ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

[ronjon]

Every single run of the 18z GFS ensembles makes landfall now on the east coast. Will Euro come to its senses on the 00z run?

[TheStormExpert]

Every single run of the 18z GFS ensembles makes landfall now on the east coast. Will Euro come to its senses on the 00z run?

Doubt it, the Euro is a lost cause.

[Hammy]

Euro doesn't use the Gulfstream data as far as I know, and if it's the case that could be the reason for the runs being different from the other models.

[ronjon]

Euro doesn't use the Gulfstream data as far as I know, and if it's the case that could be the reason for the runs being different from the other models.

Hammy I'm sure we share it with the European centre for model development. It's too important not to.

[emeraldislenc]

That is a scary run for us here at Emerald Isle!

[tolakram]

JB had a darn good discussion on WB. He's siding with the GFS but can see how the euro solution can be true and it's killing him, but he's going with what he sees as a usual pattern for how the US gets hit, if it gets hit. He's also openly wondering if bias is creeping into his forecast, can't get much more honest than that.

[ronjon]

Dr Master's indicated in his blog today that the biggest difference between he GFS and ECM forecast was that the GFS had a much stronger upper level low off Newfoundland which presumably pumps up ridging north and northeast of the storm so if this is the case, GIV data won't make a lot of difference.

[gatorcane]

Could you imagine if the ECMWF gets this right and it heads NE out to sea west of Bermuda?

It would certainly regain it's "King Euro" crown once again despite a pretty awful season for the model so far.

There would be some serious criticism over the GFS during the off-season no doubt just like what happened with Sandy in 2012 where the GFS was originally showing an out to sea scenario while the ECMWF accurately showed it turning west into the Northeast United States.

[Steve]

JB had a darn good discussion on WB. He's siding with the GFS but can see how the euro solution can be true and it's killing him, but he's going with what he sees as a usual pattern for how the US gets hit, if it gets hit. He's also openly wondering if bias is creeping into his forecast, can't get much more honest than that.

It's not a usual pattern whatsoever though. It's a once in a generation short cut storm under what he always called a "Ridge Over Troubled Waters" if it hooks west. Or when there is a super strong high behind a "cold" front, you look to the south of it for "mischief." Hey, I followed him for 10-15 years until his then company bought off Santorum and espoused the private sector for weather dissemination over the NWS and NOAA and would have primary rights to use taxpayer funded data to redistribute for profit. Storm2k was in an uproar and it failed. Pwn3d. But I still respect him. However, he still is somewhat hedging his bet there. I'm not being particularly critical, because I want to believe the model consensus too. But like a lot of you, I'd feel more confident with the ecmwf on board with everything else.

[terstorm1012]

I'm the same way Steve, would feel more confident if the Euro popped on board. We'll see what the next runs are!

[capepoint]

Please correct me if I am wrong, but have we not seen the euro take a break from sanity at about the T-4 day mark before, only to come back to reality by about 2 days out? Could be what's happening now with the east track?

[tolakram]

Euro has had mid range errors this year, it seems, but I have no data to back up that casual observation.

[Frank2]

The ongoing SW track is hard to understand completely - it'd be crazy if it crossed Cuba : |

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane ... _track.png

P.S. Another severe test for the models, and so far the are playing catch-up again...

[HurrMark]

Admittedly, the GFS has not done well in the short range. At 00Z yesterday, it was forecasting 'Joaquin' to be at roughly the latitude of St. Lucie County, Florida. It is now below Key West, which the Euro almost nailed. Intensity too, the Euro had a much stronger storm at this point. It was not until 18Z yesterday that the GFS got the position at roughly the right point (but still didn't show the intensity the Euro had). So while I personally have a hard time believing the Euro will win, I don't have much confidence in any of the models at this time.

[blp]

Here are the 12z ensemble plots.

[blp]

This is certainly not the year to be depending on the models. I have no confidence is any of the models.

[tropicwatch]

The ongoing SW track is hard to understand completely - it'd be crazy if it crossed Cuba : |

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane ... _track.png

P.S. Another severe test for the models, and so far the are playing catch-up again...

Nicaragua here he comes, just kidding

[Weatherlover12]

I know I asked this but when is this gonna move N?

I live on the FL east coast & I don't expect this to make landfall but it seems like if it comes close enough we could get rain and wind.

I have friends in the Bahamas who just found out about this today and they're rushing to prepare & I don't want to be caught of guard either. So what's the verdict?

[blp]

Good point by Ryan Maue we should get better output tonight from the models interesting to see how they respond.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 23m23 minutes ago
954 mb recon will help models initialize a much stronger Hurricane #Joaquin at 00z. Like our chances to get clarity on track tonight.

[Blown Away]

The ongoing SW track is hard to understand completely - it'd be crazy if it crossed Cuba : |

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane ... _track.png

P.S. Another severe test for the models, and so far the are playing catch-up again...

I would have placed a large bet against Ike going above 20N/60W and hitting Texas... Thank goodness Jeanne was going out to sea...