 before morning.

If it isn't already (some quads not yet sampled). I think Cat 4 tomorrow, but an early peak means more weakening later perhaps?

[SouthDadeFish]

Also remember that was when it was not looking to good. Now we have deeper convection building all over. Could see cat 3 before morning.

Dare I say you could see cat 3 before recon finishes their mission.

[AutoPenalti]

We are at D-Max now.

No. DMAX comes much later at night.

Sorry I meant that as a question. And what time would that occur exactly?

[Yellow Evan]

In the past 24 hours I've learned that pressure gradients and differentials are what indicate intensity and not simply low pressures. However, what I am curious about is this:

How is a hurricane affected when the ambient pressure around the storm increases? I would imagine this causes a rapid intensification.

Not necessarily. The steepness of the pressure gradient controls the wins.

[TheStormExpert]

We are at D-Max now.

No. DMAX comes much later at night.

Isn't D-Max in the early morning hours, or is that D-Min?

[Miami Storm Tracker]

still can not believe how close this is to Florida and there is no threat to us....that is a crazy ridge to make it swing north so quickly...hope all remain safe in its path

Totally agree with you, it is not often we sit in this position and not be really worried. Everyone to the NE pay attention and be safe.

[SunnyThoughts]

Also remember that was when it was not looking to good. Now we have deeper convection building all over. Could see cat 3 before morning.

Dare I say you could see cat 3 before recon finishes their mission.

Very much a possibility imo.



Please stay tuned to NHC for official updates and information.

[Kingarabian]

[Aric Dunn]

Also remember that was when it was not looking to good. Now we have deeper convection building all over. Could see cat 3 before morning.

Dare I say you could see cat 3 before recon finishes their mission.

Haha i nearly wrote that but decided not to scare yhe natives. Also they only did 2 passes earlier figured they might not stay long.

[TheStormExpert]

Also remember that was when it was not looking to good. Now we have deeper convection building all over. Could see cat 3 before morning.

If it isn't already (some quads not yet sampled). I think Cat 4 tomorrow, but an early peak means more weakening later perhaps?

Could mean slower weakening which would increase the chances of a U.S. Major hurricane hit IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

This recon is a good example of how RI can start as soon as the eye clears.

[RL3AO]

In the past 24 hours I've learned that pressure gradients and differentials are what indicate intensity and not simply low pressures. However, what I am curious about is this:

How is a hurricane affected when the ambient pressure around the storm increases? I would imagine this causes a rapid intensification.

If the ambient pressure increases and everything else stayed exactly the same, then the central pressure of the low would increase but the intensity of the storm would not change (because the gradient didn't change). In reality, if you have a system with high background pressures, this generally means its in an area of sinking/dryer air, so it will be difficult to get thunderstorms and eventually a tropical cyclone.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 010001
AF309 0511A JOAQUIN HDOB 27 20150930
235200 2346N 07246W 6909 02867 9632 +118 //// 231095 112 102 011 05
235230 2345N 07245W 7018 02778 9706 +128 //// 227096 113 096 043 01
235300 2344N 07244W 6973 02857 9746 +116 //// 225097 100 084 041 05
235330 2343N 07242W 6979 02874 9783 +107 +107 224096 101 /// /// 03
235400 2342N 07241W 6962 02918 9790 +103 +103 221083 092 078 021 00
235430 2342N 07241W 6962 02918 9804 +104 +104 227083 085 071 012 00
235500 2339N 07239W 6963 02950 9834 +102 +102 231081 085 070 009 00
235530 2338N 07237W 6963 02959 9828 +105 //// 230076 080 068 007 01
235600 2337N 07236W 6946 02990 9854 +110 +110 234080 083 068 010 00
235630 2336N 07234W 6961 02981 9871 +111 +111 233080 083 056 011 03
235700 2334N 07233W 6971 02984 9886 +106 +106 235070 076 056 013 00
235730 2333N 07232W 6974 02993 9897 +107 +107 234071 076 051 017 03
235800 2332N 07230W 6973 02999 9903 +105 +105 232067 068 051 009 00
235830 2331N 07229W 6956 03025 9913 +102 +102 233067 069 050 008 00
235900 2329N 07228W 6970 03016 9906 +099 //// 233068 070 049 005 01
235930 2328N 07226W 6966 03026 9911 +098 //// 234069 070 049 005 01
000000 2327N 07225W 6966 03029 9918 +099 //// 234067 070 048 007 05
000030 2325N 07223W 6966 03036 9931 +095 //// 237066 067 050 008 01
000100 2324N 07222W 6964 03041 9934 +099 +099 239067 068 052 008 00
000130 2323N 07221W 6970 03037 9940 +100 +100 239069 072 048 008 03
$$
;

113 kt FL, 102 kt SFMR.