ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[abajan]

Looks like we are going to get an HD stream of Joaquin on its current path. Sound is horrible though.

http://www.portnassauwebcam.com/

I'm guessing that's due to the absence of a dead cat cover on the mic. Common problem.

[rickybobby]

As of right now it's 576 miles from Orlando according to wesh 2. It should start turning tomorrow morning.

[ConvergenceZone]

The next Euro run is going to be very interesting. I noticed how in the discussion they mentioned that and I quote,

"Confidence in the details of the forecast after 72 hours remains low, since we have one normally excellent model that keeps Joaquin
far away from the United States east coast."

It will be interesting if the EURO ends up being right and this does indeed go out to sea....Of course it's way to early to say one way or the other.

[Bocadude85]

Well if by tomorrow morning this is still going SW then I'm going to start putting up some shutters, because I can't wait any longer to see if this a Florida threat in some way, shape, or form.

Even if this moves SW longer then forecast I can not see how Joaquin could reach the Florida coast. If anything a continued SW motion would lead to Joaquin heading out to sea after impacting the Bahamas.

Disclaimer:
My posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are of my opinion and as such should NOT be treated as an official forecast. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[terstorm1012]

I'm in the cone. Never a good feeling.

Also this has gone unremarked by many but---notice the forecasted slowing of the storm between Sunday and Monday? This is going to dump an immense amount of rain should it verifies.

On me.

I'm hoping the Euro verifies and hope I don't wake up to see the Euro has joined the rest of the pack.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well if by tomorrow morning this is still going SW then I'm going to start putting up some shutters, because I can't wait any longer to see if this a Florida threat in some way, shape, or form.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


If this even had a slight chance of being a Florida threat, the NHC would be all over it. They know the hell they would get if they didn't mention it otherwise, so I wouldn't worry about it............

[AutoPenalti]

Well if by tomorrow morning this is still going SW then I'm going to start putting up some shutters, because I can't wait any longer to see if this a Florida threat in some way, shape, or form.

Even if this moves SW longer then forecast I can not see how Joaquin could reach the Florida coast. If anything a continued SW motion would lead to Joaquin heading out to sea after impacting the Bahamas.

Disclaimer:
My posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are of my opinion and as such should NOT be treated as an official forecast. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

How would that happen? How far down is that trough?

[tolakram]

If I have to add the disclaimer to a post it's huge. Please do not forget to put a disclaimer on all definitive statements and predictions, it's required.

[Bocadude85]

Well if by tomorrow morning this is still going SW then I'm going to start putting up some shutters, because I can't wait any longer to see if this a Florida threat in some way, shape, or form.

Even if this moves SW longer then forecast I can not see how Joaquin could reach the Florida coast. If anything a continued SW motion would lead to Joaquin heading out to sea after impacting the Bahamas.

Disclaimer:
My posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are of my opinion and as such should NOT be treated as an official forecast. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

How would that happen? How far down is that trough?

The flow over Florida is forecast to be from the Northwest which would send any storm approaching Florida out to sea.

Disclaimer:
My posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are of my opinion and as such should NOT be treated as an official forecast. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[floridasun78]

http://www.portnassauwebcam.com/ their ship at port likely be out soon of their

[LarryWx]

Looks like NHC doesn't see the southerly component to his motion lasting much longer at all.

However, they now fcast it to get down to 23.5 N vs the 5 PM advisory's 23.9 N furthest south point. Will this finally be the last southward adjustment?

[abajan]

Well if by tomorrow morning this is still going SW then I'm going to start putting up some shutters, because I can't wait any longer to see if this a Florida threat in some way, shape, or form.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


If this even had a slight chance of being a Florida threat, the NHC would be all over it. They know the hell they would get if they didn't mention it otherwise, so I wouldn't worry about it............

I could be wrong but it seems like Tolokram is trying to make a point about the necessity of the S2K disclaimer.

[smithtim]

Looks like NHC doesn't see the southerly component to his motion lasting much longer at all.

The motion overall is ???? Could go north like NHC, could go out sea like that one model, or who knows it's forecast to be cat 4 tmrw so maybe that is to big now to get lifted north at all by that weather system dropping down CONUS who knows maybe drifts west???




IMHO tonight's models give us a better clue but we all may get reminded on this one that forecasts & models are really just educated guesses and only time will tell....

[Aric Dunn]

Getting annoying

[ConvergenceZone]

even this this may end up going out to Sea as the normally excellent Euro model suggests, , I still think there's a good chance it may not......








Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Bocadude85]

Looks like NHC doesn't see the southerly component to his motion lasting much longer at all.

However, they now fcast it to get down to 23.5 N vs the 5 PM advisory's 23.9 N furthest south point. Will this finally be the last southward adjustment?

I would think the Southward adjustments would have to be coming to an end. If not then the Euro very well may be right.

[NDG]

The 0z models' runs will be very interesting indeed.

[CrazyC83]

We did get this:

000
URNT12 KNHC 010148
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015
A. 01/01:27:00Z
B. 23 deg 47 min N
073 deg 02 min W
C. 700 mb 2705 m
D. 88 kt
E. 041 deg 16 nm
F. 124 deg 102 kt
G. 040 deg 14 nm
H. 952 mb
I. 13 C / 3053 m
J. 21 C / 3052 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. OPEN N
M. C28
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0511A JOAQUIN OB 19
MAX FL WIND 113 KT 096 / 15 NM 23:52:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 106 KT 225 / 19 NM 01:33:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 075 / 4 KT
;

Pressure now 952, so it has stabilized for a bit.

[CrazyC83]

Eyewall now open per Recon, and pressure stabilized down a tad to 952. (The VDM did come in)

[RDCNY/NJ]

Can't wait for the Euro to be redeemed by tomorrow.