ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#761 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 30, 2015 9:34 pm

GFS 0Z run starts at ~11:25PM, if anyone was wondering. :)
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#762 Postby GeneratorPower » Wed Sep 30, 2015 9:41 pm

tolakram wrote:GFS 12Z run starts at ~11:25PM, if anyone was wondering. :)


I'm sure you mean 00z.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#763 Postby txwatcher91 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 9:41 pm

FWIW, 00z NAM trending towards GFS solution. Just 2 runs ago at 12z the NAM was almost identical to the euro and now inside 48 hours it's shifting towards GFS. This tells me the euro is probably going to adjust west some but who knows its had a mind of its own.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#764 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 30, 2015 9:42 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:
tolakram wrote:GFS 12Z run starts at ~11:25PM, if anyone was wondering. :)


I'm sure you mean 00z.


Yep, thanks :)
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#765 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 30, 2015 9:53 pm

I'm looking at the 6 hour euro plots on Weatherbell from the 12Z run and it appears to be wrong at the moment. It has the storm moving pretty quickly SW until directly over Long Island, then bouncing back due north (just west of Port Nelson) for 12 hours before turning NE. 4 hour loop shows an almost due west movement. Just something to keep an eye on. For the 12Z to be correct Joaquin needs to be over Long Island in about 30 hours.
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#766 Postby windnrain » Wed Sep 30, 2015 10:21 pm

GFS models soon?
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#767 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 30, 2015 10:25 pm

0z GFS init

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#768 Postby windnrain » Wed Sep 30, 2015 10:31 pm

More, more, more!
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#769 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 30, 2015 10:34 pm

Image
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#770 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 30, 2015 10:37 pm

Based on the full res GFS, initialization pressure was at 965 mb.
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Re:

#771 Postby windnrain » Wed Sep 30, 2015 10:38 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Based on the full res GFS, initialization pressure was at 965 mb.


Why initialize it at 965?
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Re: Re:

#772 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 30, 2015 10:39 pm

windnrain wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:Based on the full res GFS, initialization pressure was at 965 mb.


Why initialize it at 965?


Models take in recon data and analyze satellite imagery from what I heard.
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#773 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 30, 2015 10:39 pm

That looks uncomfortably close for my liking, even though it was initialized at 963 instead of 951mb.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#774 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 30, 2015 10:40 pm

Image
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Re: Re:

#775 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 30, 2015 10:40 pm

windnrain wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:Based on the full res GFS, initialization pressure was at 965 mb.


Why initialize it at 965?


Joaquin already about 15 mb stronger currently on the 0Z GFS initialization.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#776 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 30, 2015 10:41 pm

HiRes init

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#777 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 30, 2015 10:42 pm

24 hours
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Re: Re:

#778 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 30, 2015 10:43 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
windnrain wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:Based on the full res GFS, initialization pressure was at 965 mb.


Why initialize it at 965?


Models take in recon data and analyze satellite imagery from what I heard.


Data assimilation of a global model is so complex. When you combine resolution of the model and the sheer amount of data coming it, the central pressures of TC's can get smoothed out a bit during initialization. It won't really make an impact on the track forecast of the model.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#779 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 30, 2015 10:43 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#780 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 30, 2015 10:45 pm

SE of previous run and appears to be heading NE now. :)

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