ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

[Weatherwatcher98]

King Euro: "Hey GFS, everybody's got a Daddy...."

[Blizzard96x]

moving west of north at 90 hours

Looks like it's going to barely clear NYC. Maybe a New England hit. Looks like it's still moving NNE to me.

And what makes you think GooFuS has a clue on this run? It didnt have one at 00z and it wont have one at 06z IMO.

[ninel conde]

once JB began to hedge his bets with reasons his forecast would be wrong, i figured we would get a minor noreaster at best.

[Alyono]

may be western Nova Scotia

[Kingarabian]

06 GFS @ 120 hrs



Looks like it's still heading NNE and it clears the east coast safely.

[xironman]

The GFS folds.

[Kingarabian]

moving west of north at 90 hours

Looks like it's going to barely clear NYC. Maybe a New England hit. Looks like it's still moving NNE to me.

And what makes you think GooFuS has a clue on this run? It didnt have one at 00z and it wont have one at 06z IMO.

Uhh. It has all the G-IV data now and a better handle on the steering. It's okay to make mistakes as long as you fix them. It's becoming more and more likely now that the Euro solution is verifying and that's why I buy this run.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ninel conde]

moving west of north at 90 hours

Looks like it's going to barely clear NYC. Maybe a New England hit. Looks like it's still moving NNE to me.

And what makes you think GooFuS has a clue on this run? It didnt have one at 00z and it wont have one at 06z IMO.

I think it has a clue now. should be near bermuda at 12Z

[Weatherwatcher98]

The GFS folds.

I just has a feeling it would especially after that loop run.

[Blizzard96x]

Uhh. It has all the G-IV data now and a better handle on the steering. It's okay to make mistakes as long as you fix them. It's becoming more and more likely now that the Euro solution is verifying and that's why I buy this run.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yes, and the Euro is no where close to the 6z GFS even though they both miss. Point is, throw the GFS out, still trending.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Great News if this Verifies

[ninel conde]

good news for bermuda is it should weaken alot as it moves OTS.

[Alyono]

looking at the 500mb heights, there is a greater weakness with the remnants of Ida on the new MU. One issue, that area is not showing any signs of development.

May be letting Joaquin to escape a bit to the east. Something to monitor

Also, the cutoff over the SE USA is weaker on the new MU. 500mb heights are 40DM higher

[cycloneye]

Wow,the Euro really nailed it and deserves the title of "King of models".

[Kingarabian]

Uhh. It has all the G-IV data now and a better handle on the steering. It's okay to make mistakes as long as you fix them. It's becoming more and more likely now that the Euro solution is verifying and that's why I buy this run.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yes, and the Euro is no where close to the 6z GFS even though they both miss. Point is, throw the GFS out, still trending.

Well its been trending since 00z. The GFS runs 4 times a day so one can see where trends point based on previous runs. I don't expect the GFS to come toe to toe with the Euro. I expect a compromise.

[Alyono]

EC shows a much more significant 500mb weakness with the remnants of Ida. Joaquin simply ignores the strong cutoff low over the SE USA

We need dropsondes there... near Ida

[Kingarabian]

EC shows a much more significant 500mb weakness with the remnants of Ida. Joaquin simply ignores the strong cutoff low over the SE USA

We need dropsondes there... near Ida

What about Joaquin continuing to move south of the current forecast? Doesn't that dictate the track to be more NE?

[Alyono]

EC shows a much more significant 500mb weakness with the remnants of Ida. Joaquin simply ignores the strong cutoff low over the SE USA

We need dropsondes there... near Ida

What about Joaquin continuing to move south of the current forecast? Doesn't that dictate the track to be more NE?

it's due to the 500mb low. It is very large on the ECMWF. If that weakness is not as pronounced, it will hook into the coast. That is the forecast issue. What happens with that weakness

Had the EC not have shifted right initially, it likely would have had a landfall as that is one strong cutoff

[Kingarabian]

EC shows a much more significant 500mb weakness with the remnants of Ida. Joaquin simply ignores the strong cutoff low over the SE USA

We need dropsondes there... near Ida

What about Joaquin continuing to move south of the current forecast? Doesn't that dictate the track to be more NE?

it's due to the 500mb low. It is very large on the ECMWF. If that weakness is not as pronounced, it will hook into the coast. That is the forecast issue. What happens with that weakness

Had the EC not have shifted right initially, it likely would have had a landfall as that is one strong cutoff

And that shift to the right is caused by Ida?

[Alyono]

And that shift to the right is caused by Ida?

looks like partially