ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#921 Postby **Alyono** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:33 am

EC shifted left at the longer time periods

about a 90 mile west shift at 120 hours

#922 Postby **brunota2003** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:40 am

brunota2003 wrote:I think I'm going to pull out a map and throw 30 darts at it, I'll call it the Bruno-Dart Ensemble. It looks like it'll be just as accurate...geeze!

Just thought I'd let everyone know that the Bruno-Dart Ensemble, composed of 30 members, ranged in results from landfall in NC to out to sea...even had 1 off map, whatever that means...*

*Please note: This ensemble does not really exist. Your results using this ensemble may vary.

PFD: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

bahamaswx · #923 Postby **bahamaswx** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:02 am

spiral wrote:[img]http://i61.tinypic.com/33zbvxt.png[img]

GFS gets this storm as far as 210 degree's off El salvador island before the re curve you would think if that pans out the system could get tangled up with the islands.

The Bahamas is--for all practical purposes--completely flat. He won't even notice the islands.

#924 Postby **xironman** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:11 am

Both the GFS and CMC are stronger with the surface high pushing down from Canada. Good luck to NHC folks, luckily they have one more major run before they get in the range of having to put up watches on the continental US.

#925 Postby **NDG** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 3:55 am

Amazing on how consistent and persistent the Euro has been on a turn away from the US.

#926 Postby **CronkPSU** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:50 am

GFS running yet?

#927 Postby **Alyono** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:51 am

yes, similar to 0Z so far. maybe a touch south

#928 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:52 am

06z GFS @ 48 hours.

Bit south east than 00z.

#929 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:53 am

06z GFS @ 72hrs

Moving NE.

ninel conde · #930 Postby **ninel conde** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:56 am

way out to sea. little effect on coast except some waves.

#931 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:57 am

ninel conde wrote:way out to sea. little effect on coast except some waves.

Easy. Hasn't cleared the east coast yet.

Blizzard96x · #932 Postby **Blizzard96x** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:58 am

ninel conde wrote:way out to sea. little effect on coast except some waves.

Yep, good trends on the GFS. Looks like US may luck out after all. Still something to monitor but nice having both ECMWF and GFS agreeing.

ninel conde · #933 Postby **ninel conde** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:58 am

trend is clear, and even if it scrapes cape cod it will be a noreaster by then

#934 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:58 am

06z GFS @ 84hrs

Finally starts moving north. East of 00z GFS.

#935 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 5:01 am

06z GFS @ 96 hrs

Well east of the 00z GFS during the same time frame.

#936 Postby **Alyono** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 5:01 am

moving west of north at 90 hours

#937 Postby **drezee** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 5:03 am

King Euro: "Hey GFS, everybody's got a Daddy...."

#938 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 5:04 am

Alyono wrote:moving west of north at 90 hours

Looks like it's going to barely clear NYC. Maybe a New England hit. Looks like it's still moving NNE to me.

ninel conde · #939 Postby **ninel conde** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 5:04 am

set up looked great for a hurricane hit, but it only takes small things to make a huge high to the north immaterial. i would gues the 12z GFS will be further east.

Blizzard96x · #940 Postby **Blizzard96x** » Thu Oct 01, 2015 5:05 am

drezee wrote:King Euro: "Hey GFS, everybody's got a Daddy...."

Euro saw this 2-3 days before any other model, amazing. Truly the best in these situations, saw Sandy too.

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